EPAC: SERGIO - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#101 Postby StormChaser75 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:32 am

Here are some images I made of Sergio from about ~30 mins ago.
Image
Image
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#102 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:39 pm

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past
several hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and
there is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave
overpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial
intensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt.

Very little change has been made to the official track or intensity
forecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward
over the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is
practically already inside the eye of the hurricane. By Tuesday,
one or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western
side of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S.
should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly,
although the various global models solutions have changed with this
forecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only
minor adjustments were required to the official track forecast.

Slow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio
possibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will
be moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of
weakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#103 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:21 pm

Suddenly I'm in the mood for a donut. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#104 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:18 pm

Looks 100% annular now.

Image
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#105 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:36 pm

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding
convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and
subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little
significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to
24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2
days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening
trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a
tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California
peninsula.

Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and
is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is
expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the
U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve
northeastward with increasing forward speed. The track guidance is
in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the
next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond
3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone
very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4
days or so. The NHC forecast is not very different from the
previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#106 Postby DioBrando » Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:50 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks 100% annular now.

https://i.imgur.com/kAoeBfQ.gif

He's beautiful
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#107 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:57 am

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Sergio continues to have a large 60 nmi diameter eye with several
mesovorticies within it. Although the cloud pattern is quite
symmetric around the eye, the cloud tops are not very cold, likely
due to some ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane. The Dvorak
estimates are largely unchanged from earlier and still support an
initial intensity of 80 kt.

Sergio is now drifting northwestward in weak steering currents. A
shortwave trough is expected to approach Sergio from the north, and
that feature, and a large trough over the southwestern United States
should cause Sergio to turn northeastward tonight. This motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through the remainder of
the week. The models are in good agreement overall, and the NHC
track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Based on this forecast, Sergio is expected to be very near the Baja
California peninsula in about 4 days.

Sergio is expected to hold its strength or weaken only slightly
during the next day or so while it remains in a favorable
atmospheric environment. However, steady weakening is expected
after that time due to increasing shear, drier air, and
progressively cooler waters along the forecast track. Based on the
intensity guidance and environmental conditions, Sergio is expected
to be a tropical storm by the time it nears the Baja California
peninsula. The cyclone should weaken quickly once it moves inland.
The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Recent ASCAT data was very helpful in analyzing the 34- and 50-kt
wind radii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
120H 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:50 am

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Sergio's structure has remained nearly steady-state for the past 24
hours. A solid ring of deep convection surrounds Sergio's giant
eye, and there is little evidence of any convective bands. Despite
upwelling that is presumably occuring beneath the slow moving
hurricane, cloud tops have actually cooled over the past few hours,
and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have not
changed. The initial intensity has therefore been held at 80 kt,
which also agrees with a 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

As long as Sergio can maintain its annular structure in an
environment of negligible shear, only very gradual weakening is
expected, despite presumably cooling waters beneath the cyclone
associated with its slow movement. The ECMWF and GFS forecast that
the shear will begin to increase in about 24 to 36 hours, and the
cyclone will also be reaching much cooler waters shortly after that
time. A faster rate of weakening is therefore anticipated beyond
48 h, in line with the latest intensity consensus, and Sergio is
forecast to be a tropical storm when it approaches northwestern
Mexico in a few days. The cyclone should weaken quickly after
landfall, and will likely dissipate over the high terrain of
mainland Mexico, though a 5 day remnant low point is still shown
for continuity purposes.

Sergio is moving very little right now, and the slow motion will
likely continue during the day today. By tonight, a large trough
centered over the southwestern United States will cause the
hurricane to accelerate northeastward. The track guidance is in
good agreement on the track of Sergio, although there is still some
uncertainty associated with the timing for when Sergio will reach
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Only minor changes
were made to the official track forecast, which lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope and very close to TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#109 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:40 pm

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Sergio still consists almost entirely of a solid ring of deep
convection surrounding a very large eye. A pair of timely ASCAT
passes from around 1800 UTC show that the hurricane wind field
remains very symmetric with a large RMW. Although we wouldn't
expect that instrument to capture the true magnitude of the
hurricane's maximum winds, the data does suggest that the winds have
decreased at least a little since this morning. UW-CIMSS SATCON
values have also decreased, so the initial intensity is lowered
slightly to 75 kt.

The hurricane is moving very slowly northward, around 3 kt. There
has been no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast and
Sergio should still accelerate northeastward in a day or so,
approaching the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week.
Nearly all of the models have shifted a little toward the south
beyond 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that
direction as well, but now lies just north of the multi-model
consensus.

In the short-term, Sergio is still forecast to gradually weaken
while it moves very little and continues to upwell cold waters.
Beyond 24 h, the hurricane should reach additional cooler waters to
the north, which should cause additional gradual weakening. In
general, the intensity guidance is forecasting Sergio to maintain
its intensity a little longer than previously forecast, so the NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher at 48 h and
72 h. It's worth noting that the hurricane would likely maintain
its intensity longer if it moves a little farther south over warmer
waters, and any further adjustments southward to the track forecast
could have implications on the intensity forecast. By Friday
afternoon, the cyclone should have reached the Baja California
peninsula and more rapid weakening should follow. Although the
low-level center of Sergio will likely quickly dissipate after
reaching mainland Mexico, its mid-level remnants and moisture will
continue northeastward, potentially causing heavy rainfall across
parts of the southwestern United States.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.7N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#110 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:42 pm

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared
imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining
about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye. This
primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the
satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial
intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.

Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it
traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures. Beyond that
period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface
temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce
further weakening and at a faster rate. Toward the end of the week,
Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California
peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days. At which time,
the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low
over the southwestern United States. Moisture associated with the
remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and
portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could
potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt.
Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and
approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.
The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0000Z 35.4N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#111 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:59 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks 100% annular now.

https://i.imgur.com/kAoeBfQ.gif


That is the first thing I thought. It seems like Pacific has more annular hurricanes than the Atlantic.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#112 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:13 am

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little in the past 6 hours and is
comprised of a fragmented, large outer ring, about 100 n mi in
diameter. The coldest cloud tops are now confined to just the
southeast portion of cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the
initial intensity at 75 kt.

Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is
expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally
conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear
surrounding environment. Afterward, the cyclone should enter a
region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening
and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall. Sergio
is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and
into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday. At
the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further
degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States.
The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the NOAA-HCCA and the
GFS and ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall as a
tropical storm.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to
affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United
States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall
in this region. For more information about this potential hazard,
see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS
forecast office.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/5 kt.
Sergio should begin accelerating in the aforementioned direction
this morning, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in
about 3 days. There is high confidence in the forecast track as the
available global and regional models are clustered tightly together
through day 5. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance
cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0600Z 36.3N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Hurricane

#113 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:50 am

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Sergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening. Cloud tops on
the western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased. However, recent
AMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a
large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels. The
initial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate.

There has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only
very gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h.
Beyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the
still-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued
weakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja
California peninsula. Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a
tropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula in a few days. Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio
makes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this
week, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low
shortly after moving inland.

Virtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which
remains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. All of the global
and regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally
northeastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California
peninsula on Friday. There is still some disagreement among the
models regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but
there is very little cross-track spread. Confidence in the track
forecast is fairly high.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to
affect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United
States, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could
potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 126.5W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby longhorn2004 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:51 pm

So when is Sergio suppose to cross the Baja, Mexico and into Texas?
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:38 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

The GOES-15 satellite presentation and an earlier ATMS polar
orbiter microwave image revealed little change in Sergio's cloud
pattern during the past 6 hours. Deep convection persists in the
north semicircle in the form of a rather large curved band while the
southern portion is comprised of fragmented bands. A blend of the
Dvorak satellite classifications, which haven't changed much,
supports holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.

Very little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12
hours, as Sergio traverses relatively warm oceanic temperatures and
remains in a low shear surrounding environment. Afterward,
statistical and dynamical intensity guidance shows weakening through
the 48 period, or prior to landfall, as the cyclone moves over
cooler waters and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical
shear. Over the weekend, after quickly moving over Baja California
Sur, Sergio will weaken further over the state of Sonora in
northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, and
dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/10
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue
to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next
few days, moving over Baja California Sur on Friday, and over the
Gulf of California and into northwestern Mexico Friday night and
Saturday.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will
likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S.
Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 17.5N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby bob rulz » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:58 pm

longhorn2004 wrote:So when is Sergio suppose to cross the Baja, Mexico and into Texas?


Friday and Saturday
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:49 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during
the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.
Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively
warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both
of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,
the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected
to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja
California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over
mainland Mexico and weaken much faster.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit
earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and
consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast
remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:43 pm

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This evening's satellite presentation depicts a rather ragged and
elongated banding eye-like feature with fragmented curved bands
encircling the periphery of cyclone. The subjective intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, however, still yield an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that the westerly shear has
increased to 15-20 kt, and the Decay-SHIPS as well as the global
models indicate that the shear magnitude will increase further to
near 50 kt prior to landfall. This inhibiting upper wind pattern
along with slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence
some further weakening as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula. Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California
Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early
Saturday as a depression. At the end of the forecast period, Sergio
is expected to further degenerate into a post-tropical weak low over
the southwestern United States. The intensity forecast is based on
the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models which show Sergio
making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/14 kt,
and this general motion is forecast through the entire 72 hour
period with a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be
approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although
the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.
There is continued high confidence in the forecast track as the
available large-scale and hurricane models are clustered tightly
together through 72 hours. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of
the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.0N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: SERGIO - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:00 am

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB haven't changed either. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the
coldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north
portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A combination
of increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable
surrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures
should influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula. The cyclone is expected to move inland over
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state
of Sonora early Saturday. Afterward, rapid weakening, and
ultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second
landfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico. A 72 hour
post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent
the inland motion of Sergio. The intensity forecast is once
again based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which
show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue
moving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with
a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching
the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the
tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.
The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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