ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[chaser1]

And, the EURO is "on the clock"

[chaser1]

For now, i'm mostly curious to see this latest run out to 96 hr's. I personally believe it'll be a tad slower and trending with a more eastward track solution.

[Aric Dunn]

For now, i'm mostly curious to see this latest run out to 96 hr's. I personally believe it'll be a tad slower and trending with a more eastward track solution.

im not even looking past 48 hours.. no need right now.

[chaser1]

For now, i'm mostly curious to see this latest run out to 96 hr's. I personally believe it'll be a tad slower and trending with a more eastward track solution.

im not even looking past 48 hours.. no need right now.

Well, there ya go Aric - there's your 48 hr. forecast. I'm not seeing much change in terms of location (maybe a hair to the east); only significant thing I see looking at the 48 hr. forecast is the 500mb vorticity seems stronger and larger as compared to the previous run.

[chaser1]

72 hr EURO showing distinctly stronger 998 mb (7 mb deeper) and nudged about a degree to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

For now, i'm mostly curious to see this latest run out to 96 hr's. I personally believe it'll be a tad slower and trending with a more eastward track solution.

im not even looking past 48 hours.. no need right now.

Well, there ya go Aric - there's your 48 hr. forecast. I'm not seeing much change in terms of location (maybe a hair to the east); only significant thing I see looking at the 48 hr. forecast is the 500mb vorticity seems stronger and larger as compared to the previous run.

it is the subtle difference in the placement and downstream environment. I could care less about the actual position of the system. It's position will be determined by the placement and strength of that narrow trough. it starts the north turn. everyone is overlooking the actual mechanisms and just watching the track.

the trend is weaker narrow trough. very important.

[Ivanhater]

Euro looks slightly west

[Aric Dunn]

Euro narrow trough weaker. and the downstream long wave trough is weaker and does not dig nearly as much.

Euro west. all other models east..

very relevant reason.

[chaser1]

South of Mobile at 120 hr but likely to make it's slight hook to the N.E. I'm guessing. Probably land-falling darn close to Pensacola such as the prior run indicated.

[Ivanhater]

Euro narrow trough weaker. and the downstream long wave trough is weaker and does not dig nearly as much.

Euro west. all other models east..

very relevant reason.

Euro..cmc..nav..fv gfs all west

[Aric Dunn]

Euro narrow trough weaker. and the downstream long wave trough is weaker and does not dig nearly as much.

Euro west. all other models east..

very relevant reason.

Euro..cmc..nav..fv gfs all west

I guess I should have said all relevant models lol

likely see more west shifts..

[Ivanhater]

Euro narrow trough weaker. and the downstream long wave trough is weaker and does not dig nearly as much.

Euro west. all other models east..

very relevant reason.

Euro..cmc..nav..fv gfs all west

I guess I should have said all relevant models lol

likely see more west shifts..

SE ridge is strong...all models show a funny center relocation around the pass and maybe after

[chaser1]

Are we looking at the same map lol? Pensacola hasn't moved and the storm tracks directly over it - again. I see no westward shift here.

[PTrackerLA]

Landfall intensity is 983mb on 00z Euro, intensifies rapidly just before landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Are we looking at the same map lol? Pensacola hasn't moved and the storm tracks directly over it - again. I see no westward shift here.

lol early track is what I am talking about. also again surrounding environment has changed this run. euro is 12 hours faster this run.

so many subtle changes. we have a long way to go..

[Ivanhater]

Are we looking at the same map lol? Pensacola hasn't moved and the storm tracks directly over it - again. I see no westward shift here.

12z euro was around Destin..think this run shows Pensacola..same area but need detailed map to confirm

[chaser1]

Same with the GFS and FV3-GFS , 18Z to 0Z runs shifted east, not west. CMC?? Okay, i'll give you a slight shift to the west there

[Ivanhater]

Euro now strengthens up to landfall

[Aric Dunn]

Same with the GFS and FV3-GFS , 18Z to 0Z runs shifted east, not west. CMC?? Okay, i'll give you a slight shift to the west there

the entire syntopic setup is shifted. the euro is 12 hours faster ! that is not the same it does not matter where it crosses the coast the reasoning is far more important right now. now its doing a loop sooner..

[Ivanhater]

Anyone have up close landfall of euro?