WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Kong-rey has to maintain the very cold cloud tops (-80C) and +20C eye or intensify more till 18z to be officially upgraded

[Hayabusa]

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 October 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 1 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°50' (16.8°)
E134°25' (134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

CI now officially 7.0

2018OCT01 121000 7.0 917.7 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.7 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.47 -80.25 EYE 16 IR 73.6 16.82 -134.32 ARCHER HIM-8 21.0

[NotoSans]

I seldom say agencies estimates are too low but even taking into account Dvorak constraints it should be a solid T7.0 now. Yet I think microwave estimates would be lower than ADT ones this time; perhaps we’ll need to wait till the next AMSU pass.

[Highteeld]

Man, what the hell happened overnight. I wake up to a raw T 7.8. wtf

[NotoSans]

2018 WP 30 274.486 2018OCT01 114000 16.82 -134.41 2 924 139
SATCON says 139 knots.

[edu2703]

[supercane4867]

Full in beast mode






CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 917.7mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +20.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[SconnieCane]

Yeesh, I didn't think the basin had it in it anymore after all the majors that have to have churned up the water something fierce. Never count out the WPAC's ability to produce a CAT 5 STY.

[mrbagyo]

2018 WP 30 274.486 2018OCT01 114000 16.82 -134.41 2 924 139
SATCON says 139 knots.

Dragged down by not updated members.

[Highteeld]

I wonder if the shear is actually much lower than what is being shown by CIMSS. CIMSS estimates are low, but the rate of change for Typhoon King Kong are nuts -- Patricia-Esque. The tiny eye helps too though

[Highteeld]

IN theory, this storm could be 165 knots with recon. Insane

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp increase but with a slight reduction in cloud temp, final and adj T went down
2018OCT01 124000 7.0 917.7 140.0 6.9 6.9 7.7 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 21.05 -79.99 EYE 15 IR 73.6 16.86 -134.26 ARCHER HIM-8 21.1

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 October 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 1 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°50' (16.8°)
E134°25' (134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N18°55' (18.9°)
E131°20' (131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N21°05' (21.1°)
E128°50' (128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35' (23.6°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

[NotoSans]

Eye temp increase but with a slight reduction in cloud temp, final and adj T went down
2018OCT01 124000 7.0 917.7 140.0 6.9 6.9 7.7 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 21.05 -79.99 EYE 15 IR 73.6 16.86 -134.26 ARCHER HIM-8 21.1

That's why I think the raw-Ts estimated earlier are likely too high - the ADT algorithm seems to favour systems with more intense convection, even if the eye temperature is not that high. One example would be Super Typhoon Meranti and Haima - the ADT suggests that the latter is stronger (higher raw-Ts), but all other intensity estimation techniques and even subjective Dvorak estimates are in favour of the former. As the eye continues to clear out, surrounding convection is likely to slightly weaken, resulting in lower raw-Ts, even though the system continues to intensify.

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp increase but with a slight reduction in cloud temp, final and adj T went down
2018OCT01 124000 7.0 917.7 140.0 6.9 6.9 7.7 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 21.05 -79.99 EYE 15 IR 73.6 16.86 -134.26 ARCHER HIM-8 21.1

That's why I think the raw-Ts estimated earlier are likely too high - the ADT algorithm seems to favour systems with more intense convection, even if the eye temperature is not that high. One example would be Super Typhoon Meranti and Haima - the ADT suggests that the latter is stronger (higher raw-Ts), but all other intensity estimation techniques and even subjective Dvorak estimates are in favour of the former. As the eye continues to clear out, surrounding convection is likely to slightly weaken, resulting in lower raw-Ts, even though the system continues to intensify.

I noticed that too, the ADT right now has high T raw estimates for systems with very cold cloud tops, but during Haiyan I think ADT was even more conservative, Haiyan had -85C cloud tops and +20C eye yet the T raw peak was just 7.6.

[NotoSans]

2018 WP 30 274.486 2018OCT01 114000 16.82 -134.41 2 924 139
SATCON says 139 knots.

Dragged down by not updated members.

The latest AMSU estimate is also in the low-end category-5 range.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 30W
Monday 01oct18 Time: 1158 UTC
Latitude: 16.79 Longitude: 134.40
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 6 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 922 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 139 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -14.6 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.18
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.69
RMW: 14 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1006
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 01 Time (UTC): 1200

[dexterlabio]

JTWC's latest prognosis having no mention of the possibility of Kong-rey being underestimated at 125kts makes me want to throw a tantrum lol.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN12 PGTW 011500

A. TYPHOON 30W (KONG REY)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 16.95N

D. 134.05E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS OF LIMIT TO CHANGE
OF 1.0 OVER 6 HRS. EYE DIAMETER 15NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

[wxman57]

JMA still says 95 kts (10-min).