ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[jdjaguar]

Hard NE turn 72H

Valdosta

[storm4u]

Gfs and Euro almost exact at 72 maybe 25 mile difference

[bella_may]

Not liking the trend today. I guess the ridging is starting to look stronger than previously

[chaser1]

turned more NE then ENE; looks like direct hit on Panama Beach on this run. So, ultimately the EURO did in fact trend west by 30-40 miles?

[ColdMiser123]

[tolakram]

Here's the Euro 12Z landfall location

[LarryWx]

turned more NE then ENE; looks like direct hit on Panama Beach on this run. So, ultimately the EURO did in fact trend west by 30-40 miles?

More like 100 miles due to faster motion.

[chaser1]

HMON and prior HWRF track right in line with latest EURO now. Also looking like most models have found a more realistic intensity "happy place" lol (well, other then the NAM that is)

[Hammy]

Here's the Euro 12Z landfall location

https://i.imgur.com/4hltHte.png

Is Tropical Tidbits lower resolution? I was about to post that the intensity looks lower on this run, but I think that's the strongest landfall intensity so far.

[chaser1]

turned more NE then ENE; looks like direct hit on Panama Beach on this run. So, ultimately the EURO did in fact trend west by 30-40 miles?

More like 100 miles due to faster motion.

I guess "faster" is indeed "wester" (yeah, not really a word). So now, it'll be interesting to watch and see if future model runs become consistent on timing, or begin to trend slower/faster. What'll be especially interesting is seeing if Michael makes or remains south of near term NHC forecast points as well.

[ronjon]

Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.

[toad strangler]

Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.

That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro

[tolakram]

Here's the Euro 12Z landfall location

https://i.imgur.com/4hltHte.png

Is Tropical Tidbits lower resolution? I was about to post that the intensity looks lower on this run, but I think that's the strongest landfall intensity so far.

Yea, it's lower. TT has the high rez GFS available on the Atlantic and Western Atlantic plots, but only for the GFS and FV3.

Remember the Euro has NO skill at intensity as defined by the NHC. It's amazing since the track is usually the most accurate.

[NDG]

The trends towards more developed areas is not good, a lot more damage, if the latest models are correct.

[ronjon]

Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.

That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro

You sure you're not looking at the 00z?

[toad strangler]

Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.

That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro

You sure you're not looking at the 00z?

Nope. 12z

[jdjaguar]

Looking much better for the west coast of Florida now with UKMET, Euro, and GFS now into the western Panhandle. I'd expect a shift west on the NHC track for the next update.

That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro

You sure you're not looking at the 00z?

The 12z run has landfall near Destin, then 24HRS later between Macon/Valdosta.

I'd say that could be characterized as a definite right hook.

[OuterBanker]

Yes, indeed the Euro moved west and faster which is better for the west coast of Fl. On the other hand it seems to exit right on top of us in 96 at 983 mb which is worse for us.
I guess it truly is the perspective that you personally look at it from.

[toad strangler]

That's quite the right hook before landfall on 12z Euro

You sure you're not looking at the 00z?

The 12z run has landfall near Destin, then 24HRS later between Macon/Valdosta.

I'd say that could be characterized as a definite right hook.

Timing always so critical when you see sharp turns like that. Kind of like with Irma .... everybody waiting for the turn. Every mile so critical for those down stream.

[FLpanhandle91]

Well folks, this Euro run has initiated final storm prep for us in Fort Walton Beach. Depsite us being on the west side of the circ, that euro landfall would give us some serious winds. Looks like Euro and GFS both agreed on a stronger ridge and a slower/weaker front.