MED: ZORBAS - Hurricane over the Mediterranean Sea

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#21 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:03 pm

VIS at 15z today before sunset

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18z GFS analyzed the system at ~50kt TS intensity already

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#22 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:36 pm

WAcyclone wrote:The first ESTOFEX Mesoscale Discussion has been issued for this system which now already has formed. If I understand the following correctly, they predict a hurricane-strength landfall on the southern part of the Peloponnese peninsula. 30 m/s equate to around 65 kt 1-minute sustained winds.


Yes, it seems they predicted maximal intensity around 60-65 kt.

It had 40-45 kt winds near 19 UTC per ASCAT, however the circulation was still asymmetric. Since then, the convection started to wrap aroound the center, and the cyclone is gradually loosing its extratropical characteristics.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/ascat/MetopA/WINDS/cur_25km/zooms/WMBas158.png

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#23 Postby GSBHurricane » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:21 pm

I wonder if these things will eventually get named at the rate these are forming.
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:27 am

GSBHurricane wrote:I wonder if these things will eventually get named at the rate these are forming.



In my unofficial archives I add them in with the Atlantic ;)
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:10 am

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#26 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:02 am

Ship 'WLMQ' reported 49 kt wind and 1001.7 hPa pressure at 06 UTC NE from the cyclone's center (35,2N, 19,9E).
Based on these, the central pressure is likely between 990-995 hPa, and the intensity is 50-55 kt.

This is a well-defined subtropical storm now.

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#27 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:09 am

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#28 Postby Nightwatch » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:15 am

GSBHurricane wrote:I wonder if these things will eventually get named at the rate these are forming.


In those areas they call it : Zorbas
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#29 Postby WAcyclone » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:21 am

According to the new ESTOFEX Mesoscale discussion, this system is already very close to hurricane strength. 10-minute sustained winds of 55 kt equate to 63 kt 1-minute winds. Also note the forecast peak intensity has been increased to 986 mb/68 kt which would be near the upper end of Category 1.


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Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 28 Sep 2018 09:00 to Fri 28 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 28 Sep 2018 09:01
Forecaster: ESTOFEX

This is a Mesoscale Discussions issued for a cyclone that is primarily driven by convection, issued twice daily before 9, and 21 UTC until the cyclone dissipates or becomes extratropical. This Mesocale Discussion is not an official producat and does not substitute any warnings from National Meteorological Services. We welcome any feedback at inflow@estofex.org.

System: 2018M02
At 28 SEP 0600UTC the storm centre was located near 34.8N and 18.7E
Estimated minimum pressure: 995 mb.
Maximum sustained winds: 28 m/s (55 kt, 100 km/h).
Maximum gusts: 35 m/s (70 kt, 125 km/h).

ANALYSIS

Overnight, the cyclone has organized and deepened, while drifting northward. Cloud bands are spiralling around the intensified vortex, although a tight inner circulation has not (yet) developed. A subjective Hebert-Poteat technique estimate yields T numbers between 3.0 and 3.5 at 06 UTC, supporting a minimum pressure of near 995 mb and maximum sustained winds near 28 m/s.

FORECAST

Models are in agreement that the cyclone should move only very slowly during the next 12 hours, before accelerating east-northeastward towards the Peloponnese, as an upper left trough approaches from the northwest. The greastest uncertainty in the forecast is the extent of interaction with the mountainous region of the Peloponnese: ICON and UKMO predicting the greatest interaction and strongest weakening, whereas ECMWF and ARPEGE continue feature a more southerly track with less influence on the inner core. The new track and intensity forecast are a blend of these different solutions. The track has been adjusted slightly to the south, and is quicker after 36 hours. The forecast takes the cyclone into Northwestern Anatolia on Sunday evening, upon which the cyclone will weaken rapidly.

