ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Is over.

AL, 12, 2018092900, , BEST, 0, 150N, 652W, 35, 1007, WV

[Aric Dunn]

What are the chances it reforms?

all the models show some sort of orginization in the western carribb next week. needs to be watched.

He might actually survive all that shear?

no no.. its dead.. lol just the left over trough and energy reorganizing again. lol

would likely be a new name unless the trough is discernable until then. though considering what they did with ex florence/98l. they will likely go with a new name.

[wxman57]

What are the chances it reforms?

all the models show some sort of orginization in the western carribb next week. needs to be watched.

He might actually survive all that shear?

No, Kirk is long, long, long gone by early next week.

[AutoPenalti]

Good riddance, I was finally getting bored of all the Star Trek memes.

[Aric Dunn]

all the models show some sort of orginization in the western carribb next week. needs to be watched.

He might actually survive all that shear?

No, Kirk is long, long, long gone by early next week.

depends on what one decides the remnants are.. models clearly have the trough from kirk meandering and likely merging with more energy early to mid next and then slowly organizing in various ways.

so still needs to be watched especially if the wave axis maintains some definition over the next few days.

[GCANE]

Climo-wise I can think of Wilma spinning up near Jamacia mid October.
Another being Gilbert.
Massive OHC water in the West Carib.
CMC and UKMET are spinning a warm core up in a few days.
Many times a shear-induced MCS develops and transistions to a warm core, especially in diminishing shear with a large infeed of low-level hot, moist air.
Add a little low-level convergence and pow.

[GCANE]

Going thru GFS dynamics.
That is, forecasted PV, Shear, TPW, LL Humidity, etc.
Lots of convection across the Carib.
If he slows down a bit, very Wilma-like set up SW of Jamacia late Monday.
Leslie will be to the NE to vacuum an outflow channel.

[floridasun78]

their were saying tropical wave gone by today still moving west carribbean

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like from the models we are not done with kirk..

models slowly honing in on a western carrib organization at least partially or all of kirk.

starting in about 72 hrs.

[boca]

Looks like ex Kirk tropical wave is flaring up SW of Puerto Rico, I’m watching for regeneration possibly down by Jamaica.

[SoupBone]

[GCANE]

May see shear slowly drop in the next couple days.
Driven in some extent by a 250mb low / 355K PV just north of Cuba.
Convection is starting to fill that in.
Watching area around 15N 80W late Monday.
MSLP forecast to be 1010 mb with a 500 mb trough.

[abajan]

Recon didn't close off an LLC on its first pass through what was the small swirl. Looks like Kirk may be gone.

You're dead, Jim!

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

According to your explanation the other day, wouldn't the following image be more appropriate?



Incidentally, I only just discovered the meaning of your username is Weatherman 57: Meteorologist who was born in 1957. (Yep, I visited your website. )