CPAC: WALAKA - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#101 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:14 pm

Yeah because I'd totally want to be on a small boat in the path of a Cat. 5. :lol:
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#102 Postby Chris90 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.

Impossible to get there unless you rent a private jet.


Through a permit from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service it's possible by boat I believe.


Isn't Josh filming a new TV show/documentary called hurricane man? I can see it now "ok guys. We're going to take this boat through Cat 5 Walaka and get some ground-breaking footage that includes a desperate fight for survival. I'm going to re-define what it means to get that hawt eyewall action."

Just kidding. Josh is always really safe and works hard to ensure the safety of everyone.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#103 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:04 pm

Cloud tops warming. Hope this holds together for 2 more hours to get a 7.0 and then pray the JTWC and CPHC don't mess Dvorak up.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#104 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:40 pm

EWRC time :cry:

Image
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#105 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:48 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Cloud tops warming. Hope this holds together for 2 more hours to get a 7.0 and then pray the JTWC and CPHC don't mess Dvorak up.



And already happened.

TPPZ01 PGTW 012226

A. HURRICANE 01C (WALAKA)

B. 01/2100Z

C. 12.72N

D. 169.17W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET IS 5.0. PT IS 5.5. DBO CONTRAINTS; HOWEVER, 24HR
CONSTRAINT WAS BROKEN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ZOUFALY


It's called do a 6 hour average DT. Probably time to go 140 based on averages of DT but no agency is going to do this.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#106 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:49 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 12:46:47 N Lon : 169:26:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 924.8mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +16.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#107 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:51 pm

How long till hes out of these conditions? EWRC could boost it. We'll probably see some plateauing then more strengthening. It's likely at 5 already but I wouldn't be surprised if CPHC raises it to 160 at 8 but I doubt it.

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#108 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:53 pm

Even if objective dvorak stays at T6.5, based on the blend of dvorak and ADT still support adjusting intensity upward to 135kt. 130kt makes nonsense at all
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#109 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:19 pm

Does anyone know of a site where one can access a (preferably visible) wide view of the western Pacific and the central Pacific?
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#110 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:29 pm

It's going to be a horrible shame if this never gets operationally classified at category five. If an ERC is already starting I doubt it completes it in time. If this were in the East Pacific or Atlantic, I think they would have gone 140kt.

EDIT: Lol, spoke too soon
Last edited by EquusStorm on Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#111 Postby Chris90 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:35 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Does anyone know of a site where one can access a (preferably visible) wide view of the western Pacific and the central Pacific?


https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/gri ... .html#play

This is the site I personally use quite a bit. It's in a different language, I believe it's German, not positive, but after playing around with it some I've got it pretty well figured out. I like it a lot for tracking in the southern hemisphere too.
I'm sure other members have better links, but I figured I would post this one for you just in case. Let me know if the link doesn't work for you.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#112 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:51 pm

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#113 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:54 pm

WTPA31 PHFO 012348
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Walaka Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012018
200 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018

...HURRICANE WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.6W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Johnston Atoll

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should
monitor the progress of Walaka.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Walaka was located
near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 169.6 West. Walaka is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late tonight through Tuesday with a gradual
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Walaka is expected to pass just to the west of Johnston Island on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Walaka is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected through
early Tuesday before Walaka starts a gradual weakening trend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (300 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected across Johnston Island
starting late tonight or early Tuesday, with hurricane conditions
expected by Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large surf will affect the Johnston Island reefs and
shorelines starting later today.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Walaka is expected to reach
Johnston Atoll late today or tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#114 Postby StruThiO » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:55 pm

Blessed be :lol:
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#115 Postby Highteeld » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:58 pm

StruThiO wrote:Blessed be :lol:

The only issue is that it's probably not a cat 5 anymore
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#116 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:59 pm

I'm glad that CPHC pulled the trigger. Wise decision for them
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#117 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:59 pm

Highteeld wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Blessed be :lol:

The only issue is that it's probably not a cat 5 anymore


Hard to say. If they brought recon in they'd find 150-155 FL winds as this is only in the early stages of an ERC.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#118 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:00 pm

Highteeld wrote:
StruThiO wrote:Blessed be :lol:

The only issue is that it's probably not a cat 5 anymore

CI# is still at 7.0. Most likely it's a CAT5. The outer eyewall haven't begin to contract yet.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#119 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:02 pm

They were late but atleast they upgraded it.

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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane

#120 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:05 pm

The trend lately seems to be 6-12 hours late classifying, issuing final advisories, or upgrading intensity. Being a bit too conservative and cautious, but I'm in no place to argue with their reasoning. There will probably be a few time/intensity changes made in postseason analysis and setting Walaka at category five a few hours earlier might be one of them.

Looks like the only other year multiple category five storms occurred in the Central Pacific was 1994. So that's pretty neat I guess
Last edited by EquusStorm on Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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