The cyclone is predicted to intensify somewhat more prior to landfall the Peloponnese as suggsted by UKMO and ARPEGE, before moderate weakening occurs. As said, the intensity forecast after 36 hours is strongly dependent on the level of interaction with terrain and therefore rather uncertain.
The primary hazard of the cyclone is expected to be very heavy precipitation. Amounts of 200-300 mm can be expected on Saturday and Sunday across the Peloponnese, 125-250 mm over Attica, Eastern Central Greece (including Euboia) and the Cyclades, and 50–125 mm over southern Crete, Western Anatolia, the North Aegean Islands and Dodecanese Islands. In addition, isolated hurricane force winds and widespread hurricane force gusts will likely affect the southern Peloponnese coasts and the Cyclades.

Forecast:

FH DATE & TIME LOCATION PRESSURE WIND MAX.GUSTS
00 28SEP 0600 UTC 34.8N 18.7E 995 mb 28 m/s 35 m/s
12 28SEP 1800 UTC 35.2N 18.6E 991 mb 30 m/s 40 m/s
24 29SEP 0600 UTC 35.9N 20.8E 986 mb 35 m/s 45 m/s
36 29SEP 1800 UTC 36.7N 23.1E 992 mb 30 m/s 40 m/s NEAR COAST
48 30SEP 0600 UTC 37.7N 25.0E 997 mb 30 m/s 40 m/s
60 30SEP 1800 UTC 39.0N 26.7E 999 mb 25 m/s 30 m/s AT COAST
72 01OCT 0600 UTC 38.8N 27.2E 1002 mb 20 m/s 25 m/s INLAND


Link to the discussion: http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2018092821_201809280901_0_mesoscalediscussion.xml
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#30 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:23 am

Wow I just found this thread. Awesome to follow. This latest RGB satellite shows it's still subtropical but it's just drifting so it's got plenty of time to become all tropical.

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#31 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:59 am

Already look much better than Leslie

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#32 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:27 am

Daytime animation:

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#33 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:37 am

So....how well is Greece prepared for in the event of hurricane force winds?
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#34 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:13 pm

I would say with this recent deep convection that has developed right at the center is pretty indicative of a SUBtropical storm. not much more and it would be tropical.

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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#35 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:30 pm

Do these things ever hit the far eastern Mediterranean (Levant)? Like Lebanon, Israel etc? Or is it just the Ionian Sea region?
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Tropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#36 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:28 pm

DEC 2005 system made landfall over lebanon. But was developed over South Ionian sea. A Med TC was Never developed over east mediterranean Sea.
On my website i have create a map for major Med TC development area: http://www.medicanes.altervista.org
Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:55 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Tropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#37 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:33 pm

galaxy401 wrote:So....how well is Greece prepared for in the event of hurricane force winds?

They can get extratropical cyclones with hurricane-force gusts. Structures are overall pretty robust like with most of the mediterranean, and storm surge won't be much of a concern due to elevation. Flooding rainfall is probably the biggest problem that this cyclone may bring.
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Tropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#38 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:31 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:So....how well is Greece prepared for in the event of hurricane force winds?

They can get extratropical cyclones with hurricane-force gusts. Structures are overall pretty robust like with most of the mediterranean, and storm surge won't be much of a concern due to elevation. Flooding rainfall is probably the biggest problem that this cyclone may bring.


Depending on the infrastructure, though, the rainfall problem can be catastrophic. In Lebanon, at least, even ordinary storms can cause a big polluted mess, due to the lack of proper drainage, garbage disposal, sewage treatment, or...really any infrastructure really.
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Tropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#39 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:41 pm

DanieleItalyRm wrote:Dec.2005 system landfall over lebanon. But was developed over South Ionian sea. A MedTC was Never developed over east mediterranean Sea.
In my website i have create a map for major MedTC developed area: http://www.medicanes.altervista.org


Do you know about the level of damage from that one?
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Re: MED: ZORBAS - Tropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

#40 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:49 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Do these things ever hit the far eastern Mediterranean (Levant)? Like Lebanon, Israel etc? Or is it just the Ionian Sea region?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119546
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