WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

I’d probably pull the trigger on a renumber now.

[Hayabusa]

12Z JMA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 154E NW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

94W INVEST 180927 1800 7.3N 152.8E WPAC 20 1003

[Hayabusa]

18Z JMA, quite a difference in position
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 153E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 27/12Z

[Hayabusa]

1st warning by 3z or 9z?
94W INVEST 180928 0000 7.5N 150.8E WPAC 25 996

[Hayabusa]

1st warning by 3z or 9z?
94W INVEST 180928 0000 7.5N 150.8E WPAC 25 996

3z WPAC has now 30W
30W THIRTY 180928 0000 7.2N 151.0E WPAC 25 1000

[Hayabusa]

1st warning, moving fast

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER A BROAD PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION THAT ALSO FEATURES AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TAIL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 272220Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T1.5 (25 KTS), AND IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH
A SMALL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. 30W IS
LOCATED ON THE BORDER OF MODERATE TO STRONG (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS BEEN DELAYING CONSOLIDATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD
30W IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO
EAST TOWARDS JAPAN IS CAUSING THE STR TO RE-ORIENT, ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWEST MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, ALTHOUGH ECMWF AND THE EC ENSEMBLE ARE NORTHERN
OUTLIERS, TRACKING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO GUAM. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF TRACK. STILL,
GIVEN THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING, WITH A SPREAD OF 115 NM AT TAU 48,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) DIVERGE TO THE
NORTH, INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. TD 30W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH IS HINDERING ITS RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE ALOFT MAY ENHANCE
OUTFLOW AND SUPPORT DEEPENING CONVECTION AND A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. TD 30W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSITY THROUGH
TAU 72, REACHING 90 KTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF MAINTAINING
THE SYSTEM AS MORE BROAD AND WEAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 48, WHEN THEY
DEPICT THE SYSTEM CONTRACTING AND INTENSIFYING. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INITIALLY HEDGED LOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INTENSIFY, REACHING 115 KTS BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72,
MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER INTO A TRIFURCATION SCENARIO. ECMWF AND THE
EC ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS AND PREDICT A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) ARE
THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT RECURVE AND NORTHWARD
TRACK. OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING UKMET, HWRF, AND GALWEM, CONTINUE TO
MOVE 30W TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN LATER
TAUS.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Won't get "violent" if it goes over the area churned by Trami

[Hayabusa]

00Z JMA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 152E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

Shear is moderate to strong. That has kept it at bay and preventing any significant intensification short term. Lucky for us.

[euro6208]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 28/0230Z

C. 7.7N

D. 150.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 2.5/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE. DT=2.5
MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Guam and Rota. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions...
including damaging winds of 39 mph or greater...are possible
within the next 24 hours.

[WALL-E]

It should be 30W already. It looks like it has a high possibility becoming another monster cyclone, will see.
BTW, this year WP is very active. Thirty storm formed just before October.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY TO THE WEST
OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL
280519Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE IMPROVING BANDING
STRUCTURE OF TD 30W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 30W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, TD 30W
WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 170 NM AT TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW TD 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. BY TAU 120, TD 30W WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STR AXIS AND
TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 800 NM BY TAU 120. ECMWF IS THE WESTERN
OUTLIER WITH CTCX THE EASTERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
...
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B.
...
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INTENSIFY, REACHING 115 KTS BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72,
MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER INTO A TRIFURCATION SCENARIO. ECMWF AND THE
EC ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS AND PREDICT A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) ARE
THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT RECURVE AND NORTHWARD
TRACK. OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING UKMET, HWRF, AND GALWEM, CONTINUE TO
MOVE 30W TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IN LATER
TAUS.//
NNNN

First time that I heard of the GALWEM model.
Apparently, it stands for 'Global Air-Land Weather Exploitation Model" and is based on the UKMET.
https://www.reddit.com/r/meteorology/co ... wem_model/

[euro6208]

After days of showing a Luzon landfall, EURO has another Trami like track. Wow Japan is really getting it this season.

[euro6208]

GFS east of Okinawa. Peaks it at 895 mb...