WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

It would be interesting if this falls apart, it would be a big bust on the models

[1900hurricane]

It reminds me of Goni ‘15 a bit with how upwelling is getting to it. JTWC’s current intensity and short term forecast is likely too high. It isn’t doomed though, provided it can maintain decent structure. Goni ‘15 came back pretty quickly once it began moving again, restrengthening from a category 1 to a category 4.

[Highteeld]

JTWC 15z update still says 130 knots. I have no idea. Huge overestimation.

[Hayabusa]

2018SEP25 161000 5.1 953.5 92.4 4.6 4.4 2.3 0.7T/6hr ON ON OFF OFF 10.41 -52.53 CRVBND N/A 75.2 20.21 -128.95 ARCHER HIM-8 27.2

[WAcyclone]

Alexander Gerst just posted some awesome images of Trami taken from the ISS. These images have a resolution of more than 20 megapixels so you could make quite large posters with these

Here are the direct links to the 20 MP versions:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn9ITw-XsAAX4n7.jpg:orig

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn9IVLJW0AAFPoH.jpg:orig

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dn9IXA_XkAID1hs.jpg:orig



 https://twitter.com/Astro_Alex/status/1044633209454174213

[Highteeld]

95 knots?

[Hayabusa]

It could've been nice if the ISS was also able to do that during Mangkhut

[1900hurricane]

I'd do 130 kt for 06Z, 120 kt for 12Z, and 105 kt now (18Z) personally.

[Hayabusa]

28W TRAMI 180925 1800 20.3N 128.9E WPAC 115 932

[1900hurricane]

The outer eyewall structure is probably the one the storm will build around once it gets moving again.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. ADDITIONALLY, FEEDER BANDS HAVE BEGUN
TO UNRAVEL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 32 NM
EYE WHERE THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115 KNOTS. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN IS NOW IMPACTING THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. TY 28W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT RECEDED
TO THE EAST AND WEAKENED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT OR MAY
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 24, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. THE WEAKENING TREND - DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH - WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM AND REDUCE THE
SYSTEM TO 95 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY
FROM ITS COLD WAKE, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE;
PLUS, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SURGE, FUELING A SECONDARY
INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY TRAMI IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 120, TY 28W WILL REACH THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KYUSHU, JAPAN. THE SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE
WILL CONTINUE AND BRING THE SYSTEM TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE JAPANESE
ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, AT 95 KNOTS, THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL ENVELOPE IS AT ITS NARROWEST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL TRACK UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC LATTER TAU TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

28W TRAMI 180926 0000 20.7N 129.0E WPAC 110 941

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER
RATE, AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND UNRAVELING FEEDER BANDS.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 31 NM EYE WHERE THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115 KNOTS AND T5.5/102 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN IS IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST
TO WESTERN SIDE OF TY 28W. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT RECEDED
TO THE EAST AND WEAKENED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR WILL RE-BUILD
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE WEAKENING
TREND - DUE TO THE SUBSIDING EFFECT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH - WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM AND REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO 100 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 36, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS COLD WAKE,
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE; PLUS, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WILL SURGE,
FUELING A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE SOLE
OUTLIER TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, TY TRAMI IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU
120, TY 28W WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE JAPANESE ISLANDS WILL
GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120, IT WILL
BECOME A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND
FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODEL ENVELOPE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT AT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INITIAL TRACK
AND SPEED UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC LATTER TAU TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

Looks more like a 85-knot category-2 typhoon to me. JTWC as usual overestimates weakening storms due to Dvorak constraints.

[NotoSans]

Japan seem to have conducted a recon mission yesterday afternoon. See if they will release some results to the public later.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 28W REMAINS SYMMETRIC BUT
THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE EYE, WHICH IS NOW CLOUD
FILLED, HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 260600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM RJTD
AND HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CI OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
260610Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TY
28W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 28W IS DRIFTING
NORTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE WEST AND A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR TO THE WEST WILL
BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW FOR TY 28W
TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PARTIALLY DUE TO UPWELLING, WILL ALLOW TY 28W
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TY 28W WILL ENCOUNTER
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY TAU 48, ALLOWING FOR A MINOR
PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE ALL AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W
WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD OF 300 NM
BY TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM A NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. TY 28W
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Looks like Trami is beginning to regroup now that it is beginning to move a little bit more.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TY 28W MAINTAINS A WIDE EYE, WITH RESURGENT CONVECTION IN THE
EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE WIDE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS, BETWEEN MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KTS) TO T5.5 (102
KTS), AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A 261705Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 91 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 28W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW,
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS, ALTHOUGH THE SLOW MOTION OF TY 28W IS CAUSING UPWELLING
AND REDUCING THE AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) FOR THE SYSTEM,
CONTRIBUTING TO ITS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. TY 28W IS
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE WEST AND A SECOND
STR LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY,
CAUGHT IN A BALANCE BETWEEN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, AND THE
UNFAVORABLE LOWER OHC. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL
BUILD, BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE, AND ALLOW TY 28W TO
INCREASE FORWARD MOTION AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. BY
TAU 36, TY 28W WILL ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF WARM (28-30 C) SSTS THAT
IT HAS NOT ALREADY CHURNED UP, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 110 KTS BY TAU 72. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, WITH NAVGEM A
NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST DUE TO IT BUILDING IN A MORE ROBUST STR
TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, PASSING
CLOSE TO OKINAWA AROUND TAU 60. THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDING CLOSER TO OKINAWA, FAVORING A
TIGHTER RECURVE SCENARIO. DUE TO THE 360 NM MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MAINLAND JAPAN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND IS PULLED BY A
PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND EVENTUAL LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. TY 28W WILL BE EMBEDDED IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 96, AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, BUT MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TRACK SPEED. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/wx_radar/status/1044945517329952768