ATL: ELEVEN - Models

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ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:27 pm

Models only.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#2 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:25 pm

Model guidance

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Intensity guidance

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#3 Postby GCANE » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:10 am

FV3-GFS spins this up today

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#4 Postby AubreyStorm » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:33 pm

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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:26 pm

For Fego,here is thew SHIP output as of 00z. Shear will be very strong.

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972018 09/22/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 27 27 26 26 29 31
V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 27 27 26 26 29 31
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 26 29 32 28 32 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 275 272 273 271 268 275 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 148 148 153 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 138 139 141 148 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 49 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -15 -6 -5 -17 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 12 22 6 9 17 22 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 816 828 814 784 756 656 547 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 20 21 22 24 25 33 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -29. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 53.2

** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 09/22/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.71 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 09/22/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 09/22/2018 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 28 28 26 25 27 27 26 26 29 31
18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 25 24 26 26 25 25 28 30
12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 23 22 24 24 23 23 26 28
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 17 19 19 18 18 21 23
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#6 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:59 am

Keeps it very weak...if it survives
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