ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:06 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...STORM FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:56 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...STORM FLOODING GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf coast of Florida has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west
of Panama City and southeast of Keaton Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.1 North,
longitude 83.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near
20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue tonight. A
motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on
Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia overnight,
and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will
then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a
tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to
re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the
east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone
on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over
south-central Georgia tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts into Friday...

Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.

Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the hurricane
moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible tonight and Thursday
morning from Georgia into the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday
morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael
has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it
moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85
kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the
eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the
low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely
making it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due
to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the
trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the
cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below
tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the
Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and
Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is
expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low
pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to
accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper
mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal
system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn
east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the
north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered
about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were
made.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,
where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:56 am

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern
Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased
to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to
the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for
the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina
and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start
to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become
a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and
it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical
phase.

The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward
the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near
the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the
previous forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 33.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:51 am

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of
Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will
be moving into central North Carolina shortly. Sustained winds near
the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports
of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South
Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm. It is assumed
that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest
winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern
portions of South Carolina this morning. As Michael's circulation
emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is
expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward
along the coasts of South and North Carolina. Late tonight, Michael
will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global
models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen
after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The post-tropical
portion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.
Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-
northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic
during the next couple of days. There has been little change to
the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the
previous advisory.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of
South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with
sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the
Carolinas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 34.7N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0000Z 36.6N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 39.3N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0000Z 42.8N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1200Z 45.5N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 48.2N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z 49.0N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Satellite and radar data show that Michael's rain shield is
beginning to expand northward and northwestward, and that cooler and
drier air is starting to wrap around the western portion of the
circulation. These trends indicate that Michael's transition to an
extratropical low has started. There have been recent observations
of 40 to nearly 45 kt sustained winds along the southeastern coast
of North Carolina, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Little
change in strength is expected through this evening, but Michael is
forecast to quickly intensify after it completes extratropical
transition and exits the east coast of the United States tonight.
The official intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to
50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation
over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a
result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this
area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across
portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this
evening and tonight.

Michael is moving northeastward or 050/21 kt. The storm will
continue to accelerate as it become further embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone will race
across the north Atlantic during the next few days, before slowing
down late in the period before it weakens and dissipates. The
track guidance continues to be in good agreement and little change
was required from the previous NHC track forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of
North Carolina and southern Virginia and will continue through the
evening.

2. Damaging winds are spreading eastward across portions of central
and eastern North Carolina, and will continue through this evening.
These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage.
Strong winds are also expected over portions of southeastern
Virginia and the Virginia Eastern Shore tonight as Michael becomes
post-tropical.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible tonight along the sound side of
the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 36.1N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0600Z 38.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1800Z 41.2N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 47.0N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z 48.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1800Z 46.5N 7.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:05 pm

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Michael has just about lost its tropical characteristics. The
low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it
becomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becoming
ill defined. The center we have been tracking across North
Carolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia,
although it should be noted that a second low center, one with even
lower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore of
Chesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection. Needless to say,
Michael has just about become post-tropical, and that
transformation should be complete overnight. The estimated maximum
winds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal North
Carolina. Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification of
the post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours,
following guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. The
post-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days and
will likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west of
Europe by day 4.

The initial motion based on the continuity-following low center is
northeastward, or 055/22 kt. Michael is embedded within the
mid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate toward
the east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during the
next couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48
hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and no
significant changes to the official track forecast were required.
Michael's center is expected to move off the coast of Virginia
within the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- and
gale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day on
Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of
the southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight.

2. Strong, possibly damaging winds are expected over portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the
southern Delmarva peninsula overnight. These winds have the
potential to cause tree and structural damage, plus power outages.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible overnight along the sound side
of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 37.1N 76.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 39.2N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1200Z 45.4N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0000Z 47.1N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0000Z 47.6N 14.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:48 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly
toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near
the end of the cyclone's life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from
eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,
flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell
very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over
portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and
the Delmarva Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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