WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Underestimation continues.

28W TRAMI 180925 0000 19.5N 128.7E WPAC 140 916

[1900hurricane]

Ehh, I have no qualms with the 140 kt estimate. That's actually the same number I would use in this case.

[Highteeld]

WP, 28, 2018091912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1480E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 325, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018091918, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1474E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 350, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092000, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1468E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 280, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092006, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1462E, 20, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092012, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1456E, 20, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1451E, 25, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 185, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpG22018 to wp282018,
WP, 28, 2018092100, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1442E, 30, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 160, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, S,
WP, 28, 2018092106, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1434E, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 85, 30, 70, 1006, 160, 65, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, M,
WP, 28, 2018092112, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1425E, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 50, 105, 1008, 170, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, M,
WP, 28, 2018092118, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1413E, 45, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 145, 145, 65, 120, 1006, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092200, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1402E, 50, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 40, 40, 105, 1006, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1389E, 50, 985, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 50, 50, 105, 1007, 175, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1389E, 50, 985, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 35, 35, 60, 1007, 175, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1375E, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 60, 55, 115, 1007, 175, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1375E, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 45, 45, 55, 1007, 175, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 100, 70, 120, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 50, NEQ, 65, 50, 30, 50, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 95, 75, 135, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 50, NEQ, 85, 45, 45, 80, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 34, NEQ, 170, 75, 75, 135, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 50, NEQ, 50, 30, 30, 50, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 34, NEQ, 160, 100, 105, 150, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 50, NEQ, 90, 50, 55, 80, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 25, 30, 45, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 155, 115, 140, 170, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 85, 60, 75, 95, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 30, 40, 50, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 180, 115, 120, 165, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 100, 60, 65, 95, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 55, 30, 35, 50, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 34, NEQ, 175, 145, 120, 165, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 50, NEQ, 100, 80, 65, 95, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 45, 35, 50, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 34, NEQ, 195, 170, 155, 180, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 50, NEQ, 110, 95, 85, 100, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 34, NEQ, 205, 180, 150, 190, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 50, NEQ, 115, 95, 85, 105, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 34, NEQ, 185, 165, 150, 175, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 50, NEQ, 105, 95, 85, 100, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,

[1900hurricane]

Where are you grabbing the full ATCF b-deck from?

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/parkertwc/status/1044385661392949248

[euro6208]

The expected slowdown is happening. It's stationary at the moment. Hate to be under that ferocious eyewall for hours.

[Hayabusa]

TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 25 September 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 370 km (200 NM)

[Highteeld]

Where are you grabbing the full ATCF b-deck from?

DM sent

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If anything, 140kt is generous for a typhoon whose eye is neither embedded nor surrounded by a white ring anymore. Upwelling will become a major problem soon.

[1900hurricane]

Satellite presentation actually reminds me of Igor '10 during the initial 130 kt peak.

[Highteeld]

New ERC attempt

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
18/
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN ENLARGED 39-NM EYE. THE MSI ANIMATION ALSO
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN. THE INITIAL POSITION,
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FROM THE EYE
FEATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR TILT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 242145Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK FIXES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. STY 28W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL INTO A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR EVEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL AREA AS THE STEERING STR IS NOW
BEING ERODED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY REBUILD AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM BACK TO A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE NEAR-TERM AND MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS UP
TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING, DOWN TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH THE MAJORITY INDICATING THE POLEWARD TURN
AND JGSM AND NVGM OFFERING A STRAIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND A
NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE POLEWARD TRACK AMONG THE MAJORITY MEMBERS. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY JGSM/NVGM SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY TRAMI WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER A REBUILT STR, AND AFTER TAU 96, WILL CREST THE STR RIDGE AND
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, A RESURGENCE IN THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL FUEL A
SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE, REACHING 115 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT EVEN MORE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, AS WELL.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

A shrinking CDO diameter on visible imagery may already be an early sign of upwelling.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the WPAC has started a streak of spawning round, clear-eyed Cat 5's starting with Jebi in late August. I wonder how long this streak will last after Trami.

[Highteeld]

There's been so much activity lately that nearly the entire Philippines Sea is below average due to upwelling. Looks like another large storm could develop behind Trami, too

[euro6208]

Huge disparity among the models for track.

[Highteeld]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09250404
SATCON: MSLP = 926 hPa MSW = 124 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 122.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 113 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -4.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 936 hPa 117 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP250440
CIMSS AMSU: 915 hPa 138 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09250113
ATMS: 922.6 hPa 127.4 knots Date: 09250404
SSMIS: 922.6 hPa 127.4 knots Date: 09250404
CIRA ATMS: 939 hPa 117 knots Date: 09231623

Highly doubt this is a Cat 5 anymore.

WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 34, NEQ, 190, 170, 170, 175, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 50, NEQ, 110, 95, 95, 100, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 55, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1044561395436728320

[Highteeld]

It's rotting away right in front of our eyes. ERC + Upwelling is taking a toll right now. Looks like a low-end Cat 3 right now.

[Highteeld]

WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 34, NEQ, 185, 180, 175, 175, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 50, NEQ, 105, 100, 95, 95, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 64, NEQ, 70, 65, 60, 60, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,

I don't buy these data at all