ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Is not too often that the GFS is more aggressive on intensity than the SHIPS models over the Atlantic Basin, but the trend is upward with the rest of the models.

https://i.imgur.com/UWTieVC.png

Add the UKMET 12z run to that up swing.

[TheStormExpert]

This will either be a BIG win or bust for the GFS, UKMET, and a few others. It’s October so it’s hard picturing that there would be little to no shear across the Gulf next week.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS vs UKMET. UKMET is 2 MB weaker, 10 hrs slower and not many more miles different than GFS

[Ken711]

GFS vs UKMET. UKMET is 2 MB weaker, 10 hrs slower and not many more miles different than GFS

https://media.giphy.com/media/1gdqG93w9c6eXqjgKs/giphy.gif

Pretty similar runs.

[stormlover2013]

GFS vs UKMET. UKMET is 2 MB weaker, 10 hrs slower and not many more miles different than GFS

https://media.giphy.com/media/1gdqG93w9c6eXqjgKs/giphy.gif

We don’t even have a name storm yet, don’t even have a center yet so no big win for anyone of them they all have been going back and forth

[NWFL56]

12z UKMET

https://imageshack.com/a/img924/267/PoAEy1.jpg

https://imageshack.com/a/img922/9069/3I3pXE.jpg

Ugh.... That would be making landfall about 10 miles to my West. Have to prep the RV come Monday for a road trip if this keeps looking like this.

Me too! Ugh. No RV though.

[NDG]

Wow, big shift to the right by the GFS, good thing that it is right biased as much as the Euro has been left biased.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS shifts east targeting big bend area




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[Ivanhater]

Cmc shifted west..central Louisiana

[WeatherEmperor]

0z UKMET also shifted east to the big bend area. Perhaps the GFS is on to something?




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[Evil Jeremy]

The forecasting synopses are different, but the forecast track debate here looks to be near identical with Alberto just a couple months back. Another system forming off the coast of the Yucatan, shouldn't get very strong, and the models are spread from the Panhandle through Louisiana. Alberto('s track) kept shifting Eastward as it entered the SGOM.

[Ivanhater]

FV3 Gfs ..Florida/Alabama line

[N2FSU]

0z GFS

[MississippiWx]

Quite the spread in the models. Really need a dominant area of low pressure to consolidate first to help tighten the spread.

Anyway, I happen to believe the CMC is out to lunch. That track doesn't make sense with climo and the approaching cold front. Also, this is likely to be a sheared storm that is heavily weighted to the east. That kind of system is notorious for winding up further east than anticipated. Mississippi/LA should watch, of course, but I'd be highly surprised if future Michael winds up further west than Pensacola.

[blp]

0z UKMET also shifted east to the big bend area. Perhaps the GFS is on to something?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181006/1715e6a4fba6a5e125d91ac809ff0232.gif


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Perhaps. Well that is a big shift. Ukmet being a left bias model makes a strong statement. Also, ramps this up to 996 in 72hrs then weakens it before strengthening again before landfall.

[blp]

Another look at the Ukmet. Wow coming in strong.

[bamajammer4eva]

Navgem is Mobile/Pensacola area

Edit 18z was Panama City area so a decent shift West there...

[Stormcenter]

What approaching cold front?

Quite the spread in the models. Really need a dominant area of low pressure to consolidate first to help tighten the spread.

Anyway, I happen to believe the CMC is out to lunch. That track doesn't make sense with climo and the approaching cold front. Also, this is likely to be a sheared storm that is heavily weighted to the east. That kind of system is notorious for winding up further east than anticipated. Mississippi/LA should watch, of course, but I'd be highly surprised if future Michael winds up further west than Pensacola.

[djones65]

In my opinion what I see from the models thus far.... Is that there will be a shortwave trof approaching through the mid West but is not deep enough to fully pick up 91L... Therefore... it will turn north maybe north northeast... but the trof will escape and ridging will incur and the track will bend back to northwest or west northwest. However, I completely agree with Wxman, that it will be sheared... and any strengthening will occur when it bends back to the northwest. Just my two cents.

[MississippiWx]

What approaching cold front?

Quite the spread in the models. Really need a dominant area of low pressure to consolidate first to help tighten the spread.

Anyway, I happen to believe the CMC is out to lunch. That track doesn't make sense with climo and the approaching cold front. Also, this is likely to be a sheared storm that is heavily weighted to the east. That kind of system is notorious for winding up further east than anticipated. Mississippi/LA should watch, of course, but I'd be highly surprised if future Michael winds up further west than Pensacola.

The one all of the models are showing.