ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#21 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:17 am

Definite rotation with plenty of squalls near the center. Can't tell if the rotation is at the surface, though. ASCAT usually avoids weak systems in favor of those with big eyes. Moving into increasingly strong westerly wind shear as it nears the NE Caribbean this weekend.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#22 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:47 am

Very strong signature on TPW, moving north of 10N.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#23 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:49 am

GCANE wrote:Very strong signature on TPW, moving north of 10N.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5


The low-level layers (Surface to 500mb) are all picking up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#24 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:37 am

"Bones, why do I appear to be throwing arc clouds?"
"Damn it Kirk, i'm a doctor not a physicist; Well Scotty, now you've done it!"
"Aye, the haggis is in the fire for sure, captain"!
"Scotty, am I still cloaked?"
"Aye Captain, NHC cannot see any evidence of banding, low level westerly inflow, or co-located convection near your LLC. Nothing but ripping upper level shear".
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:48 am

It does not appear to have a closed surface circulation per the latest ASCAT data.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#26 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:48 am

A lot of ice with this one.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 110&y=8592

Watching if that'll wash out the SAL and keep it as a protected pouch.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plit&time=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#27 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:52 am

I'd be flat out shocked if it makes it past the unfavorable area. NHC doesn't seem to think it stands a chance anyway, regardless of how it looks right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#28 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:57 am

Max wind at 700mb is 35 knots per multi-satellite estimates.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#29 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:10 am

Image

Maybe they'll lower the near-term chances for development to 10%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#30 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:22 am

https://i.imgur.com/14Y4hfJ.gifv

Trying to fire new convection near the COC but still no classic CDO. Regardless, it does appear to be very close to having a closed circulation at the surface. I know this much, i've seen wretched shear zones in the Gulf that have curiously been upgraded. 97L poses no immediate threat to anyone as long as it gains latitude and would seemingly be impacted by more hostile conditions then the current upper level shear that's evident right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#31 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:00 pm

Really putting up a valiant fight against pretty oppressive upper level conditions. I'd guess it might have one more diurnal cycle late this afternoon/evening to fire enough intense convection and aid the low level inflow to produce a more identifiable LLC. I'd guess "T" numbers might improve to 2.0 before shear just takes it's final toll tomorrow but because of it's limited life span the odd's of being tagged a T.D. seem remote.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:50 pm

2 PM TWO:

Satellite imagery shows that showers and thunderstorms associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave located about 750 miles east of
the Windward Islands have become less organized over the last
several hours. There is no evidence of a surface circulation at this
time, and a combination of dry air and strong upper-level winds are
expected to make development of this system unlikely while it moves
westward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#33 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:12 pm

:uarrow: Oh ye of little faith lol. Sure, maybe there's arc clouds flying outward at the speed of light, 20-25 kt. winds undercutting it's western quadrant, and fast approaching dry air to it's north and northwest. But, do you known what 97L has that so many other waves have lacked? "Chutzpah"! :ggreen:
(That, and about 10 hours for a really tiny vortex to develop into the Atlantic's most short lived storm ever).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#34 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:32 pm

Looks to me like a LLC could be at point near 11.8 N and 50.0 W., though I'd venture to say that the broader mid level circulation appears to be tilted a bit to the east and southeast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#35 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:51 pm

Stronger convection firing now closer to the CoC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#36 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:17 pm

Slight but decreasing T numbers for 97L.


20/1745 UTC 11.1N 49.1W T1.0/1.5 97L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#37 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:11 pm

A small cu nim just west of the main, larger flare seems to be moving east into the CoC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#38 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:21 pm

Hot tower close to the CoC at the final frames.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#39 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:31 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#40 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:47 pm

8 PM TWO:

A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located about 650 miles east of
the Windward Islands. The combination of dry mid-level air and
strong upper-level winds are expected to hinder any development of
this disturbance while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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