ATL: KIRK - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#41 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:25 pm

The Euro ends with the remnant vorticity of Kirk moving slowly just south of Jamaica due to a break in the ridge to the north. Notice all the wind barbs around remannt Kirk in a counterclockwise pattern over a large area of the Western Caribbean. This scenario almost always needs close watching as Western Caribbean is prime time in October:

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#42 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:The Euro ends with the remnant vorticity of Kirk passing just south of Jamiaca moving slowly due to a break in the ridge to the north. Notice all the wind barbs around remannt Kirk in a counterclockwise pattern over a large area of the Western Caribbean. This scenario almost always needs close watching as Western Caribbean is prime time in October:

https://i.postimg.cc/28hKmpG7/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_11.png

Don’t want it, but as you said it needs to be monitored as that’s a favored area this time of year
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#43 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:56 pm

Has anyone seen the latest EPS Ensembles? They used to come out about 45 minutes after the Euro run ends.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#44 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Has anyone seen the latest EPS Ensembles? They used to come out about 45 minutes after the Euro run ends.


You can view them here : https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL12
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#45 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:41 pm

What I don't understand is why the GFS Ensembles constantly want to move Kirk through the NE Caribbean and OTS, meanwhile the Operational GFS is constantly taking this due west towards the Western Caribbean. Any idea why this is?

Btw, the Happy-Hour 18z GEFS is living up to its name fwiw. :wink:
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#46 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What I don't understand is why the GFS Ensembles constantly want to move Kirk through the NE Caribbean and OTS, meanwhile the Operational GFS is constantly taking this due west towards the Western Caribbean. Any idea why this is?

Btw, the Happy-Hour 18z GEFS is living up to its name fwiw. :wink:


I think on the runs that take Kirk out to sea, the future Hurricane Leslie is potitioned a little closer to Kirk, and he moves NE toward her. Leslie is forecast to be a large circulation. The CMC and Navgem models shows something similar.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#47 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:29 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What I don't understand is why the GFS Ensembles constantly want to move Kirk through the NE Caribbean and OTS, meanwhile the Operational GFS is constantly taking this due west towards the Western Caribbean. Any idea why this is?

Btw, the Happy-Hour 18z GEFS is living up to its name fwiw. :wink:

Indeed the Happy Hour GEFS is much more bullish than the 12Z. While most go out to sea, one of them has a hurricane heading WNW into the Bahamas then Florida in the very long-range (not shown) while another heads into the Bahamas before recurving, if Kirk can head north of the Caribbean into the area the GEFS shows Kirk below, conditions appear much more favorable:

Image
The NAVGEM has been insistent Kirk gets much stronger than the GFS and Euro are showing and ends with it turning more west just NE of the Lesser Antilles. While this model is not that good, it does at least show the GEFS possibility this heads more north than the NHC shows:

Image
And don’t forget the UKIE which while much weaker day 7 has this more north than the GFS with the possibility it tracks just north of the hostile Caribbean after day 7 albeit as a weakening low:

Image
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#48 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:What I don't understand is why the GFS Ensembles constantly want to move Kirk through the NE Caribbean and OTS, meanwhile the Operational GFS is constantly taking this due west towards the Western Caribbean. Any idea why this is?

Btw, the Happy-Hour 18z GEFS is living up to its name fwiw. :wink:

Indeed the Happy Hour GEFS is much more bullish than the 12Z. While most go out to sea, one of them has a hurricane heading WNW into the Bahamas then Florida in the very long-range (not shown) while another heads into the Bahamas before recurving, if Kirk can head north of the Caribbean into the area the GEFS shows Kirk below, conditions appear much more favorable:

https://i.postimg.cc/Z51cMfYn/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png
The NAVGEM has been insistent Kirk gets much stronger than the GFS and Euro are showing and ends with it turning more west just NE of the Lesser Antilles. While this model is not that good, it does at least show the GEFS possibility this heads more north than the NHC shows:

https://i.postimg.cc/V6NdBwyC/nvg10.sfc10m.180.go_mex.gif
And don’t forget the UKIE which while much weaker day 7 has this more north than the GFS with the possibility it tracks just north of the hostile Caribbean after day 7 albeit as a weakening low:

https://i.postimg.cc/zDVjSb10/ukm2.2018093012.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Yep, a significant increase in excitement over Kirk with the 18z GEFS Ensembles as seen in the graphic below. One thing I'm now noticing with the models is they're hinting at Kirk potentially strengthening as it approaches the islands from about 50-60W.

Image

12z EPS Ensembles too show this sudden but brief strengthening prior to the Lesser Antilles.

Image
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#49 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:25 pm

Am i seeing this right? Are the models trending more north over the Carr..?
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#50 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:34 pm

meriland29 wrote:Am i seeing this right? Are the models trending more north over the Carr..?

Not the Operational ones and certainly not the Euro and it’s ensembles but it seems every other model most of the GFS ensembles do but it’s too early to tell track with Leslie out there and possibly another system in the same area as that set of systems could take this away from even the Lesser Antilles or Leslie and it’s offspring are more north and this goes through the Caribbean and into the GOM
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#51 Postby blp » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:19 pm

FWIW: CMC now keeps Kirk in the Carribean. No recurve.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#52 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:40 pm

Looks like the 0zGFS shows this redeveloping in the EPAC after 228 hrs

No development but a decent 850 vorticity forms
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#53 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:13 am

Technically, it looks like the 00z ECMWF is showing a hurricane affecting Barbados and Saint Lucia. 104 kph equate to 64 kt 1-minute sustained winds.

Image

Maximum wind gusts:

Image

Source: weather.us
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#54 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:28 am

Models showing this thing running into Central America with some strengthening
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#55 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:40 pm

At 216 on the 18zGFS it seems Kirk’s 850 vorticity is south of Costa Rica in the EPAC
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#56 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:26 pm

This afternoon's GFS 18Z has been the first of recent model runs where it have reversed itself by indicated that Kirk will approach the Islands as a T.S. (at least 7 mb stronger) then it's prior 12Z run) and in better agreement with the EURO. Curiously, the maligned NOGAPS which has been advertising a stronger and more northward track toward P.R. might not be as entirely crazy when one looks at the most recent EURO and GFS runs depicting redevelopment and a slight adjustment northward from how the reduced surface feature might have previously tracked as a weakening wave. This is just a guess, but I'm anticipating that either or both GFS and EURO 0Z runs will depict a greater N.W. track if models continue to suggest an increase in organization and intensity. That would certainly impact NHC consideration of timing any status upgrade, and downstream potential watches/warnings for Puerto Rico. Beyond that, one might have to re-look at a possible NOGAPS solution where Kirk could potentially wind up near the North coast of P.R. and approaching the southern periphery of the large anticyclone that has been sitting east of Florida. There's a lot of shear around, but I cant help but wonder if the substantial anticyclone over Kirk now, might survive and potentially be bridged with the upper high to the North?? F.Y.I., if all that could possibly occur, i'd say that conditions would potentially be favorable for further strengthening and that a westward track could well take the storm nearly due west through the Florida Straits and across the Gulf toward Texas. All highly unlikely but I wouldn't consider the prospect at all ridiculous. Just something to consider if Kirk truly strengthens or even becomes a bit stronger then model projection during the 1-4 days to come.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#57 Postby blp » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:56 am

Big difference over the last 24hrs with the Euro ensembles. Lots of them now keep the circulation going into the South Caribbean and which I think is starting a trend were Kirk may actually survive late in the period.

24hrs ago:
Image

Current:
Image
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#58 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:29 pm

I think if it makes it’s way into the western Caribbean intact things may get just a tad interesting.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#59 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:I think if it makes it’s way into the western Caribbean intact things may get just a tad interesting.


I think those in the Leewards became a tad interested this morning :wink:
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Models

#60 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:46 am

There are so many hurricanes on the 0Z CDN ensemble Oct. 1-10 in the Gulf and off the SE US coast directly related to Kirk that the maps remind me of "The Trouble with Tribbles" Star Trek episode. Call this "The Trouble with Kirks"??
What is with that ensemble's nonstop love affair with Kirk?
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