ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Gfs and Euro are on the same page now, the Gfs is just a tad bit faster.

Models showing the more tempered intensity upon LF so it should indeed weaken slightly before it makes landfall. I have my doubts it'll be a major, I'd go with 100mph Cat 2.

[BobHarlem]

GFS/FV3/Euro /CMC are all saying around Destin
UK/Icon/HWRF/HMON are all saying around PCB

All are in the late afternoon or evening on Wednesday.

[bella_may]

GFS/FV3/Euro /CMC are all saying around Destin
UK/Icon/HWRF/HMON are all saying around PCB

All are in the late afternoon or evening on Wednesday.

Tonight will be interesting!

[MrJames]

12Z EPS so far

[BobHarlem]

18z earlies Super concentrated between Destin and PCB.

[chaser1]

12Z EPS so far

https://i.imgur.com/dVUWoH5.png

I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)

[FLpanhandle91]

12Z EPS so far

https://i.imgur.com/dVUWoH5.png

I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)

So the issue is that the stronger storm will also be influenced westward and poleward around the stengthening ridge before landfall. The timing of the front is slower in the latest Euro and GFS runs.

[drezee]

I only trust the 0z Euro...12z has been off this year...

[FLpanhandle91]

4PM NHC track agrees with the 12z GFS.

[chaser1]

12Z EPS so far

https://i.imgur.com/dVUWoH5.png

I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)

So the issue is that the stronger storm will also be influenced westward and poleward around the stengthening ridge before landfall. The timing of the front is slower in the latest Euro and GFS runs.

While your statement is generally correct, it does not at all address my point. I was addressing an EPS ensemble run showing most of it's stronger EURO members actually turning sooner and more to the Northeast then most other (weaker) members. There's a link above, if you'd like to take a look (I simply did not re-post the same large graph within the forum since it had just been recently presented)

[FLpanhandle91]

I don't know about this. Just take a look at the distinctly greater concentration of stronger members (in red). Those happen to be largely weighted to the right of the center line average. Just makes me question the Operational EURO (and overall model consensus) that a major hurricane will landfall further west with less of a pronounced eastward shift to occur. I'll be very surprised if this storm acquires Cat 3 intensity yet continues to maintain a much more pole-ward track to landfall. If intensity reaches or exceeds that level and thus becomes that much deeper of a storm, then I'd guess at least "some" added upper steering influence from say 300 mb to 500mb would impact a more "east of north" track to commence by tomm. eve (10/10 - 0Z). Should that occur, then an earlier bend to the N.E. would result in landfall close or east of Apalach and perhaps close to St. Marks (or even east of there?)

So the issue is that the stronger storm will also be influenced westward and poleward around the stengthening ridge before landfall. The timing of the front is slower in the latest Euro and GFS runs.

While your statement is generally correct, it does not at all address my point. I was addressing an EPS ensemble run showing most of it's stronger EURO members actually turning sooner and more to the Northeast then most other (weaker) members. There's a link above, if you'd like to take a look (I simply did not re-post the same large graph within the forum since it had just been recently presented)

Oh! I apoligize. Did not know you were referring to EPS.

[SunnyThoughts]

18z gfs running

[bella_may]

18z gfs running

Almost identical to the last run

[NDG]

GFS is coming in a couple of hours slower than previous run on landfall timing.

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS is coming in a couple of hours slower than previous run on landfall timing.

Yes, starts the turn a few hours later to the East but same result for landfall for the most part.

[NDG]

Zoomed in look at 18z GFS forecast landfall, around 5 PM CDT, just west of Panama City Beach, over Laguna Beach & Sunny Side.

[chaser1]

Not sure if this had been already mentioned here during the last few hours, but this from this afternoon's Cyclone Discussion:

"..... The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs"

[Ken711]

Zoomed in look at 18z GFS forecast landfall, around 5 PM CDT, just west of Panama City Beach, over Laguna Beach & Sunny Side.

https://i.imgur.com/s1ehulA.png

Is the 18Z GFS intensity higher or lower than previous runs?

[NDG]

Zoomed in look at 18z GFS forecast landfall, around 5 PM CDT, just west of Panama City Beach, over Laguna Beach & Sunny Side.

https://i.imgur.com/s1ehulA.png

Is the 18Z GFS intensity higher or lower than previous runs?

About the same, maybe a little higher than the previous run.

[bella_may]

New HMON trended a little west, into Miramar beach