EPAC: ROSA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 127N, 985W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 130N, 993W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 95, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1001W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 95, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1010W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS034, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 95, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1019W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, ep782018 to ep952018,

[AnnularCane]

I just looked at the EPAC the other day and I swear there was nothing.

[cycloneye]

I just looked at the EPAC the other day and I swear there was nothing.

I think in the next few days we will have more invests in the basin.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple days while the system moves
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 09/24/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 46 57 71 83 92 97 101 105
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 46 57 71 83 92 97 101 105
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 58 72 82 89 94 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 3 5 11 10 10 7 3 2 3 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 2 2 1 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 36 41 74 73 59 58 67 73 19 52 346 46 76
SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 159 158 156 156 154 154 153 152 148 150
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 76 74 73 72 72 73 72 69 70 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 13 16 20 23 25 27 30
850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 18 19 21 26 28 29 45 65 64 52 47
200 MB DIV 30 46 61 75 92 92 88 55 34 68 30 69 71
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -2
LAND (KM) 497 519 547 566 604 637 651 691 798 898 988 1063 990
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.0 15.8
LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.3 106.0 106.5 107.1 108.0 108.7 109.5 111.0 112.9 114.7 115.7 115.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 5 4 4 5 9 9 8 2 6
HEAT CONTENT 50 45 36 30 28 26 25 23 22 30 24 17 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 9. 16. 21. 23. 25. 30.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 21. 32. 46. 58. 67. 72. 76. 80.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 104.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 7.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 7.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 3.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.1% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 21.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.6% 21.1% 14.8% 6.8% 4.9% 17.5% 20.7% 24.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 5.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 4.4%
Consensus: 0.9% 17.2% 13.6% 2.4% 1.7% 12.8% 14.5% 9.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 39.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 09/24/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to become better organized and have increased in coverage
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Astromanía]

Future Rosa, i think this system has a potential to be a potent hurricane in some days, it is strenghtening quikly

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located around 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[EquusStorm]

Most models intensify this significantly (some to major hurricane) and a good chunk of the ensembles seem content to plow it into central Baja California. Luckily a landfall that far north should bring weakening offshore before striking, but still.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast
of southwestern Mexico has now become a tropical depression, the
twentieth of the eastern North Pacific 2018 season. ASCAT data from
around 0400 UTC indicated that the system had a well-defined center
and maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. In addition, satellite
images show deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity
near the center. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, based on
the ASCAT data, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.

Since the depression has only recently formed, the initial motion
is an uncertain 280/7 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the
system should keep the depression on a westward to west-
northwestward path at about the same forward speed for the
next few days. Thereafter, the models show the ridge breaking down
due to a large cut off deep-layer low moving toward the west coast
of the United States. In response, the cyclone is expected to turn
to the northwest this weekend. The models agree on this overall
scenario, but there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the best performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the depression to
strengthen. SSTs are expected to remain quite warm beneath the
cyclone for the next several days while vertical wind shear values
are around 10 kt or less. These conditions combined with a
moist airmass should allow for at least steady strengthening during
the next 3 to 4 days. Some weakening is possible by the end of the
forecast period due to slightly cooler SSTs and an increase in
shear. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of
strengthening than the guidance, since the system is still
in the developing stage, but predicts peak winds near the IVCN
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.5N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Ntxw]

Low shear, warm water, and organized. Should be Rosa soon and my guess it does some RI and peaks as Cat 4.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become better
organized, with developing convective banding features. Dvorak
intensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB,
respectively, and the current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt.
Thus the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm. Conditions
favor continued strengthening, with Rosa likely to remain in an
environment of warm waters, low shear, and a very moist mid-level
air mass for the next several days. The official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but below some of
the objective guidance. By late in the forecast period, a gradual
weakening trend should commence as the system begins to move over
slightly cooler waters.

The storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. A mid-level
ridge is forecast by the global models to remain in place to the
north of Rosa through the middle part of the forecast period. This
would likely maintain a generally west-northwestward motion for the
next 72 hours or so. By days 4-5, the ridge is predicted to weaken
which should result in a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to that
from the previous advisory and is close to the corrected dynamical
model consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[EquusStorm]

This just has the look of something about to bomb out. Symmetry, thick cold topped bands, and a rapidly developing CDO.

[Ntxw]

This just has the look of something about to bomb out. Symmetry, thick cold topped bands, and a rapidly developing CDO.

I have to agree. Likely tight core that eye can quickly come out and become a major fast.

[1900hurricane]

Good early structure.

[Yellow Evan]

With a great structure and low shear for days this has Cat 4 written all over it.

[Yellow Evan]

25/1745 UTC 14.8N 108.5W T2.5/2.5 ROSA -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ROSA EP202018 09/25/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 55 65 77 94 110 113 109 107 101 97 86
V (KT) LAND 40 46 55 65 77 94 110 113 109 107 101 97 86
V (KT) LGEM 40 46 53 60 68 85 102 111 112 109 102 92 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 7 6 4 3 1 6 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 3 0 1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 47 59 68 67 42 15 344 348 87 133 192 223 209
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 154 153 152 151 149 146 142 136 129 122
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 70 71 70 65 63 59 55 49 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 24 24 30 32 33 36 37 39 39
850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 32 28 29 40 51 51 50 64 65 82 68
200 MB DIV 90 79 72 67 56 31 62 29 32 43 48 52 30
700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -7 -4 -2 0 3 2
LAND (KM) 630 653 686 735 788 808 865 930 987 974 946 923 864
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.5
LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.5 113.0 114.7 116.2 117.4 118.5 119.4 120.0 120.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 23 24 26 19 14 9 8 3 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 59.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 15. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 32.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 21. 27. 22. 11. 2. -5. -11. -15.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 37. 54. 70. 73. 69. 67. 61. 57. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 108.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/25/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 4.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -4.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 42.2% 28.2% 19.4% 13.6% 26.5% 37.8% 27.7%
Logistic: 29.2% 62.9% 44.6% 33.5% 45.8% 57.3% 56.9% 26.5%
Bayesian: 13.7% 65.6% 45.8% 32.7% 22.6% 51.4% 42.9% 2.3%
Consensus: 20.6% 56.9% 39.5% 28.6% 27.3% 45.1% 45.9% 18.9%
DTOPS: 16.0% 91.0% 77.0% 30.0% 27.0% 94.0% 81.0% 29.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/25/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[gfsperpendicular]

I don't think it'll be as strong, but this is a little similar to Patricia 2015

[supercane4867]

I don't think it'll be as strong, but this is a little similar to Patricia 2015

Not even close. The SSTs near Mexican coast was at record high during Patricia.