ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Wonder if we'll get a PTC later today

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I was thinking the same thing. With a high chance of development within 48 hours AND land being impacted then (NE Yucatan or west Cuba), it falls within the NHC's criteria for initiating advisories. It's not a hard and fast rule, however. Given the level of uncertainty, I wouldn't be surprised if they hold off on issuing any advisories on this PTC. Wish I had that luxury. My latest track has it inland near Pensacola as a 50kt TS Wednesday evening. However, given the level of shear expected, I wouldn't be surprised if the center reforms/forms farther east and a quite sheared storm moves inland east of Apalachicola. Either way, the FL Peninsula will likely get a good bit of rain, as squalls will extend well east of the track.

So are you now not trusting the GFS's UL forecast of basically very little windshear over the system as it nears the northern gulf coast?

[PSUHiker31]

Wonder if we'll get a PTC later today

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I was thinking the same thing. With a high chance of development within 48 hours AND land being impacted then (NE Yucatan or west Cuba), it falls within the NHC's criteria for initiating advisories. It's not a hard and fast rule, however. Given the level of uncertainty, I wouldn't be surprised if they hold off on issuing any advisories on this PTC. Wish I had that luxury. My latest track has it inland near Pensacola as a 50kt TS Wednesday evening. However, given the level of shear expected, I wouldn't be surprised if the center reforms/forms farther east and a quite sheared storm moves inland east of Apalachicola. Either way, the FL Peninsula will likely get a good bit of rain, as squalls will extend well east of the track.

So are you now not trusting the GFS's UL forecast of basically very little windshear over the system as it nears the northern gulf coast?

The three most important global models have this becoming a hurricane. Euro deepens the system 11 mb in the 6 hours prior to landfall. UKMET has it at 968 before landfalling in the 970s

[SFLcane]

Most of the wx of this thing will be shunted eastward due to shear so some squalls should sweep across the FL peninsula next week.

[weathermimmi]

I live between Pensacola and Panama City in Fort Walton and the water is extremely warm compared to past years at this time. This along with favorable conditions in the GOM will certainly let it ramp up, the dry air will be the saving grace that will damper this storm potentially.

[northjaxpro]

Well, when you have agreement in the short to medium term among EURO, GFS and UKMETwith regards of this system becoming a rather formidable tropical cyclone on approach to landfall, Well that folks definitely grabs my attention for sure!!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1048572748287623169

[wxman57]

So are you now not trusting the GFS's UL forecast of basically very little wind shear over the system as it nears the northern gulf coast?

No, the GFS always tries to move the shear out of the way of a storm its developing. I think the shear will still be there (20+ kts). Euro does not handle shear well at all. It will tend to be too strong and too far west in such a scenario. I'm considering shifting my track east to the mid FL Panhandle for our next advisory. Center may form east of where the models are indicating, which is common in a high-shear environment. Upper wind are just ripping from WSW-ENE across the NW Caribbean presently.

[KUEFC]

So are you now not trusting the GFS's UL forecast of basically very little wind shear over the system as it nears the northern gulf coast?

No, the GFS always tries to move the shear out of the way of a storm its developing. I think the shear will still be there (20+ kts). Euro does not handle shear well at all. It will tend to be too strong and too far west in such a scenario. I'm considering shifting my track east to the mid FL Panhandle for our next advisory. Center may form east of where the models are indicating, which is common in a high-shear environment. Upper wind are just ripping from WSW-ENE across the NW Caribbean presently.

What’s the furthest east so you see this getting?

[Ntxw]

To me this looks like season end the way it began. Scenario like this smells just like how the season started with Alberto. You can pretty much go back to that thread and see the close similarities.

[shortwave1]

is the east center formation due to all of the llv rotating out to the west sw until more consolidation occurs from the larger gyre?

[NDG]

So are you now not trusting the GFS's UL forecast of basically very little wind shear over the system as it nears the northern gulf coast?

No, the GFS always tries to move the shear out of the way of a storm its developing. I think the shear will still be there (20+ kts). Euro does not handle shear well at all. It will tend to be too strong and too far west in such a scenario. I'm considering shifting my track east to the mid FL Panhandle for our next advisory. Center may form east of where the models are indicating, which is common in a high-shear environment. Upper wind are just ripping from WSW-ENE across the NW Caribbean presently.

OK, I misunderstood you the other day, I thought you had said that the GFS does better with windshear forecast than the Euro which in this case shows higher shear than the GFS.

[MGC]

Sea surface temperatures will not be an issue. Gulf is still toasty. Shear looks pretty light over the Gulf currently and looking at the forecast for early next week I don't see a major increase in shear across the Gulf. Conditions could be quite favorable. Don't expect things to start ramping up till 91L gets into the Gulf. I think this one is taking a Florida vacation.....MGC

[GCANE]

Obvious long-term feature to watch is the ULL anchoring in over the GOM.
Looks pretty weak.
Need to watch if convection fills in and takes it out.
GFS forecasting a transition to an anti-cyclone once 91L / Michael gets into the GOM

[KUEFC]

Sea surface temperatures will not be an issue. Gulf is still toasty. Shear looks pretty light over the Gulf currently and looking at the forecast for early next week I don't see a major increase in shear across the Gulf. Conditions could be quite favorable. Don't expect things to start ramping up till 91L gets into the Gulf. I think this one is taking a Florida vacation.....MGC

Where about in FL you thinking?

[psyclone]

This system certainly gives the impression that it will be a classic "track tilting right with time" storm as it advances northward in the Gulf. I expect we're gonna get some good rain and squalls on the west coast of fl even if the center holds west of 84. The good news is that we've dried out a good bit here on the western peninsula the past couple of weeks so we can handle some decent rainfall. My gut says some fun TS weather rather than a more threatening system but you never know. I'm certainly paying close attention but remain in the "not worried" camp as of now. Let's hope it stays that way.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of reminds me of a Hurricane Opal and Eloise type scenario. Just a thought not a prediction.

[MGC]

This system certainly gives the impression that it will be a classic "track tilting right with time" storm as it advances northward in the Gulf. I expect we're gonna get some good rain and squalls on the west coast of fl even if the center holds west of 84. The good news is that we've dried out a good bit here on the western peninsula the past couple of weeks so we can handle some decent rainfall. My gut says some fun TS weather rather than a more threatening system but you never know. I'm certainly paying close attention but remain in the "not worried" camp as of now. Let's hope it stays that way.

This is exactly my thoughts. Trough advancing eastward will push system eastward with time. Kinda like Opal just not as strong. Panhandle looks to be the target area IMO.....MGC

[bella_may]

Needs to stay away from west mobile. We’ve had enough rain

[hurricanedude]

Is this a situation where once landfall it races up the coast with gales and flooding rains into the MA states?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a big anti-cyclone just popped up from that rapid-fire convection at approx 16.5N 87.8W.
Note the sudden shift in the cloud motion SW of the convection.


http://i66.tinypic.com/11lobgp.png

http://i65.tinypic.com/afhx6q.gif

yeah the weak shear axis only needed a little nudge from some deep convection. shear looks to be dropping pretty quickly on sat.

Also looks like we have some organized structured convection building on the eas side of the circ. first signs of real orginizations.