ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#181 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:28 pm

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#182 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:30 pm

I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#183 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:18 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?


warnings are up to Portugal's weather service.

I think there was a similar discussion last year with Ophelia, there the Met Office in Ireland took care of it, even though it wasn't tropical when it hit Ireland.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#184 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:43 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?


warnings are up to Portugal's weather service.

I think there was a similar discussion last year with Ophelia, there the Met Office in Ireland took care of it, even though it wasn't tropical when it hit Ireland.


Per the latest discussion, NHC discussed with Spain and Portugal today about procedures. Decision was made to use local products and not NHC tropical products, although it was considered. Although by now we would be at the point where a Hurricane Warning would be needed (i.e. less than 36 hours from impact).
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#185 Postby edu2703 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:45 pm

5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 33.9°N 24.1°W
Moving: ENE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Image

INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#186 Postby bob rulz » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:59 pm

Wow, that was a quick change in track forecast. Does the sparseness of data in that region contribute to more uncertainty in the track?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#187 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:51 pm

Would Portugal get any storm surge, or is the coastline too steep?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#188 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:49 pm

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#189 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:42 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Would Portugal get any storm surge, or is the coastline too steep?


Lisbon Harbor, at the mouth of the River Tagus, may be a trouble spot if it is moving east/northeast at the time. It's a triangular shaped harbor on a river delta.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#190 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

If tropical warnings were issued, here is how I would apply them using NHC standards:

Hurricane Watch

* Carvoeira to Comporta, including the Tagus Delta

Tropical Storm Warning

* Northern border of Portugal-Spain to Huelva (entire Portuguese coast, small part of Spanish coast)

Looking at the probabilities on the NHC site, the coastal probability for hurricane conditions peaks at about 20% near Lisbon. That is too low to warrant a Hurricane Warning, but is worth mentioning.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#191 Postby Blinhart » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:00 am

So I take it she got picked up by whatever it was that they weren't sure of if she was or wasn't gonna get picked up by. If she wouldn't of been picked up she would of turned South and then West.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#192 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:50 am

Leslie was the new Nadine 2012. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#193 Postby shiny-pebble » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:49 am

Goodbye Leslie.... The end is near.... I loved you so much Leslie.....

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#194 Postby plasticup » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:19 am

bob rulz wrote:Wow, that was a quick change in track forecast. Does the sparseness of data in that region contribute to more uncertainty in the track?

Absolutely
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#195 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:35 am

The header of the 11 AM advisory.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#196 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:46 am

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#197 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:50 am

Leslie is still a hurricane at 12.6°W. Ophelia last year only reached 14.3°W as a hurricane, and Vince 05 reached 18.9°W as a hurricane but moved ashore as a tropical depression. Faith 66 officially reached to 6° W as a hurricane, but that’s pending reanalysis.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#198 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:52 am

If this hits Lisbon as a hurricane, that is a major city hit...and could be a severe impact.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#199 Postby Kazmit » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:03 am

Has a fully tropical hurricane ever made landfall in Portugal?
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Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#200 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:05 am

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