ATL: ELEVEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1425
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#41 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:18 pm

NHC is quite strict with this system.
1 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#42 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:16 pm

It's amazing how close we came to having two storms classified today. Make 98L a little less frontal and give 97L a completely unambiguous surface spin and they'd have little choice to upgrade 'em despite how strict they are with probs this year. Not that I can blame them too much given the hostile environments both storms are faced with; usually don't seem too keen on upgrading stuff that would only have hours to live at most which I guess is fair enough.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3312
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#43 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:37 am

Heading into some serious shear now. It has to contend with dry air too. That's a lethal mix. This probably won't develop at all. But we'll see.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10067
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#44 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:03 am

Naked LLC this morning, perhaps yesterday afternoon it classified as a weak TD before loosing all the convection during the night.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 956
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Eastern NC

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#45 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:36 am

Like a copperhead snake on your porch...not unhappy to see the "head" chopped off this system. After Florence, still have not been able to get back to Wilmington, I welcome the dry air and shear!
4 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12325
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#46 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:06 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1145 UTC 12.5N 51.9W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114784
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:48 pm

2 PM TWO:

A weak low pressure area located about 500 miles east of the
Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds
and dry air should prevent significant development of this system
while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10067
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#48 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:45 pm

If 97L would have had model support for development or closer to the US it would had been upgraded to a TD shortly.

Image
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1495
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#49 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:57 pm

Convection fires back over the center and it certainly deserves to be upgraded.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6429
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#50 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:23 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Convection fires back over the center and it certainly deserves to be upgraded.

https://imageshack.com/a/img924/2765/BS9cfK.gif


Agree! I think the recent convective burst near the center merits this to be desigmated as a TD.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2018-2019 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
nativefloridian
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 117
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:48 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#51 Postby nativefloridian » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:27 pm

4:20 PM EDT Update from NHC:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
well-defined low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the
Windward Islands has become better organized over the past few
hours, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or
Saturday. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to
prevent additional development of this system by late this weekend
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1425
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#52 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:11 pm

Reminds me of Henri in 2009. A disturbance that started facing strong wind shear but developed a strong convective burst near the center to get upgraded.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5431
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#53 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:25 pm

Nice tight circulation...lets hope the shear persists....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3312
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#54 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:38 pm

MGC wrote:Nice tight circulation...lets hope the shear persists....MGC

Some might beg to differ. I can think of a hilarious meme of a cat secretly wanting a storm to get bigger and bigger. But I won't share it here, because its text contains an f-bomb.
5 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 755
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#55 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:43 pm

Honestly don't know how to keep up with the various discussions... all the sudden we have 97,98,99, and this new one next to 98 are in play....cheese and crackers! :eek: :double:
7 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1425
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#56 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:51 pm

Depression could form tonight.

A well-defined low pressure system located about 400 miles east of
the Windward Islands has produced persistent thunderstorms just east
of its center for the past several hours. If current trends
continue, advisories could be issued on a tropical depression later
tonight or on Saturday. By late this weekend, strong upper-level
winds and dry air are likely to prevent further development of this
system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 755
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#57 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:55 pm

"A well-defined low pressure system located about 400 miles east of
the Windward Islands has produced persistent thunderstorms just east
of its center for the past several hours. If current trends
continue, advisories could be issued on a tropical depression later
tonight or on Saturday. By late this weekend, strong upper-level
winds and dry air are likely to prevent further development of this
system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent."

NHC thinks this wont survive
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12325
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#58 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:31 pm

21/2345 UTC 13.1N 53.3W T1.5/1.5 97L
1 likes   

edu2703
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:15 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#59 Postby edu2703 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:12 pm

1 likes   

Ubuntwo
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 104
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#60 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:16 pm

Image

I'm guessing this may be the reason for the upgrade.
0 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests