ATL: KIRK - Models

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1043531629866684416

[blp]

Looks like an El Niño pattern in the Carribean. No way this survives that kind of shear.

[toad strangler]

Looks like an El Niño pattern in the Carribean. No way this survives that kind of shear.

https://image.ibb.co/k0YoCU/gfs_shear_watl_25.png

That's a guillotine if it verifies. But thats the general consensus ATM along with SAL from the N. Not a good combination to say the least.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting to note. both the HWRF and HMON show a series of large out flow boundaries starting in 24hrs from now. Likely a large amount of dry air entrainment. But as we have seen many times that does not always mean weaker.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro .... Kirk Out

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro .... Kirk Out

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc107/softparade1313/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_8.png

At the 10 day though I can’t tell if it regenerates in the western Caribbean or if that’s a new system

[boca]

It looks like the Euro takes whatever is left of Kirk in the Bahamas at 240 hours as a shredded up tropical wave.

[Aric Dunn]

Interestingly the LGEM and SHips which the NHC weighted heavily during florence take this to a hurricane. GFS is the outlier ( again lol )

[AutoPenalti]

I know shear forecasts are hard to predict 3-4 days out but Kirk is going to have a hell of a journey...

[chaser1]

Looks like an El Niño pattern in the Carribean. No way this survives that kind of shear.

https://image.ibb.co/k0YoCU/gfs_shear_watl_25.png

Does "look" like a El Nino pattern of shear in the Caribbean but looking a bit further west and north, doesn't our present pattern appear more driven by a meridianal flow then the largely zonal (or split jet zonal) flow more common in an El Nino year? Only asking because within a well entrenched El Nino pattern, what you see is what you get for the most part. On the other hand, I would tend to look at present 200 mb - 500 mb wind shear as less a precursor of the future and more a reflection of present conditions and the strong mid to upper high over Texas. Furthermore, if one looks at the GFS 240 hr. Wind Shear Anomalies, it's plainly obvious that a significant drop off in shear occurs around 60W. With time, this area expands and moves west into the Central and Western Caribbean; Very possibly as a result of a significant anticyclone that could well be associated with a fairly well defined tropical system. I believe that greater research could be done toward better understanding those circumstances where some hurricanes themselves have as great (or even greater) influence on those dynamic conditions currently in place (but that discussion could be left for another newly created thread).

[gatorcane]

The 18Z HWRF is more bullish:

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF has a hurricane at 114 hrs

[LarryWx]

HWRF has a hurricane at 114 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2018092218/hwrf_mslp_wind_12L_39.png

Aric and gator,
I’m not saying Kirk couldn’t become a H E of the Lesser Antilles, but doesn’t the HWRF have an overstrengthening bias?

[Hurricaneman]

HWRF has a hurricane at 114 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2018092218/hwrf_mslp_wind_12L_39.png

And after that weakens Kirk substantially

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Always thought hwrf was an intensity model

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Sun GEFS is far more active with Kirk in the SW Atlantic with both stronger members as well as a good bit larger number of relatively strong members going W of 60W than was any prior GEFS run fwiw. Whereas prior runs had at most very few sub 1003 mb members among the 21, this run has about half that get near or lower than 990 mb (potential H strength). About half the members recurve E of 60W but about half of the ones that don’t get recurve then subsequently get caught underneath a big NE US surface high and get close to or hit the SE US in early Oct including 2 Hs and a weaker member either hitting or getting close to FL. One goes into the GOM as a H.

[Emmett_Brown]

Conditions for Kirk are marginal at best in the near term... however, there is a subtle trend on the GFS Op run to strengthen him. For example, on the 12Z GFS, Kirk has a 998 mb pressure by 30 hours. The previous run he was 1002 mb for the same point in time. Kirk still dissipates on the 12Z in the E Caribbean, however. But, the trend is interesting.

[LarryWx]

Unlike the 0Z GEFS, the 12Z GEFS is very quiet.


OTOH, the 12Z Euro is stronger and several hundred miles NE of its 0Z Euro location in the N Caribbean despite shear still being strong nearby. I think it is because it came into the Caribbean stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro shows what seems to be Kirk in the Western Caribbean at the end of its run, could the GOM have to watch Kirk beyond day 10

[abajan]

12Z Euro takes a stronger system into the Windward Islands than the 00Z.