BOB: TITLI - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#21 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:31 am

Here's TITLI's landfall radar animation.

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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#22 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:36 am

Well that's quite the impressive Core on this one as well! Probably the 2nd major landfalling of the day.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#23 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:36 am

Max SATCON estimates were 100-105kts.
2018 IO 06 283.958 2018OCT10 230000 18.98 -85.01 2 961 96
2018 IO 06 283.969 2018OCT10 231500 19.00 -85.00 2 960 105
2018 IO 06 283.990 2018OCT10 234500 19.04 -84.98 2 960 101
2018 IO 06 284.021 2018OCT11 003000 19.10 -84.94 2 960 101
2018 IO 06 284.042 2018OCT11 010000 19.14 -84.92 2 960 101
2018 IO 06 284.052 2018OCT11 011500 19.16 -84.91 2 960 101
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#24 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:37 am

06B TITLI 181011 0600 19.2N 83.6E IO 80 963

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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#25 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:48 am

Amazing. Another storm that got less attention because the U.S got hit at the same time...Now we feel bad for them... :roll:
Last edited by euro6208 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:52 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:51 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Making landfall, or has made landfall, over northern Andhra Pradesh, very close to the border with Odisha.
The microwave and radar presentation dramatically improved as it neared the coast. The JTWC intensity estimate @ 18Z is 95kts, but this was likely stronger at landfall.



It's sickening to see this. Dvorak vs recon...
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#27 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:11 am

Euro. If you paid attention the dvorak overestimated Michael for most of his life which going back to most or your arguments on a lot of the WPAC pages would prove that sometimes having a Dvorak number and low winds is actually true as we see a lot of times we see high dvorak and low numbers and you call for recon because you don't believe the numbers. Recon proved this right with Michael as it had high numbers but low winds.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:15 am

StormingB81 wrote:Euro. If you paid attention the dvorak overestimated Michael for most of his life which going back to most or your arguments on a lot of the WPAC pages would prove that sometimes having a Dvorak number and low winds is actually true as we see a lot of times we see high dvorak and low numbers and you call for recon because you don't believe the numbers. Recon proved this right with Michael as it had high numbers but low winds.


I believe ADT and dvorak are different from the Western Hemisphere and Eastern. Look it up. West of the dateline it is much weaker for similiar storms east of the dateline. Proven.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#29 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:41 am

I've been in Japan through typhoons that had a certain strength of winds but when it hit us head in winds were a lot weaker then what was shown or forecasted. Recon has proved that numbers dont always equal winds. You're beating a dead horse trying to prove a point that isnt true. Recon would more than likely prove the point against your argument. Everytime I try to look at the board for the WPAC storms it never fails that you're wanting recon or this storm is bigger and better than that one or that one storm gets more attention. I mean regardless of fact a storm in the Atlantic will always have more attention that a WPAC storm for the sole fact most of us live in the CONUS and would have are attention more on a storm here than over there. Lile I said recon proved in this storm that numbers don't always equal winds which goes against the argument you are trying to make.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#30 Postby NotoSans » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:05 pm

euro6208 wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Euro. If you paid attention the dvorak overestimated Michael for most of his life which going back to most or your arguments on a lot of the WPAC pages would prove that sometimes having a Dvorak number and low winds is actually true as we see a lot of times we see high dvorak and low numbers and you call for recon because you don't believe the numbers. Recon proved this right with Michael as it had high numbers but low winds.


I believe ADT and dvorak are different from the Western Hemisphere and Eastern. Look it up. West of the dateline it is much weaker for similiar storms east of the dateline. Proven.


ADT indeed uses different algorithms for different basins, but subjective Dvorak estimates DO NOT. The ADT algorithm is radically different from the original version of Dvorak, e.g. it incorporates microwave data, uses different FT rules and constraints. I guess it is important to at least have a better understanding on different intensity estimation techniques before a meaning conclusion can be drawn.

Below is a list of subjective Dvorak estimates for Michael from KNES, and the best track intensities are in brackets:
08/12Z T3.5/3.5 (65KT)
08/18Z T4.5/4.5 (70KT)
09/00Z T4.5/4.5 (75KT)
09/06Z T4.5/4.5 (80KT)
09/12Z T5.5/5.5 (90KT)
09/18Z T6.0/6.0 (105KT)
10/00Z T6.0/6.0 (110KT)
10/06Z T6.5/6.5 (115KT)
10/12Z T6.0/6.5 (125KT)

Michael's actual intensities were generally lower than what subjective Dvorak estimates indicated, and the ADT values were higher. A very good counterexample to your argument.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#31 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:12 pm

Euro, I would like you to say that in front of the people that got slammed by Michael.

Not. The. Time. For. That.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

#32 Postby bob rulz » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:19 am

At least 8 deaths reported for this. 300,000 were evacuated.

Barely any news coverage at all. Found it on an Indian news site.
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Re: BOB: TITLI - Deep Depression

#33 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:42 am

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