WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Woah only 135 knots? This is a full fledge high end Cat 5.

[euro6208]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 30W
Monday 01oct18 Time: 1036 UTC
Latitude: 16.63 Longitude: 134.59
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 6 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 917 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 146 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -16.0 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.22
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.39
RMW: 14 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1006
Satellite: NOAA-18
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 01 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10011036
SATCON: MSLP = 920 hPa MSW = 144 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 139.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 131 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 220 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.9 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 918 hPa 140 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT011430
CIMSS AMSU: 917 hPa 146 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10011036
ATMS: 960.0 hPa 90.2 knots Date: 09301640
SSMIS: 924.0 hPa 137.0 knots Date: 10010919
CIRA ATMS: 974 hPa 76 knots Date: 09291611

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM ROUND EYE IN THE EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (135 KTS)
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES, AND A 011036Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 144
KTS. LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAVE ALLOWED
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 011201Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN 30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO ITS NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STY 30W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM TO 140 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 24, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND
NO LONGER BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW, AND THUS
STY 30W WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH 95 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 48,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR
AXIS, TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120, ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODELS VARY GREATLY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE RECURVE. NAVGEM IS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND BRUSHES THE
COAST OF CHINA AT TAU 120 BEFORE RECURVING. ECMWF AND JGSM ARE ALSO
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING LONGER TO COMPLETE THE
RECURVE. TWRF, HWRF, GALWEM, COAMPS-GFS, AND GFS ARE TO THE EAST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREDICT A TIGHTER RECURVE. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AROUND TAU 96, STY 30W WILL
MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS BELOW 26C, WHILE A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
OVER MANCHURIA, ALLOWING STY 30W TO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND AGAIN DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL SLOW THE WEAKENING TREND DESPITE THE COOLER
SSTS AND HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PROVIDING AN
OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT TAU 120, AS STY 30W
ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, IT
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD OF 695 NM BY TAU 120, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1046826859302965248




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1046821029727916033

[euro6208]

Finally catching up.

TPPN12 PGTW 012141

A. SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 17.43N

D. 133.13E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET IS 6.5. PT IS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ZOUFALY

[1900hurricane]

Big burst of convection on the eastern periphery of the CDO. Probably a sign that eyewall replacement is about to begin.

[euro6208]

I'd reckon if there was recon, we would have found an historic storm. Presentation is just unbelievable. +22.6C eye, near -80C tops. It's just perfect.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

SATCON up to 158 knots.

[Hayabusa]

TPPN12 PGTW 020028

A. SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY)

B. 02/0000Z

C. 17.65N

D. 132.66E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET IS 6.5. DT IS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1858Z 17.35N 133.52E SSMS
01/1905Z 17.45N 133.43E MMHS
01/2124Z 17.40N 133.08E SSMS
01/2153Z 17.38N 132.95E SSMS
01/2226Z 17.52N 132.98E GPMI


ZOUFALY

[Highteeld]

Here are my thoughts on the strongest storms of the year (any basin) so far

1. King-Kong -- 165 knots
2. Mangkhut -- 160 knots
3. Jebi -- 155 knots
4. Kalaka -- 155 knots
5. Maria -- 150 knots
6. Lane -- 150 knots
7. Trami -- 145 knots
8. Marcus -- 140 knots
9. Hector -- 140 knots

[Hayabusa]

Ah okay...
01C WALAKA 181002 0000 12.9N 169.6W CPAC 140 920
30W KONG-REY 181002 0000 17.6N 132.7E WPAC 140 918

[NotoSans]

At least they make it a category 5 I seldom say storms are severely underestimated but I think it’s really the case this time. The agencies have (unfortunately) failed to perform a proper Dvorak analysis in the first place, and held the intensity below Dvorak and objective estimates without proper reasons. I would say peak intensity was near 160 knots at 18Z.

[euro6208]

That is prorably the most conservative estimate I have ever seen. Clearly was higher than 155 knots.

