MED: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea

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MED: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea

#1 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:43 am

It seems that a tropical cyclone (currently possibly a depression with max winds around 30 kt) formed over the Tyrrhenian Sea. It has a well-defined LLC (although it is now exposed, recently convection started to develop closer to that) and an even more vigorous upper level outflow. The latest ASCAT pass missed the cyclone, but yesterday captured the forming (still elongated) low with 25 kt winds. In the morning hours today, a ship travel near the center and reported a minimal 1007.6 hPa pressure at 05 UTC, while the coastal stations in East-Sardninia have been reporting pressures around 1011-1012 hPa since early morning. Based on the satellite animation, a mid level vortex also existing northeast of the LLC.
One interesting note to the cyclone: it didn't develop from a cut-off extratropical low as many medicane did in the past, a low pressure area formed over the water on Wednesday, and it developed gradually with sustained convection, like the real tropical cyclones.

Current animation:

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Satellite animation from morning:

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The pressure measurements from the ship:

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Yesterday's ASCAT pass:

Image
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#2 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:21 pm

It has nice convection now, and it seems that the LLC relocated under it (or at least it is very close to the southern/southwestern edge of the cluster).

Image
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#3 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:07 pm

SSTs are around 26c, coupled with cooler air aloft than the tropics is more than enough for deep convection.

Sure is presenting like a TC on that IR above, amazing.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#4 Postby Abdullah » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:46 pm

Tropical Cyclones can form almost anywhere now.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:20 pm

Yep, I would consider that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#6 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:54 pm

The last ASCAT-B pass (at 20:39 UTC) confirmed that this is a tropical cyclone, but the LLC is partially exposed on the south side of the convection. Although it measured max winds around 30 kt, the ASCAT-A pass an hour earlier showed only 25 kt winds, so the cyclone is strengthening, and now very likely a weak TS.

Image

Image
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#7 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:45 am

The cyclone very likely weakened back to tropical depression in the morning hours as it became less organized, but it's still producing sustained deep convection, mainly over NE Tunisia.
Edit: I've just noticed that the ASCAT-A pass at 09:37 UTC still showed more 30 kt vectors and also a 40 kt vectors over the strong convection, so maybe it's still a weak TS.

Image

Image
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#8 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:33 pm

I think this is going to be part of a growing trend.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#9 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:35 pm

I wish the nhc would include the Mediterranean.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#10 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:27 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I wish the nhc would include the Mediterranean.

I think that would be part of Europe's area of responsibility rather than the NHC.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#11 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:38 am

The cyclone caused huge amount of rain (150-200 mm) and flash floods on the NE edge of Tunisia yesterday.
Some video from the SWE (Severe Weather Europe) facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/338603616684849/
https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/2037956829605187/
https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/videos/2285495731682575/
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#12 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:27 am

Thanks to my friend Vince_and_Grace_fans who has not escaped these system. I followed this system very well. This was a real Tropical Storm. Central Mediterranean temperatures were rather high, 26-27 ° C. The system was developed on the 20th day on the Tyrrhenian Sea as a tropical disturbance. On day 21 was a subtropical depression. On the evening of the 21st show a transition in a Tropical depression. In some moments, the LLC is partially exposed on the south side of the convection. However this has been observed many times in tropical depressions/storms. On the early hours of 22 the system has all the characteristics of a Tropical storm. It is a tropical storm. Symmetric warm core, Deep central convection, closed circulation, outflow bands are present. Unfortunately Ascat skips two passes in this phase at the probable peak intensity (estimate 40kt). However, during the landfall over the Tunisa Ascat shows winds of 35kt, consistent with a minimal tropical storm. During these system formation, almost stationary, he downloaded many hundreds of mm of rain offshore of the sea, and it was lucky, otherwise we could have severe floods on Lazio, Sardinia and Sicily. However, minimal flooding took place in Sicily and Sardinia. The landfall on Tunisia has caused serious and extensive floods, with a maximum of 225mm of rain Beni Khalled in a few hours and winds up to 62 km/h. The are many damages, destroyed strees and 5 victims, but they could be more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJGlLh4zMBE

The tropical systems in the Mediterranean, although ascertained by all of us, continue to be ignored by the main sources of tropical cyclones tracking. SAB SSD-Noaa inserted the Mediterranean between its basins a few years ago, but seems to have stopped observing this basin. Estofex (ESTOFEX: European Storm Forecast Experiment) warned about possible heavy rains on the central Mediterranean but underestimated the potential of this system, by simply describing it as a "warm core depression". Estofex staff are unprepared on tropical systems and this type of dynamics . The Mediterranean is not part of the NHC sector, but.. why this? What changes to them also include the Mediterranean? They are only 1-2 systems per year. On the other hand, geographically, the Mediterraeno is actually a branch of the north-eastern Atlantic. We should send numerous emails to attract attention, this situation has been going on for decades and seems to have no reason, a way out seemed to be SAB SSD-Noaa but this too was a disappointment. Usually in Italian media these systems have a little 'attention only when the meteo-models provide for these rather intense, but we forget that a simple tropical depression, although not strong in winds, can' cause severe floods, damage extend, fatalities.

21 Sept. 18:00 local:
Image

21 Sept. 20:00 local:
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21 Sept. 23:00 local:
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22 Sept. 17:00-18:00 local (landfall over Tunis):
Image
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Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea (MED)

#13 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:39 pm

Let's just say if that was in the GoM that's 100% going to get upgraded into a TC of some type.

I think this deserves attention from Mets for sure, as it's probably the most clear cut tropical cyclone your going to see. It could make a good paper I'm sure.

Unfortunately it's probably going to need a Caterina type system, something which is an undeniable TC before the area gets attention, and as SSTs warm you have to think more of these types of complexes will get going.
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Re: MED: Tropical Cyclone over the Tyrrhenian Sea

#14 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:21 am

The track map and intensity estimate of this cyclone (I named it Otilie):

Image

Image
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