EPAC: ROSA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:40 pm

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Rosa continues to strengthen this afternoon. Improved deep
convective banding features with -83C cloud tops are evident in both
visible and microwave images, particularly in the east semicircle.
The initial intensity is bumped up to 70 kt and is a compromise of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

It still appears likely that Rosa will continue to quickly
strengthen through this evening while it moves over warm oceanic
temperatures and in a high moisture and low shear atmospheric
environment. The official forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models, and shows strengthening,
at a slower pace, after the RI period. Beyond 48 hours, steady
weakening is forecast due to decreasing sea surface temperatures,
increasing southwesterly shear, and a high statically stable
surrounding environment.

Rosa is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, within the
mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge
extending from northern Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific.
At around day 3, Rosa is expect to move northwestward and then
northward day 4 in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching
from the northwest. The along track spread beyond day 3 continues
to be an issue with the GFS global and HWRF hurricane model
indicating a much more faster north to north-northeast motion
than the slower European model cluster. In this scenario,
the NHC forecast will remain near the better performing various
multi-model consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 112.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.9N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 26.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:37 pm

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

During the past several hours, the convective pattern of Rosa has
become more symmetric, and perhaps an eye is trying to emerge in the
last few satellite images. Overall, Rosa appears somewhat stronger
than the past advisory, so the initial wind speed is slightly raised
to 75 kt- near the TAFB Dvorak estimate and the CIMSS ADT.

The hurricane has been steadily strengthening over the past day,
and, with conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the
forecast for the next couple of days, this trend should continue.
A more rapid intensification period is possible if the inner core
becomes better defined. Curiously, the intensity guidance has come
in lower than the last cycle, despite no obvious inhibiting factors
from all of the global models. I'd rather keep the high forecast of
my predecessor until the reasons for this lower peak intensity
become clear. In addition, the corrected-consensus guidance is
higher than the rest of the aids, supporting the stronger forecast.
By day 3 weakening should commence as Rosa moves over cooler waters,
and rapid weakening is possible by the end of the forecast while the
cyclone encounters high shear over quite cool waters.

Rosa has turned westward, now moving at about 10 kt. A mid-level
high over the southwestern United States should steer the hurricane
on this general course for the next day or so. After that time,
the high shifts eastward due to a series of troughs approaching the
west coast of the United States, causing Rosa to gradually turn
toward the northwest by Friday, north on Saturday and to the
northeast by Monday. There are still some pretty large speed
differences in the models at long range, with the GFS-based guidance
a lot faster than the ECMWF or UKMET models and their ensembles.
There are no obvious reasons to favor either solution at this time,
so the track forecast will stay close to the dynamical model
consensus and the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.9N 113.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#43 Postby Chris90 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:18 pm

Rosa has been consistently firing off some really deep convection, she just needs to fully wrap it around and get the CDO a bit more symmetric. The northwestern portion has been having a bit of trouble recently, but if she sorts that out, I'd say it is all systems go. Could be some impressive rapid intensification. Patiently waiting.
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:23 am

Image

T5.5. Likely only a Cat 2 but once this smooths out, this will likely be a Cat 4.
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:48 am

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018

The cloud pattern is a little more impressive with plenty of deep
convection and a well-defined cyclonically-curved band south of the
center. There is no evidence of an eye yet in conventional
IR imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies,
however, are unanimously 4.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the intensity
is kept at 75 kt. Both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are
favorable for intensification with the possibility of rapid
strengthening within the next 12 to 24 hours, although intensity
guidance is not as aggressive as in earlier runs. The NHC forecast
follows closely the intensity consensus and is very similar to the
previous one. Beyond 3 days, Rosa should be over cooler waters, and
by the time it reaches the northern Baja California peninsula, the
cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm.

Rosa is moving westward or 270 degrees at 10 kt steered by the deep
easterly flow around a subtropical ridge. Rosa will soon reach
the southwestern edge of the high and will begin to move toward the
northwest and northward as an eastward moving mid-level trough
erodes the high to the north. Rosa should then turn toward the
northeast ahead of the trough by the end of the forecast period.
This is the solution provided by most of the track models which all
turn the cyclone northward and then northeastward. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is in between
the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#46 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:01 am

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Rosa is becoming better organized. Conventional satellite imagery
show a large area of cold cloud tops near the center, and there is
a hint of an eye in the first-light visible images. Microwave
imagery indicates that the eye structure underneath the overcast
has become better defined, with less evidence of dry air entrainment
than seen yesterday. The initial intensity has been increased to
90 kt in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak estimate from
TAFB and the CIMSS ADT technique. The hurricane currently has good
outflow in all directions.

