WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#241 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:03 pm

Found this interesting picture. Looks like another Super Micro TC inside the eye of Trami. :lol:

Image
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#242 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:23 am

Image
Image

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 28W MAINTAINS A WIDE EYE, AND IS MAINTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WIDE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS), AND
BELOW THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS), AND SLIGHTLY BELOW A
262000Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 93 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TY 28W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A
PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, ALTHOUGH THE SLOW MOTION
OF TY 28W IS ALLOWING FOR UPWELLING, WHICH IS REDUCING THE
AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) FOR THE SYSTEM, LEADING IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN THE MIDST OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TY 28W IS ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WHILE IN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE WEST AND A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY,
CAUGHT IN A BALANCE BETWEEN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, AND THE
UNFAVORABLE LOWER OHC. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR TO THE EAST WILL
BUILD, BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE, AND ALLOW TY 28W TO
INCREASE FORWARD MOTION AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. BY
TAU 36, TY 28W WILL ENCOUNTER AN AREA OF WARM (28-30 C) SSTS THAT
IT HAS NOT ALREADY CHURNED UP, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 110 KTS BY TAU 72. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR-TERM,
WITH NAVGEM A NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST DUE TO IT BUILDING IN A
MORE ROBUST STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TY 28W WILL HAVE ROUNDED
THE RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE YELLOW SEA REGION WILL ALSO
ENHANCE OUTFLOW, CONTRIBUTING TO THE RE-INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE 368 NM MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST, PULLED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND AFOREMENTIONED
PASSING TROUGH. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND EVENTUAL LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. TY 28W WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU
96, AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, BUT MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TRACK SPEED. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#243 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:17 am

From what I've heard lowest pressure recorded by recon was 917mb. Given that Trami has slightly weakened before the first recon flight, central pressure during its peak was likely 910mb, consistent with satellite intensity estimates.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#244 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:00 am

ADT is really struggling with the screening type right now. I wonder if the large and slightly irregular eye is too much for it to grasp.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#245 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:21 pm

That eye is one of the most interesting things I've seen. Supposedly it's called a Hub Cloud. There's still so much we don't know about hurricanes.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1045323608153821185


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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#246 Postby NotoSans » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:58 pm

Dropsonde data are released via the link below:
https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/RJTD/Alph ... r_Invalid/

Some extrapolation is needed when estimating central pressure using the data since the dropsondes have only been able to report the pressure very close to the surface, but not exactly at surface level.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#247 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:23 pm

:uarrow: How to decode that.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#248 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:26 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 28W
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WIDE AND RAGGED EYE AND THAT CLOUD TOPS AROUND
IT HAVE COOLED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE LARGE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON RJTD AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS), AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND A 271735Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
83 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 28W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN
28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS
DIMINISHED DUE TO THE FACT THAT TY 28W HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY AND HAS CAUSED UPWELLING IN THE AREA. TY 28W REMAINS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE IN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE WEST AND A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE EAST,
ALTHOUGH IT HAS MOVED AT 5 KTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL POSITIONS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT
REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED STRS. THE STR TO
THE EAST IS BUILDING IN AND WILL ALLOW FOR TY 28W TO ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AROUND TAU 24, TY 28W WILL
ROUND THE STR AXIS AND THEN START TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. AS TY 28W
ROUNDS THE STR IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS IT TAPS INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW TY 28W TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 46
NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH JAPAN. AS TY 28W ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING AN EXPANDING, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TY 28W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BUT THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#249 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:21 pm

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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#250 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:32 pm

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1045500321341079553




Surf-forecast.com is expecting 15 meters at the "Castles" spot at the southern tip of Okinawa.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#251 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:50 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 28W
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WIDE AND RAGGED EYE AND IS MAINTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LARGE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE WIDTH OF
THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON KNES AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A
272246Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 92 KTS, AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE RJTD
ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY
28W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS,
WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLACKENED DUE TO THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST MOVING AWAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NOW THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF
28W HAS INCREASED, IT IS LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT UNDERNEATH IT. TY 28W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BURGEONING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE STR
TO ITS EAST THROUGH TAU 12. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, TY 28W WILL
ROUND THE STR AXIS AND THEN START TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TY
28W ROUNDS THE STR, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA, ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOWING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KTS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS
AND LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES JAPAN WILL COMPETE
WITH THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TY 28W. TY
28W WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 30 NM OF MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 36,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W WILL HAVE TRANSITED OVER HONSHU AND
PASSED BACK OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. LAND INTERACTION,
STRONG VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND COOLER SSTS BELOW
26 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TY 28W WEAKENING TO 55 KTS BY
TAU 72. TY 28W WILL HAVE ALSO COMPLETED ETT BY TAU 72 AND WILL
DISPLAY FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND AN EXPANDED, ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BUT THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN TRACK SPEED. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#252 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:14 pm

That eye's huge.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#253 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#254 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:54 am

mrbagyo wrote::uarrow: How to decode that.

Always good to have visual aids to present the data :P The graphics below are made by my friend:
Image
Image
Image
Note that SLP values were extrapolated from the pressure reported at the lowest level, and the estimate may be off by a few mb. Nevertheless, the recon missions provided very valuable data regarding the central pressure.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#255 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:59 am

Note that the winds data should not be used to estimate MSW as dropsonde winds are more representative of gusts and there’s undersampling in the eyewall area. Nevertheless, we can use the central pressure to derive MSW using the KZC wind-pressure relationship.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#256 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:01 am

:uarrow: thank you Notosans!!!
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#257 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:24 am


That's gotta be some kind of record.

Ah, nope, 230mi is the record.

My goodness...
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#258 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:53 am

Despite improvement in satellite presentation, central pressure seems to have risen to 960mb. Unfortunately today is the last recon mission by Japan into Typhoon Trami. We may get some additional data from surface observations in the Ryukyu islands though.
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#259 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:08 am

Image
Image


WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY
28W CONTINUES TO HAVE A WIDE AND RAGGED EYE AND HAS MAINTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 280600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LARGE CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND AN ADT CI OF T4.9 (87 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 28W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY
28W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TY 28W
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 28W TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 105
KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TY 28W AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. TY 28W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 48 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. TY 28W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 28W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon

#260 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:40 am

Image

Impressively large eye.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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