ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Ubuntwo
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#61 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:43 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
shiny-pebble wrote:This is kind of a dumb question but what would the NHC do if Leslie became a subtropical cyclone with hurricane force winds?

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk



Hurricane! Noal 2001 did this.


That's a different case, it purportedly transitioned to tropical as it reached hurricane intensity.
As per NHC:
The subtropical cyclone drifted northward initially, its speed increasing to about
10 kt by late on 4 November. Convection, which had been limited to the northern semicircle,
became more symmetric as it formed a ring around the center with a radius of about 60 n mi. The
system developed a weak mid-level warm core early on 5 November, strengthened and became a
hurricane with 65 kt winds at 1200 UTC that day, about 535 n mi south-southeast of Cape Race
0 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116153
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#62 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:37 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located over the central Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles west of the Azores, remains a powerful
non-tropical low with storm-force winds. The associated shower
activity has gradually become better organized around the low's
center since yesterday, and Leslie is expected to again become a
subtropical storm, or possibly a tropical storm, on Friday while it
moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph over the north-central
Atlantic. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1467
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#63 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:21 pm

If a storm has hurricane winds while it's subtropical, I believe they still call it a Subtropical Storm.
1 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#64 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:05 am

Has had far more convection in the last 24 hours than when it was classified (still not fully convinced it was subtropical the whole time it was classified the first time) and yet no upgrade yet. Seems par for the course this year. I assume it'll be reclassified this evening, as convection remains as organized as it was, or better than, the first time.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10377
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#65 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:09 pm

It is starting to acquire if not already subtropical characteristics, IMO.
Is over SSTs in the mid to upper 70s which is warm enough and as it moves towards warmer waters over the next few days it should acquire more tropical characteristics and should become a full tropical hurricane. It should add some nice ACE numbers to the Atlantic Basin because is going to meander around for so long.

Image
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#66 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:26 pm

I'd love this to be a good ACE builder, not hurting anyone except for the swells it produces and sitting and spinning gorgeously. Slight trend upward with intensity in the ensembles; this would be interesting to watch.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#67 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:59 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is located over the central Atlantic
Ocean about 1000 miles west of the Azores. The associated shower
activity is becoming better organized, and recent satellite wind
data indicates that the circulation has become more characteristic
of a subtropical cyclone. If current trends continue, advisories
will be re-initiated later today or tonight. Regardless of whether
the system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone, Leslie should
continue to produce strong winds and high seas over a large portion
of the central Atlantic for the next several days. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
0 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116153
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:00 pm

100%/100%

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is located over the central Atlantic
Ocean about 1000 miles west of the Azores. The associated shower
activity is becoming better organized, and recent satellite wind
data indicates that the circulation has become more characteristic
of a subtropical cyclone. If current trends continue, advisories
will be re-initiated later today or tonight. Regardless of whether
the system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone, Leslie should
continue to produce strong winds and high seas over a large portion
of the central Atlantic for the next several days. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116153
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion: 2 PM TWO= 100%/100%

#69 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:43 pm

SubTropical Storm at 5 PM:

AL, 13, 2018092818, , BEST, 0, 363N, 474W, 45, 986, SS
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 402
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion: 2 PM TWO= 100%/100%

#70 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:SubTropical Storm at 5 PM:

AL, 13, 2018092818, , BEST, 0, 363N, 474W, 45, 986, SS


Where can I find the best track data?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116153
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion: 2 PM TWO= 100%/100%

#71 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:51 pm

bg1 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:SubTropical Storm at 5 PM:

AL, 13, 2018092818, , BEST, 0, 363N, 474W, 45, 986, SS


Where can I find the best track data?


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116153
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:52 pm

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REGAINS SUBTROPICAL STORM STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 48.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1000
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#73 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:53 pm

That's a big wind field. :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 972
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:57 pm

It sure is! This thing must be a wave generating machine!
0 likes   

Ubuntwo
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#75 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:01 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:It sure is! This thing must be a wave generating machine!

You'd be right about that.

Image
1 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1000
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#76 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:29 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:It sure is! This thing must be a wave generating machine!

You'd be right about that.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/495339248833265664/wvheight.JPG

Time to dust off the surfboard again.
0 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1467
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:54 pm

Yeah that is big! That means some of the waves in Nova Scotia and Hispaniola are from Leslie!
1 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 628
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#78 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:11 pm

Hope this can become a fish hurricane then. I want to hit 100 ACE
0 likes   
I'm wide awake

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17130
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#79 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:15 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Hope this can become a fish hurricane then. I want to hit 100 ACE


The current NHC forecast through 5 days yields 3-4 units of ACE. So far Leslie has generated about ~1 unit.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
WAcyclone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 250
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:21 pm

CSU predicts Leslie to generate between 10 and 15 ACE: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/09/2018-0927.pdf
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests