WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#181 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:22 am

euro6208 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:ADT says not a T7.0 until it has a CMG ring, only Mangkhut so far managed to meet the requirements of ADT to be a CI cat 5, let's see if Trami can achieve that :lol:


Forget ADT. It did very poorly with Mangkhut.

ADT in the WPAC is very much different from the Western Hemisphere. Lower numbers overall for some reason.


I have no doubt this is a cat 5, I'm just making a sarcastic comment about the underestimating ADT :lol:
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#182 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:25 am

Looks like the Chinese have Trami at 920 mb right now. I'm not sure how this is not being ranked as a cat 5 yet. Too much data in favor of cat 5 vs cat 4 right now.

Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#183 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:26 am

Now awaiting that infamous 7.0 dvorak that the WPAC is known for. How many Cat 5's rapidly intensified and seems to only peak at 140 knots like something got in the way?...Wish we got recon.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#184 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:32 am

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
37NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. A 241201Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY REVEALS AN
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ALSO INDICATED IN THE UW-CIMSS P-
ERC GRAPHIC) WITH CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A MOAT FEATURE EVIDENT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW, KNES
AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS). DESPITE
WEAKENING OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST, UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA. STY 28W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY TRAMI IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12, THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AND WESTERN JAPAN CREATING A BROAD, PERSISTENT BREAK IN
THE STR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN AND SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE ERODES QUICKLY.
TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE STR
SLOWLY REBUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM RETURNS TO A
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 95NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72,
HOWEVER, TRACKERS VARY FROM A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK / TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE TAU 12 TO TAU 72 PERIOD WITH
AN ERRATIC TRACK POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUPER
TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
SPREAD AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK WITH A
560NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. IN GENERAL, THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE
STR TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE,
HOWEVER, EACH MODEL INDICATES SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT TRACK
FORECASTS FROM TAIWAN TO OKINAWA. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA / MIYAKO-JIMA REGION
AS SUPPORTED BY THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. STY 28W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#185 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:21 am

:D
TPPN10 PGTW 241509

A. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 19.46N

D. 129.42E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1201Z 19.27N 129.73E GPMI


LOWE
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#186 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:45 am

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 28W
Monday 24sep18 Time: 1243 UTC
Latitude: 19.34 Longitude: 129.62
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 900 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 155 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -7.7 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 6.76
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.86
RMW: 23 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1004
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 24 Time (UTC): 1200


Image


It's undeniably a cat 5
2 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#187 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:11 am

915 hPa 105 kt can it make to 905? :double:
TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 24 September 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 24 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°30' (19.5°)
E129°20' (129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 370 km (200 NM)
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#188 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:07 pm

Strongest run I have seen from the UKmet ever. Might deepen another 20 mb... wow!

Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#189 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:12 pm

Its strength and symmetry are undeniable


Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#190 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:32 pm

18z Best Track up to 140 knots and 916 mb.
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

edu2703
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 345
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:15 pm

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#191 Postby edu2703 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:07 pm

JTWC advisory #17

Up to 140 kts

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#192 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 4:51 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 36 NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE FEEDER BANDS HAVE
BEEN STRIPPED SHORT AND TUCKED INTO A MORE COMPACT AND CONSOLIDATED
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT AND
NEAR-CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. STY
28W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL INTO A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SHARPER
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. STY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DIG INTO THE STR,
CAUSING THE POLEWARD TURN AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE TRACK
SPEED. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY REBUILD AND DRIVE
THE SYSTEM BACK TO A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR-TERM, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 145
KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING, DOWN TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH THE MAJORITY INDICATING THE POLEWARD TURN
AND JGSM AND NVGM OFFERING A STRAIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND A
NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE POLEWARD TRACK AMONG THE MAJORITY MEMBERS. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY JGSM/NVGM SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY TRAMI WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER A REBUILT STR, AND AFTER TAU 96, WILL CREST THE STR RIDGE AND
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL EXTEND UP TO TAU 96
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS; HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 96,
A RESURGENCE IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES WILL FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE, REACHING 115
KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT EVEN MORE IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, AS WELL.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#193 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:10 pm

0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#194 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:18 pm

Looks like the outer eyewall previously noted on microwave imagery may be fading or melding into the inner based on recent passes.

Image
3 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#195 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:23 pm

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:


Image
1 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#196 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:24 pm

0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2097
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#197 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:26 pm




Was just wondering the same thing. Has there been any research on this phenomenon?

EMC = Eyewall Meld Cycle... is this a thing yet? lol.
2 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#198 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:12 pm

It's Visible image time again.

Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#199 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:13 pm

Irma's peak winds was 160 knots but because there was recon, could Trami do the same but on DT? :wink:
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#200 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:41 pm

IR eye temp is getting very close to 20ºC. If it manages to get there, we'll be 4/4 with category 5s this year.
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests