ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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bella_may
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#601 Postby bella_may » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:13 pm

18Z HWRF is into Ft Walton beach as a 942 MB storm
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#602 Postby Kaseyweber » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:44 pm

Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#603 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:47 pm

Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


Very difficult to predict those types of things.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#604 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:49 pm

Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


It wouldn't be much of a surprise then, would it?

The Gulfstream IV data should be in the 0z runs tonight, that hopefully will help.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#605 Postby caneman » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:56 pm

Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


I doubt much. Inside of 72 hours now. Think error rate still 100 miles or even less. So, Pensacola to maybe Tallahassee. I'd be shocked of anything outside of that.
Last edited by caneman on Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#606 Postby MidnightRain » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:58 pm

Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.

Not likely. Models have tightened up today, GFS and Euro are in more agreement and almost haven't budged on a Destin/PCB landfall. It could be 50 miles east or west of that depending on a early/late turn to the NE, but that's the biggest "surprise" I can see in the track if it were to occur.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#607 Postby pcolaman » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:18 pm

MidnightRain wrote:
Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.

Not likely. Models have tightened up today, GFS and Euro are in more agreement and almost haven't budged on a Destin/PCB landfall. It could be 50 miles east or west of that depending on a early/late turn to the NE, but that's the biggest "surprise" I can see in the track if it were to occur.


gonna be bad because of the approach to the coast.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#608 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:29 pm

Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


My guess forward speed will be biggest determining factor on E or W of current track... Little faster than predicted might go a bit W and a little slower might go a bit East...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#609 Postby caneman » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:37 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


My guess forward speed will be biggest determining factor on E or W of current track... Little faster than predicted might go a bit W and a little slower might go a bit East...


Speed moved to 12 mph now. I think it's set in stone now. Unless someone knows of a slowdown that is supposed to occur.
Last edited by caneman on Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#610 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:39 pm

MidnightRain wrote:
Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.

Not likely. Models have tightened up today, GFS and Euro are in more agreement and almost haven't budged on a Destin/PCB landfall. It could be 50 miles east or west of that depending on a early/late turn to the NE, but that's the biggest "surprise" I can see in the track if it were to occur.


I think a slightly surprising hiccup is always conceivable. Such as, unanticipated weakening or strengthening, an unexpected slow down, or simply course adjustments where the LLC need "jump" to the N.E. to keep up with an MLC. What I don't expect is for tonight's models to suddenly flash any new surprise wrinkles. I just don't seem to recall any recent circumstances where the Gulfstream gathered wider sweeps of data used for model assimilation, (along with added weather balloons, etc) where subsequent model runs suddenly suggested potentially new or surprising outcomes.
By and large I believe NHC is increasingly confident with track forecast. I doubt the primary 6 hourly Discussion Updates from hear on out will result in more then very minor track adjustments. Any new wrinkle will therefore be a "deer in the headlight" circumstance where unexpected forward speed or change of intensity suddenly poses a quick forecast tweak. So for now we watch, and wait.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#611 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:44 pm

caneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


My guess forward speed will be biggest determining factor on E or W of current track... Little faster than predicted might go a bit W and a little slower might go a bit East...


Speed move to 12 mph now. I think it's set in stone now. Unless someone knows of a slowdown that is supposed to occur.


If it goes as forecasted then current track should verify, but as recent as Flo where it was supposed to be slam dunk track, we know how that turned out.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#612 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:49 pm

There are always possible eyewall replacement cycles just before landfall.
This time of year if there is any shear at all it can bring dry air in and drop a systems intensity a couple categories in just a few hours.
Rare but possible.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#613 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:17 pm

Nimbus wrote:There are always possible eyewall replacement cycles just before landfall.
This time of year if there is any shear at all it can bring dry air in and drop a systems intensity a couple categories in just a few hours.
Rare but possible.
Yep...systems tend to weaken on approach to this area, prepare for a 3 or 4 and hope it weakens,4 will take off roofs easily
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#614 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:26 pm

Kaseyweber wrote:Based on the track now, does anyone think there is going to be any last minute surprises? Stalling, more of a right hook, head more west? I know it all depends on that front coming down. Just wanting more opinions.


It's moving a bit faster than forecast, LF spot could be about 20-30 further west than forecast.

Based on its current speed plus the likelihood that it will speed up more, it'll likely make landfall between 5-7am Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#615 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:15 pm

00z 3km NAM is 7mb stronger and a bit further east than the 18z through hour 19. It is the NAM though, so take it as you will...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#616 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:33 pm

Nimbus wrote:There are always possible eyewall replacement cycles just before landfall.
This time of year if there is any shear at all it can bring dry air in and drop a systems intensity a couple categories in just a few hours.

That might already be happening, on the latest sat IR loop it looks like convection is shrinking significantly, particularly on the west side, and it looks like a big band of dry air is wrapping into the system from the south.

The shear is supposed to be relaxing soon though.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#617 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:41 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:
Nimbus wrote:There are always possible eyewall replacement cycles just before landfall.
This time of year if there is any shear at all it can bring dry air in and drop a systems intensity a couple categories in just a few hours.

That might already be happening, on the latest sat IR loop it looks like convection is shrinking significantly, particularly on the west side, and it looks like a big band of dry air is wrapping into the system from the south.

The shear is supposed to be relaxing soon though.

This belongs more in the discussion thread, but the reduction in size isn't a dry air intrusion. In fact, its likely quite the opposite. Inner core convection is the most intense it has been and wraps further around the center than any time in the past. The shrinking of the envelope is likely a result of Michael consolidating an inner core.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#618 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:13 pm

Good evening folks.

Due to the high volume and sensitivity of the situation just a reminder as models start to trickle in for the 0z suite to stay on topic.

Preferences of posting in this thread

-Include image of model run/frame if possible

-Questions concerning the particular run/image

-Answer to a question concerning the run/image

-Delete -img- tags when you quote to eliminate large duplicate images.


If in doubt keep it in the general discussions thread. THANKS!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#619 Postby storm4u » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:38 pm

GFS down to 949mb at hour 39
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#620 Postby storm4u » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:40 pm

943mb hour 45 about to make landfall
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