SIO: 01 - Tropical Depression (01S)

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SIO: 01 - Tropical Depression (01S)

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:41 am

Just for the record, there’s an area of disturbed weather (previously tagged INVEST 90S) in the Southern Indian Ocean which has been designated Tropical Disturbance 01 by Meteo France.

90S INVEST 180914 1200 9.6S 73.5E SHEM 30 1000


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2018/09/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 73.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/09/15 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 24H: 2018/09/15 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36H: 2018/09/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H: 2018/09/16 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 60H: 2018/09/17 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/09/17 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/09/18 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=2.0
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER BUT FAILED TO MAINTAIN. THE CENTER ALTHOUGH LESS VISIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON THE LAST MW IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN AGREEMENT WITH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AND THIS FORWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINU UNTIL THE WEEK-END AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE ODF THE STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS MIXED REGARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT: FOR THE NEGATIVE ASPECTS, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP (FROM CIMSS) CLEARLY SHOW DRY MID LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTER CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS, IMPEDING THE HUMIDITY CONVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AS SEEN ON THE WINDFIELD, IS POOR EQUATORWARD AND GOOD ON THE TRADEWINDS SIDE. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN IS CURRENTLY SUFFICIENT, BUT FALLS RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 10S.
MORE FAVORABLE FACTORS EXIST WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT (EQUATORIAL WAVES ACTIVITY .. AND SPECIFICALLY THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS). AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCED CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN A POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH THE JOST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXCELLENT INITIAL DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, ONE CAN NOT RULED OUT SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING THAT TIME.
MONDAY AND BEYOND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT, WITH TILL SOME SHEAR AND MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS (LITTLE OR NO OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SOUTH OF 12S). GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME WITH A REMNANT LOW THAT SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. NEXT ADVISORY TOMORROW AT 06 UTC.


Image
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SIO: 01 - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 90S)

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:43 am

Official forecast :darrow:

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Re: SIO: 01 - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 90S)

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:33 pm

Heh, saw it yesterday and meant to make a thread for it but got sidetracked. JTWC actually has a TCFA up for it right now.

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 74.3E TO 11.5S 68.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 74.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140411Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES ON THE 26C ISOTHERM. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 90S AS A WEAK, COMPACT DISTURBANCE WITH A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: 01 - Tropical Disturbance (01S)

#4 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:48 pm

01S ONE 180915 0000 9.9S 72.1E SHEM 35 1007
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Re: SIO: 01 - Tropical Disturbance (01S)

#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:01 am

JTWC has it as a 45kt TS, while MFR only upgraded it to a Tropical Depression.

01S ONE 180915 1200 10.7S 70.1E SHEM 45 1002

Image

WTIO30 FMEE 151224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2018/09/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 70.0 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 40 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/09/16 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/09/16 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/09/17 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/09/17 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/09/18 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/09/18 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CHANGING IN CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND
LEAVES SUPPLYING A CONSTRAINT FROM THE DRY AIR WHILE THE CIRCULATION
OF LOW LEVEL IS WELL DEFINED. ON THE LATEST MOMENTS, THE DEEP
CONVECTION TAKES A LITTLE MORE EFFECT.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT A CONSTANT
SPEED OF ORDER OF 9KT OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES UNTIL AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MONDAY AND BEYOND, THE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A WEST-NORTH-WEST ORIENTATION, ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY
ITS TRACK WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE REGARDS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR LESS THAN 24H. WITH ENVIRONMENT RATHER DRY
IN THE OUTER PART OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTORS, AND A MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
TROUBLE MAINTAINING A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION FOR MORE THAN 24H.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXCELLENT INITIAL DEFINITION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, ONE CAN NOT RULED OUT SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING
THAT TIME, BUT NOT ABOVE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE. FROM MONDAY,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN A MORE MID-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT,
WITH TILL SOME SHEAR AND MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. NEXT ADVISORY TOMORROW AT 06 UTC.
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54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel


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