[Highteeld]

TYPHOON 30W 18:00UTC 01October2018
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 17:28:53 N
Longitude : 133:39:33 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 916.2 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 897.0 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 19.2 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 1.0 m/s ( 1.9 kts)
Direction : 68.6 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
N N N N

I'm not sold on Kong-Rey being peaked yet. Shear is literally 1 m/s -- which is apparent by the now uniform CDO -- and the diurnal max will occur in several hours. I think we could see the strongest of this storm tonight, and then followed by a rapid weakening phase when OHC's become inadequate.

[wxman57]

Cloud tops have clearly warmed over the past 3-4 hours. I think it peaked around 19Z today. How strong? We'll never know for sure. Oh, and it's moving over cooler and cooler water. In fact, it is approaching the area where Trami stalled for a while and upwelled a lot of cooler water.

Ok, one more thing - JMA's peak wind speed has been 105 kts, and they're the official agency for the basin (JTWC doesn't count as official for any basin). Of course, that's a 10-min wind, but it's way too low, I think.

[supercane4867]

While the operational fixes are laughable, I think a post-season upgrade to 150kt is pretty likely. The forecaster who's responsible for that 135kt advisory was clearly out to lunch.

[NotoSans]

Cloud tops have clearly warmed over the past 3-4 hours. I think it peaked around 19Z today. How strong? We'll never know for sure. Oh, and it's moving over cooler and cooler water. In fact, it is approaching the area where Trami stalled for a while and upwelled a lot of cooler water.

Ok, one more thing - JMA's peak wind speed has been 105 kts, and they're the official agency for the basin (JTWC doesn't count as official for any basin). Of course, that's a 10-min wind, but it's way too low, I think.

The JMA’s Dvorak table (aka the Koba table) have notoriously produced low intensity estimates for more intense systems. T7.0 corresponds to a 107KT on their scale.

[1900hurricane]

Kong-rey had an eye temp of >20ºC coincident with an ADT calculated CDO temp <-80ºC. As far as I can tell, the only two other times this has happened was with Haiyan '13 and Nida '09, although Nepartak '16 and Vongfong '14 also came very close (CDO within a degree of -80ºC). Additionally, Patricia '15 also meets this criteria if the more representative eye temps from polar orbiters is substituted in for the high angle geostationary eye temps. It's also possible that the small eyed Nuri '14 would meet this criteria if Himawari-8 were over the WPac at the time. Regardless, Kong-rey is in very rare company.

[Highteeld]

2018 WP 30 274.757 2018OCT01 181000 17.37 -133.61 3 908 161
2018 WP 30 274.778 2018OCT01 184000 17.38 -133.54 3 908 161
2018 WP 30 274.799 2018OCT01 191000 17.46 -133.38 3 907 162
2018 WP 30 274.819 2018OCT01 194000 17.53 -133.26 3 907 162
2018 WP 30 274.840 2018OCT01 201000 17.55 -133.13 3 906 162
2018 WP 30 274.861 2018OCT01 204000 17.54 -133.03 3 906 158
2018 WP 30 274.882 2018OCT01 211000 17.52 -132.97 3 905 164
2018 WP 30 274.903 2018OCT01 214000 17.52 -132.95 3 905 164
2018 WP 30 274.924 2018OCT01 221000 17.56 -132.89 2 902 167
2018 WP 30 274.944 2018OCT01 224000 17.59 -132.87 3 905 164
2018 WP 30 274.965 2018OCT01 231000 17.65 -132.75 3 904 165
2018 WP 30 274.986 2018OCT01 234000 17.66 -132.69 3 904 160
2018 WP 30 275.007 2018OCT02 001000 17.71 -132.62 3 904 160
2018 WP 30 275.028 2018OCT02 004000 17.78 -132.56 2 900 162
2018 WP 30 275.049 2018OCT02 011000 17.82 -132.44 2 902 161
2018 WP 30 275.069 2018OCT02 014000 17.85 -132.32 2 902 161