Conditions appear generally favorable for continued strengthening
for the next 24-36 hr, and the new intensity forecast now makes Rosa
a major hurricane in 12 h. It should be noted that if the current
strengthening is the start of the previously anticipated rapid
intensification Rosa could get stronger than the current forecast,
which shows a peak intensity of 105 kt near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. After 36 h, the forecast track takes the
cyclone over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and by the end of
the forecast period it is expected to encounter strong southwesterly
vertical shear. This combination should cause significant
weakening, and Rosa is expected to be a tropical storm as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula near the end of the
forecast period.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/10. For the next
12-24 h, the hurricane should move generally westward on the south
side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of northern
Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California. Subsequently, Rosa
should turn northwestward and northward through a break in the ridge
caused by a large mid-latitude trough moving eastward through the
northeastern Pacific. By 96-120 h, Rosa should recurve
northeastward into the westerlies on the eastern side of the trough
and move in the general direction of northwestern Mexico and the
northern Baja California peninsula. There remains some spread in
the guidance forward speed after recurvature, with the GFS being
faster than the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast is a blend of
these extremes in forward speed at the 96 and 120 h points.
Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little west since the
previous advisory, and the new track is also shifted a little
westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 17.2N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 29.5N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#47 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:30 am

Taken a lot of time but we finally got there. Eye coming and run at C4

Image
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#48 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:08 pm

Some serious RI is underway. This may reach 130kt by tonight
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#49 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:12 pm

It's only a partial pass, but it got most of the core. Rosa is looking pretty good.

Image
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#50 Postby Abdullah » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:01 pm

Is a Patricia possible?
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#51 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:05 pm

Definitely setting the stage for yet another cat 4 very soon. Finally gotten its act together.
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#52 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:11 pm

Abdullah wrote:Is a Patricia possible?

No. Not at all
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#53 Postby michelinj » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:18 pm

Abdullah wrote:Is a Patricia possible?


Patricia was a ridiculous storm that had the perfect conditions. I say Rosa has a small shot at cat5 maaaybe but Patricia won’t be topped for a while yet... probably
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#54 Postby TorSkk » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:49 pm

20E ROSA 180927 1800 17.0N 115.5W EPAC 105 957

Up to Cat 3
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#55 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:53 pm

Certainly looks the part.

Image
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#56 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:51 pm

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Rosa is undergoing rapid intensification, accompanied by the
formation of a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside the central
dense overcast. Recent subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are generally in the 100-115 kt range, and the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS
ADT and the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Rosa continues to
have good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The intensity forecast has some complexities. The first is how much
more Rosa will strengthen before the rapid intensification stops.
The new intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the guidance in
showing about 12 h more strengthening with a peak intensity of
120 kt. That being said, it would not be surprising if Rosa got
stronger than that. The simplest part of the forecast is from 24-72
h, when the sea surface temperatures cool along the forecast track
with Rosa gradually weakening as a result. After 72 h, the cyclone
should move across the quite cold waters of the northeastern
Pacific, and then move across Baja California over the warm water of
the Gulf of California. While that is happening, a mid-latitude
trough to the northwest is expected to cause both strong shear and
strong upper-level divergence over Rosa. The intensity guidance
responds to this combination of ingredients with intensity forecasts
of anywhere between 30-65 kt as Rosa makes landfall on the Baja
California peninsula. The new intensity forecast continues to call
for Rosa to weaken to a tropical storm before reaching Baja
California. However, this should be considered to be a low
confidence forecast at this time.

Rosa is farther south than estimated in the previous advisory, and
the new initial motion is now 265/9. Other than that, there is no
change in the forecast philosophy from the previous forecast. For
the next 12 h or so, the hurricane should move generally westward on
the south side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of
northern Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California.
Subsequently, Rosa should turn northwestward and northward through a
break in the ridge caused by the aforementioned large mid-latitude
trough moving eastward through the northeastern Pacific. By 96-120
h, Rosa should recurve northeastward into the westerlies on the
eastern side of the trough and move in the general direction of the
northern Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico. The
dynamical models show spread in both direction and speed as Rosa
approaches Baja. The ECMWF and the Canadian models are on the left
side of the envelope in forecasting landfall on the northern part of
the peninsula, while the GFS and the HWRF are on the right side with
a landfall closer to the central part of the peninsula. The new
forecast track lies between those extremes near the center of the
guidance envelope and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.9N 115.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 26.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#57 Postby TorSkk » Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:55 pm

Eye is surrounded by white and there is a single WMG pixel

Image
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#58 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:13 pm

Easy 6.0 and not far off from 6.5 with the black shade just failing width requirements. Perhaps around 115-120 kt soon.
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#59 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:51 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 941.8mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Hurricane

#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:52 pm

Image

T7.0 without constraints.
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