ATL: MICHAEL - Models
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Not liking the trend today. I guess the ridging is starting to look stronger than previously
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
turned more NE then ENE; looks like direct hit on Panama Beach on this run. So, ultimately the EURO did in fact trend west by 30-40 miles?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Here's the Euro 12Z landfall location
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
chaser1 wrote:turned more NE then ENE; looks like direct hit on Panama Beach on this run. So, ultimately the EURO did in fact trend west by 30-40 miles?
More like 100 miles due to faster motion.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
HMON and prior HWRF track right in line with latest EURO now. Also looking like most models have found a more realistic intensity "happy place" lol (well, other then the NAM that is)
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Is Tropical Tidbits lower resolution? I was about to post that the intensity looks lower on this run, but I think that's the strongest landfall intensity so far.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
LarryWx wrote:chaser1 wrote:turned more NE then ENE; looks like direct hit on Panama Beach on this run. So, ultimately the EURO did in fact trend west by 30-40 miles?
More like 100 miles due to faster motion.
I guess "faster" is indeed "wester" (yeah, not really a word). So now, it'll be interesting to watch and see if future model runs become consistent on timing, or begin to trend slower/faster. What'll be especially interesting is seeing if Michael makes or remains south of near term NHC forecast points as well.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
ronjon wrote:Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.
That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Hammy wrote:
Is Tropical Tidbits lower resolution? I was about to post that the intensity looks lower on this run, but I think that's the strongest landfall intensity so far.
Yea, it's lower. TT has the high rez GFS available on the Atlantic and Western Atlantic plots, but only for the GFS and FV3.
Remember the Euro has NO skill at intensity as defined by the NHC. It's amazing since the track is usually the most accurate.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
The trends towards more developed areas is not good, a lot more damage, if the latest models are correct.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
toad strangler wrote:ronjon wrote:Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.
That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro
You sure you're not looking at the 00z?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
ronjon wrote:toad strangler wrote:ronjon wrote:Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.
That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro
You sure you're not looking at the 00z?
Nope. 12z
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
ronjon wrote:toad strangler wrote:ronjon wrote:Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.
That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro
You sure you're not looking at the 00z?
The 12z run has landfall near Destin, then 24HRS later between Macon/Valdosta.
I'd say that could be characterized as a definite right hook.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Yes, indeed the Euro moved west and faster which is better for the west coast of Fl. On the other hand it seems to exit right on top of us in 96 at 983 mb which is worse for us.
I guess it truly is the perspective that you personally look at it from.
I guess it truly is the perspective that you personally look at it from.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
jdjaguar wrote:ronjon wrote:toad strangler wrote:
That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro
You sure you're not looking at the 00z?
The 12z run has landfall near Destin, then 24HRS later between Macon/Valdosta.
I'd say that could be characterized as a definite right hook.
Timing always so critical when you see sharp turns like that. Kind of like with Irma .... everybody waiting for the turn. Every mile so critical for those down stream.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models
Well folks, this Euro run has initiated final storm prep for us in Fort Walton Beach. Depsite us being on the west side of the circ, that euro landfall would give us some serious winds. Looks like Euro and GFS both agreed on a stronger ridge and a slower/weaker front.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm
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