ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

A lot of the convection moving closer to the CoC.
Vort column losing some of its tilt.

I am still unfamiliar with a lot of meteorologic terms :S sorry lol ..but what does it mean if the Vort column loses its tilt?

Becoming more stacked.
Center-of-circulation at various altitudes coming closer together.

[Nimbus]

Just another convective cycle with inflow and corresponding drop in pressure.
Usually takes about 48 hours without convection to remove the pressure gradient entirely.
It would take a few days for the Bermuda high to build back in and a lighter shear environment in the western Caribbean and none of the models have forecast that possibility except maybe the Canadian.

[Aric Dunn]

Just another convective cycle with inflow and corresponding drop in pressure.
Usually takes about 48 hours without convection to remove the pressure gradient entirely.
It would take a few days for the Bermuda high to build back in and a lighter shear environment in the western Caribbean and none of the models have forecast that possibility except maybe the Canadian.

all the 12z models show some sort of reorganization next week in the western carrib. shear begins to drop off it 72 hours to 90 hours.

remnants need to be watched still

[Abdullah]

The convection seems to be catching up to the Center Of Convection.

Wonder what recon will find...

[Ubuntwo]

The convection seems to be catching up to the Center Of Convection.

Wonder what recon will find...

Probably a depression

[Visioen]

The convection seems to be catching up to the Center Of Convection.

Wonder what recon will find...

Center Of Circulation

[Abdullah]

The convection seems to be catching up to the Center Of Convection.

Wonder what recon will find...

Center Of Circulation

Yeah that's it.

The convection seems to be catching up to the Center Of Convection.

Wonder what recon will find...

Probably a depression

A tropical one?

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot tower is firing on the CoC.
Just at sunset.
Very dense lightning strikes.

[Aric Dunn]

lookslike it is already starting to open up. will need more convection than that.

[GCANE]

Just a note of interest.
5.4 quake just east of Martinique

[GCANE]

[wxman57]

Recon didn't close off an LLC on its first pass through what was the small swirl. Looks like Kirk may be gone.

You're dead, Jim!

[Abdullah]

Recon didn't close off an LLC on its first pass through what was the small swirl. Looks like Kirk may be gone.

You're dead, Jim!

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Again.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon didn't close off an LLC on its first pass through what was the small swirl. Looks like Kirk may be gone.

You're dead, Jim!

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

Again.

lol .. well likely the first time.. finally.

[wxman57]

Looks like recon has given up the search for a circulation.

[Ubuntwo]

Best track has Kirk as dissipated after recon could not find evidence of a closed circulation.

[Abdullah]

What are the chances it reforms?

[Aric Dunn]

What are the chances it reforms?

all the models show some sort of orginization in the western carribb next week. needs to be watched.

[AnnularCane]

What are the chances it reforms?

all the models show some sort of orginization in the western carribb next week. needs to be watched.

He might actually survive all that shear?

[USVIKimmie]

Looks like recon has given up the search for a circulation.

Yep. They just landed back on STX.