ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:04 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 68A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
800 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...LESLIE HEADING FOR THE IBERIAN PENINSULA IN A HURRY...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 14.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:34 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 12.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES



Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Despite Leslie moving over 20C ocean and being embedded within
strong shear, satellite data indicate that Leslie has maintained
its deep warm core and is running ahead of a cold front. Although
convection has weakened considerably, Dvorak estimates indicate
that the winds are still 65 kt. All indications are that Leslie
will acquire extratropical characteristics in the next several
hours, and by the time it reaches the Iberian peninsula later today,
the system will be a powerful post-tropical cyclone. After landfall,
rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate
into a broad low pressure area over Spain in a day or so.

Leslie is racing toward the northeast or 055 degrees at about 29 kt
while embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies. A continued
northeastward motion with gradual decrease in forward speed is
anticipated in the next 12 to 24 hours. This is consistent with
most of the track guidance, which unanimously brings the core of the
post-tropical cyclone over the Iberian peninsula tonight.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 38.0N 12.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 40.0N 8.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 41.5N 4.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...LONG-LIVED LESLIE PREPARING TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF PORTUGAL AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 9.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PORTO PORTUGAL
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
or just north of Spain by late Sunday.

Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
guidance.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
on this system.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 40.5N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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