ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Now forecast to be a Hurricane in 96 hours.

96H 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

[floridasun78]

only Bermuda need watch this may get close too them

[plasticup]

only Bermuda need watch this may get close too them

The models don't show it getting too close. Looks like a strong poleward movement after day 5. The swells are certainly here though.

[NDG]

Like I said yesterday Leslie should put up some nice ACE with now the NHC forecasting it to become a Cat 1 but I wouldn't doubt if it ends up becoming a major before is all done in the 5-7 day range.

[Buck]

Would love to see Leslie wind up as a major fish 'cane.

[Ntxw]

The latest Leslie forecast from the NHC still yields 3-4 units through 5 days.

In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.

[cycloneye]

The latest Leslie forecast from the NHC still yields 3-4 units through 5 days.

In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.

Maybe that happens but they are talking about this word. (Upwelling)

The global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the
upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should
complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could
result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next
week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear
environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that
time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further
strengthening.

[EquusStorm]

Aaaand is tropical now. A little ahead of forecast.

[HurricaneRyan]

Leslie is acting similar to her 2012 counterpart

[NDG]

Amazing how the swells from a storm thousand of miles away are reaching FL.

https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1 ... 78275?s=21

[supercane4867]

Apparently both EC and GFS have Leslie misses the next trough and keep her alive in the foreseeable future

[Ntxw]

It will battle shear for about another day or so then conditions will improve for some strengthening to Hurricane. Should peak day 3-7 before less then stellar conditions.

[LarryWx]

How fast any residual trailing Leslie related 500 mb weakness near or south of Bermuda fills in and allows for rebuilding ridging there, which will largely be dependent on track and speed of her, will likely have a big say as to whether or not any Caribbean energy, which likely would be at least partially related to Kirk remnants, will move up E of FL or W of FL. The influence of TCs on each other is fascinating to follow!

[cycloneye]

The global models show the
upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a
day, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to
gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous
track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling. These
conditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some
weakening.

[Hammy]

That blob of convection has rotated almost all the way around the circulation somehow without any wrapping or expanding.

[NDG]

Looking much better this morning, probably a 55-60 knot range, IMO.

[NDG]

Looking better by the minute.

[AnnularCane]

She's beautiful.

I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?

[NDG]

She's beautiful.

I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?

Whatever it is mostly a large COC with multiple vorticities in it, but it has been contracting.

[gfsperpendicular]

perhaps it's some sort of banding eye?

Leslie is fun to look at.