EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114784
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#121 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:38 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl
of low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in
the northern semicircle. In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite
resembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical
characteristics. Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now
support a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is
already over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening
should continue from now on. Sergio, however, is expected to still
be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula
on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with
the high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical
depression followed by dissipation.

Sergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward
the northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are
not expected to change, the general motion should continue
until dissipation in about 36 hours os so. Track models continue to
be in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio
over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a
little more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

longhorn2004
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#122 Postby longhorn2004 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:57 pm

Local weather really do not know where its going in Texas. Some say central Texas and some say the panhandle.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114784
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

#123 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:34 pm

Remnants Of Sergio Discussion Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The center of Sergio moved over the high terrain of northwestern
Mexico and no longer has a well-defined circulation center. On
this basis, NHC has issued the last advisory on this system. The
remnants of Sergio will move toward the northeast about 22 kt and
could still produce gusty winds in heavy squalls.

Sergio's remnants will continue to produce heavy rains which
could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
within mountainous terrain in northwestern Mexico. Flash
flooding is also possible across the U.S. Desert
Southwest and the Southern Plains through the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO
12H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3713
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: Eastern Dallas County, TX

Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

#124 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:35 am

54 advisories seems like an awful lot for an EPAC system that eventually strikes Mexico. This thing was out there forever!
3 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

Click here to join us in Storm2k.org's official (and operational!) chatroom!

Rules for the Storm2k.org chatroom

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1425
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

#125 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:23 pm

Sergio also dumped us some rain yesterday. It has been a wet October after the entire year up to this point was dry!
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests