ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:14 am

AL, 96, 2018091112, , BEST, 0, 394N, 398W, 40, 0, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 96, 2018091118, , BEST, 0, 381N, 395W, 45, 0, EX, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 96, 2018091200, , BEST, 0, 370N, 398W, 45, 1012, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 96, 2018091206, , BEST, 0, 365N, 403W, 45, 1012, EX, 34, NEQ, 150, 60, 60, 150, 1017, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,


Thread at Talking Tropics that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119893
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby HurricaneBelle » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:32 am

August: This season is boring, it's going to be a dud:

September:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:14 am

Just imagine if somehow we are able to get 6 named storms alive at the same time :wink:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Siker » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:29 am

This is almost definitely a TC now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:32 am

Has it disconnected from the trough enough already to be considered a separate entity yet? Incredibly quick if so
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:57 am

Will we have Fujiwara of 96L and Helene???
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:33 pm

2 PM TWO: 90%/90%

2. Satellite images indicate that a strong area of low pressure located
a little more than 600 miles west-southwest of the Azores is rapidly
becoming better organized and a subtropical or tropical storm
appears to be forming. If this trend continues, advisories will be
initiated later today or tonight. The low is forecast to move toward
the southwest for the next couple of days, and then turn to the
northeast behind Hurricane Helene. For more information, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:04 pm

Might be the fastest kink in trough to subtropical/tropical cyclone transition I recall ever watching. Definitely looks the part though. Now if only Isaac could hold off degenerating in an open wave long enough to let the Gulf thing develop, can we get 5 active storms?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:13 pm

Almost there

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:27 pm

SubTropical Storm Joyce at 5 PM.

AL, 10, 2018091218, , BEST, 0, 345N, 417W, 40, 1006, SS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 100, 1017, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOYCE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, TRANSITIONED, alB62018 to al102018,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion: SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE at 5 PM

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:31 pm

Yes indeed we have Joyce , now a subtropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:SubTropical Storm Joyce at 5 PM.

AL, 10, 2018091218, , BEST, 0, 345N, 417W, 40, 1006, SS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 100, 1017, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOYCE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, TRANSITIONED, alB62018 to al102018,

Where does this info come from?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion: SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE at 5 PM

#14 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:32 pm

Wow. We have 6 systems active in the Atlantic basin at once!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:38 pm

tomatkins wrote:
cycloneye wrote:SubTropical Storm Joyce at 5 PM.

AL, 10, 2018091218, , BEST, 0, 345N, 417W, 40, 1006, SS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 100, 1017, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOYCE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, TRANSITIONED, alB62018 to al102018,

Where does this info come from?


http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk

Just go down the list and click on the bal102018.dat file
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion: SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE at 5 PM

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:45 pm

Year of the sub-tropics.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion: SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE at 5 PM

#17 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:00 pm

This will be the 10th named storm of the season. I think my prediction of 12 storms is in jeopardy.
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#18 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:12 pm

Wouldn't it be mentioned on the NHC home page?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:12 pm

tomatkins wrote:
cycloneye wrote:SubTropical Storm Joyce at 5 PM.

AL, 10, 2018091218, , BEST, 0, 345N, 417W, 40, 1006, SS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 100, 1017, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOYCE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, TRANSITIONED, alB62018 to al102018,

Where does this info come from?


That was insanely quick--didn't the low itself just form yesterday?
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Re: ATL: JOYCE - Sub-Tropical Storm - Discussion

#20 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:14 pm

As far as I can tell, this will be the first time since 2008 that the Atlantic has had four named storms (e.g tropical storm/subtropical storm/hurricane) at the same time. Here's the list of dates since 1950 where this has occurred.


19610911 1200
19610911 1800
19710912 0600
19710912 1200
19950829 0000
19950829 0600
19950829 1200
19950829 1800
19950830 0000
19950830 0600
19950830 1200
19950830 1800
19950831 0000
19950831 0600
19950831 1200
19950831 1800
19950901 0000
19980924 0000
19980924 0600
19980924 1200
19980924 1800
19980925 0000
19980925 0600
19980925 1200
19980925 1800
19980926 0000
19980926 0600
19980926 1200
19980926 1800
19980927 0000
20040923 0000
20040923 0600
20040923 1200
20080902 0600
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