ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2018091800, , BEST, 0, 72N, 379W, 20, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091806, , BEST, 0, 73N, 391W, 20, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091812, , BEST, 0, 74N, 403W, 20, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091818, , BEST, 0, 76N, 415W, 25, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091900, , BEST, 0, 79N, 427W, 25, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091906, , BEST, 0, 83N, 438W, 25, 1009, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 170, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091912, , BEST, 0, 87N, 449W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 70, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS031, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
AL, 97, 2018091918, , BEST, 0, 91N, 460W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, SPAWNINVEST, al752018 to al972018,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119960&p=2713524#p2713524

[Nimbus]

Some convection tonight on the infrared glad the models are running.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A westward-moving tropical wave is producing a small but
concentrated area of thunderstorms about 900 miles east of the
Windward Islands. Some slow development of this disturbance will be
possible through early Friday before environmental conditions become
quite unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Friday and
continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Emmett_Brown]

The GFS shows a lot of shear over the E Caribbean and the Windward Islands in 48-72 hours, which is probably why the global models dissipate it.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2018092000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 469W, 25, 1009, LO

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not seeing this becoming anything

[GeneratorPower]

Not seeing this becoming anything

Username checks out...

[floridasun78]

system form going were no hurr allow in Caribbean shear await

[Sciencerocks]

After isaac I am too scared to consider the possibility that this could form if it got into the Caribbean. The hostility of the shear and stability of the air mass scares the hell out of me.

[floridasun78]

After isaac I am too scared to consider the possibility that this could form if it got into the Caribbean. The hostility of the shear and stability of the air mass scares the hell out of me.

not thing be scare shear your friend it waiting for 97 come into Caribbean

[EquusStorm]

Oh wow those last few frames are very interesting, this ramped up fast. If that trend holds I wouldn't be shocked to see a special TWO in a couple hours noting immediate formation

[AutoPenalti]

Looks mid level to me, I don't see any indication yet of a closed low.

[EquusStorm]

Might have just enough time to spin one up eventually if convection stays consistent and the mid level vort stays pretty intact though I suppose

[NDG]

Good spin this morning but not sure if it has a closed surface circulation.

[GCANE]

Max vort at the 700mb level.
Riding along a shear axis, with most of the convection shear-induced.
Watching if this doesn't wash out.

[GCANE]

Moderately high rain rate

[Nimbus]

Looks like there might be some low level inflow pulling in from the southwest but NHC said there was a very unfavorable environment ahead. Both HWRF and GFS dissipated it in the Caribbean in the early runs and the 00Z runs don't show a very robust circulation early.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A concentrated area of thunderstorms associated with a westward-
moving tropical wave is located about 850 miles east of the
Windward Islands. Although this disturbance shows some signs of
organization on satellite imagery, there is no evidence of a surface
circulation at this time. Some additional development is possible
today before upper-level winds become highly unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation starting tonight and continuing through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

First appareance on SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/0545 UTC 10.5N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 97L

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 97L up to 1.5/1.5

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/1145 UTC 10.8N 48.1W T1.5/1.5 97L