ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is pretty darn close to being designated a TD, if it isn't already. one. I think if we get another convective burst overnight, it will get named a depression tomorrow.

[Hammy]

Given the latest ASCAT pass I'd give this 20% at best to develop at this point. Basically nothing left at the surface.

[Vdogg]

Given the latest ASCAT pass I'd give this 20% at best to develop at this point. Basically nothing left at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/ZFHvV2f.jpg

I wouldn’t write it off too quickly. It looks like it’s trying to spin up again this morning.

[GCANE]

A few strong cells on 37 GHz.
They could be circulating around a center.

[Vdogg]

Circulation is really starting to close in now. I think she's going to make a run for tropical storm today.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 260 miles south of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite and surface data
indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well
organized. However, this system could still become a tropical
depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and
north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system is likely to
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today
and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast
today. For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

There is very little doubt this is closed and could be a TD this morning. very clear circ ( still weak at surface) with convection building right around it now.

does not have much time before shear hits it. but could easily be a TS.

hopefully, they send the plane later.

we also now have it on radar so that will help from this point on.

[ozonepete]

Given the latest ASCAT pass I'd give this 20% at best to develop at this point. Basically nothing left at the surface.

https://i.imgur.com/ZFHvV2f.jpg

Your ASCAT pass totally missed it. The coc is to the west near roughly 32N 76W.

[ozonepete]

Like Aric said, it's likely a TD already and could make TS before it gets to NC. Hot tower popping right over the LLC now.

[emeraldislenc]

How close will it get to the coast of nc?

[tolakram]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I'm not sure I see anything but a vigorous MLC.

[ozonepete]

12Z Model consensus is still for a TS. In the above sat loop you can see it even has banding now. Just needs a convective blowup over the center to kick the winds up.

[tolakram]

How close will it get to the coast of nc?

0Z Euro total precip. Looks like most stays offshore.

[GCANE]

No commentary necessary.
Loop speaks for itself.

[emeraldislenc]

That wouid be great if the rain stays off shore!

[GCANE]

IR satellites are showing 35-knot winds at 700mb

[emeraldislenc]

Raining here now at Emerald Isle hope we do not get much rain.

[Aric Dunn]

Low level cloud deck is starting to thicken all over. probably about to see a large convective burst. Which would help deepen the weak surface circ. development could happen pretty fast today.

[ozonepete]

Raining here now at Emerald Isle hope we do not get much rain.

Yes we all hope so too. We know you sure don't need anymore!

[ozonepete]

Low level cloud deck is starting to thicken all over. probably about to see a large convective burst. Which would help deepen the weak surface circ. development could happen pretty fast today.

There's your burst. Let's see if it can wrap all the way around on the south side.