WPAC: 29W - Tropical Depression

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WPAC: 29W - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:51 am

93W INVEST 180921 1200 19.4N 176.2E WPAC 15 1010

Near the dateline
Last edited by mrbagyo on Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:52 am

Olivia's remnants?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:15 pm

EURO and GFS develops this somewhat.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:00 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.0N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232306Z 89GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION WITH TURNINGIN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MOST RECENT 231018Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15- TO 20-KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT WITH TROUGHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SHEAR (15-
25KTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE VICINITY ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29-31 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MOVING NORTH WITH SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 36-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:54 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 163.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY
277 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240205Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
36-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:09 am

Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 161.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 157.5E, APPROXIMATELY
526 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 250248Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. A 241105Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON 93W'S POLEWARD TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON TIME FRAMES AND
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:06 am

JTWC issued TCFA 1430Z
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:20 am

WTPN21 PGTW 251430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.6N 154.7E TO 30.6N 149.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250912Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.0N 154.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 157.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY
705 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 251044Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A POLEWARD
TRAJECTORY. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE A SHORT LIVED SYSTEM,
TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261430Z.//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:02 pm

18Z
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 27N 153E NW 10 KT.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:06 pm

now 29W?
93W INVEST 180926 0000 27.4N 151.6E WPAC 25 1005
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:33 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.0N 154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 151.6E, APPROXIMATELY
656 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 252349Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A RECENT 252312Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE A SHORT LIVED SYSTEM, TRANSITIONING TO
EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: 29W - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:29 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
579 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260000Z HIMAWARI
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 252350Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A
LARGE SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 29W IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A 252200Z AMSU
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS TD 29W IS A WEAK WARM CORE
SYSTEM. TD 29W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AS
TD 29W TRACKS NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STR IT WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 29W WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES BY TAU
36 WHILE REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 29W - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:28 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 85NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN EIR IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 261539Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AND A CENTRAL LOW
REFLECTIVITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER (261105Z METOP-A) PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 30
KNOT WINDS AND HEDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 29W HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
261000Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS TD 29W IS A VERY
WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM. TD 29W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS
THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TD 29W WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT,
AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 29W - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:29 am

Image


WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 33.0N 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 36.4N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 40.0N 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 152.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 536
NM NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 100NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY SHOWING THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SHEARED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25KTS) FROM
PGTW. TD 29W IS IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED INSIDE AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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