ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:24 pm

8 PM TWO:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is currently centered about 950 miles
southwest of the Azores Islands, and it is forecast to meander over
the central Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or
Friday, Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics while the cyclone moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#42 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:31 pm

Not that anyone cares but GFS has Leslie still meandering around in the central Atlantic at 384hr as a tropical/subtropical system. 12z EC keeps Leslie alive by end of the run as well.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#43 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:36 pm

I dunno I'm pretty enthralled by Leslie, a fascinating storm; I honestly hope it hangs around that long :D
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#44 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:36 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Not that anyone cares but GFS has Leslie still meandering around in the central Atlantic at 384hr as a tropical/subtropical system. 12z EC keeps Leslie alive by end of the run as well.

Just the fact we could be dealing with this for 16+ days is unbelievable but not unprecedented as we had such storms as Ginger 1971 and Kyle 2002
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#45 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:39 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower
activity and gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while
the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:43 pm

2 PM TWO:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower
activity and gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while
the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:46 pm

8 PM TWO:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores, has
intensified into a potent non-tropical low with hurricane-force
winds. The associated shower activity is becoming more organized,
and the low is showing signs of taking on more subtropical
characteristics. Leslie is expected to again become a subtropical
storm, or possibly a tropical storm, on Thursday or Friday while it
moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph over the north-central
Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#48 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:29 pm

65 knots on Best Track. We have a SubSubSubHurricane.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#49 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:38 pm

If this still has hurricane-force winds when it transitions will they call it a subtropical hurricane? :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#50 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:39 pm

Abdullah wrote:65 knots on Best Track. We have a SubSubSubHurricane.


If this can manage to acquire enough tropical characteristics and not weaken we might see a direct upgrade to hurricane. I think the last time that happened was 2001.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#51 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:29 am

Yeah pretty sure Noel '01 was the last time... I can't immediately think of any other relatively recent times that's happened so not a common thing at all.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#52 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:35 am

After the latest Euro run, I can't wait to see the forecast track whenever advisories are initiated :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:55 am

8 AM TWO:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles west of the Azores, remains a powerful
non-tropical low with hurricane-force winds. The associated shower
activity is gradually becoming more organized, and Leslie is
expected to again become a subtropical storm, or possibly a tropical
storm, later today or Friday while it moves west-southwestward at
about 10 mph over the north-central Atlantic. For more information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#54 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:25 am

90/90... aggressive

Also does anyone know where I can find satellite loops for Leslie's entire life? That would be cool to see.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#55 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:31 am

Some impressive winds over a large area! Good thing this isn't anywhere near land.
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... Bas110.png
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#56 Postby Abdullah » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:59 am

We're going to have a SubHurricane soon. I've never seen a SubHurricane. Only SubTropical Storms...

Why?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#57 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:40 pm

2 PM TWO:

1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles west of the Azores, remains a powerful
non-tropical low with storm-force winds. The associated shower
activity is gradually becoming better organized, and Leslie is
expected to again become a subtropical storm, or possibly a tropical
storm, tonight or Friday while it moves west-southwestward at about
10 mph over the north-central Atlantic. For more information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#58 Postby shiny-pebble » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:26 pm

This is kind of a dumb question but what would the NHC do if Leslie became a subtropical cyclone with hurricane force winds?

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#59 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:32 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:This is kind of a dumb question but what would the NHC do if Leslie became a subtropical cyclone with hurricane force winds?

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Since subtropical cyclones with depression winds are called subtropical depressions, and those with ts winds are called subtropical storms, then I guess you extrapolate that to the title subtropical hurricane?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#60 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:34 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:This is kind of a dumb question but what would the NHC do if Leslie became a subtropical cyclone with hurricane force winds?

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Hurricane! Noal 2001 did this.
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