ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1064
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#181 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:28 pm

0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#182 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:30 pm

I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?
1 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1313
Age: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#183 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:18 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?


warnings are up to Portugal's weather service.

I think there was a similar discussion last year with Ophelia, there the Met Office in Ireland took care of it, even though it wasn't tropical when it hit Ireland.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#184 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:43 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?


warnings are up to Portugal's weather service.

I think there was a similar discussion last year with Ophelia, there the Met Office in Ireland took care of it, even though it wasn't tropical when it hit Ireland.


Per the latest discussion, NHC discussed with Spain and Portugal today about procedures. Decision was made to use local products and not NHC tropical products, although it was considered. Although by now we would be at the point where a Hurricane Warning would be needed (i.e. less than 36 hours from impact).
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

edu2703
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 345
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:15 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#185 Postby edu2703 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:45 pm

5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 33.9°N 24.1°W
Moving: ENE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Image

INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
1 likes   

bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1667
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#186 Postby bob rulz » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:59 pm

Wow, that was a quick change in track forecast. Does the sparseness of data in that region contribute to more uncertainty in the track?
1 likes   

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#187 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:51 pm

Would Portugal get any storm surge, or is the coastline too steep?
0 likes   

Chris_in_Tampa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4963
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
Contact:

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#188 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:49 pm

0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#189 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:42 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Would Portugal get any storm surge, or is the coastline too steep?


Lisbon Harbor, at the mouth of the River Tagus, may be a trouble spot if it is moving east/northeast at the time. It's a triangular shaped harbor on a river delta.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#190 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

If tropical warnings were issued, here is how I would apply them using NHC standards:

Hurricane Watch

* Carvoeira to Comporta, including the Tagus Delta

Tropical Storm Warning

* Northern border of Portugal-Spain to Huelva (entire Portuguese coast, small part of Spanish coast)

Looking at the probabilities on the NHC site, the coastal probability for hurricane conditions peaks at about 20% near Lisbon. That is too low to warrant a Hurricane Warning, but is worth mentioning.
1 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1981
Age: 47
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#191 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:00 am

So I take it she got picked up by whatever it was that they weren't sure of if she was or wasn't gonna get picked up by. If she wouldn't of been picked up she would of turned South and then West.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#192 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:50 am

Leslie was the new Nadine 2012. :lol:
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

shiny-pebble
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#193 Postby shiny-pebble » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:49 am

Goodbye Leslie.... The end is near.... I loved you so much Leslie.....

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
-Jack 8-)

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1295
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#194 Postby plasticup » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:19 am

bob rulz wrote:Wow, that was a quick change in track forecast. Does the sparseness of data in that region contribute to more uncertainty in the track?

Absolutely
1 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#195 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:35 am

The header of the 11 AM advisory.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE...
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#196 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:46 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#197 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:50 am

Leslie is still a hurricane at 12.6°W. Ophelia last year only reached 14.3°W as a hurricane, and Vince 05 reached 18.9°W as a hurricane but moved ashore as a tropical depression. Faith 66 officially reached to 6° W as a hurricane, but that’s pending reanalysis.
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#198 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:52 am

If this hits Lisbon as a hurricane, that is a major city hit...and could be a severe impact.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1915
Age: 21
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#199 Postby Kazmit » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:03 am

Has a fully tropical hurricane ever made landfall in Portugal?
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#200 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:05 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests