ATL: KIRK - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

...KIRK WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 63.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Kirk has become less organized since the last advisory, with
satellite imagery showing that the low-level center is now exposed
well to the west-northwest of the remaining deep convection.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the winds have decreased to near 40 kt and
that the central pressure has risen to near 1007 mb. The aircraft
also reports that the circulation is losing definition in the
southwestern quadrant. Kirk should continue to weaken due to the
effects of 30 kt of westerly vertical shear, and the NHC forecast
continues to call for dissipation just after 24 h. As noted in the
previous discussion, there is a chance dissipation could occur
earlier than currently forecast.

The center has jogged back to the west-northwest during the past
few hours, which results in an uncertain initial motion of 285/11.
Kirk should move generally west-northwestward on the south side of
the subtropical ridge until dissipation.

Even though Kirk is weakening and moving away from the Lesser
Antilles, the associated gusty winds and rains should continue
affecting the islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 14.2N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.8N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

...KIRK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM W OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Kirk is barely meeting the criteria for a tropical cyclone. The
small low-level center is still exposed well to the west of most of
the deep convection. The last fix from the earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found that the cyclone was still
closed, but the maximum winds had decreased to near 35 kt. Since
it seems likely that winds of this magnitude are still occuring in
the convection to the east of Kirk, the system is maintained as a
tropical storm for this advisory. Another reconnaissance mission
is scheduled for tonight, and it should give a better estimate of
the intensity of Kirk, and if the cyclone still has a well-defined
surface circulation.

No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity
forecasts. Kirk is expected to move generally west-northwestward to
northwestward over the next 12 hours or so while weakening due to
the continued effects of strong westerly wind shear. By tomorrow
morning, the cyclone will likely have degenerated into a trough of
low pressure. Even though Kirk is weakening, heavy rains are
expected over St Croix and eastern Puerto Rico during the next day
or two while Kirk or its remnants pass to the south of those
islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.7N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.3N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

...KIRK BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Even though there still appears to be a circulation center in
satellite imagery, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was
unable to find westerly winds that would support a closed
circulation. Therefore, Kirk has degenerated into an open wave,
and this will be the last advisory. The SFMR on the plane still
measured winds around 35 kt in the convection to the east of the
wave axis, and that will remain the initial intensity.

The wave will continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
during the next few days, with its winds gradually decreasing due
to continued westerly shear. Heavy rains are still possible over
portions of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix during the next day
or two while Kirk's remnants pass to the south.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.1N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg