ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1881
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#21 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:22 pm

I would like to remind readers that this invest is near Cabo Verde, not the extratropical storm near the Canary Islands, which was invest 92L.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3769
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#22 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:53 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:I wish a press release had been put forth when the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone was so dramatically changed, because this is getting confusing



Seems to change with each new director. I've been watching this happen for decades.

This year the nhc is upgrading subtropical systems very fast and expecting slightly more from purely tropical systems compared to last year. A lot of these 30 north subtropical systems in pass seasons either wouldn't have been upgraded or the nhc would have waited for them to become tropical.


They've always seemed to lag about 12-24 hours with eastern Atlantic systems--some storms have even had two days added to the beginning of the track.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
Abdullah
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Broward County, FL, Earth

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#23 Postby Abdullah » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:36 pm

Could this be a long-tracker? Or just another Kirk
0 likes   
Pakistani-American gone through
Irene '11 Matthew '16 Irma '17
Total Amateur
Don't take any posts too seriously that you see on top of this gray text.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3769
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#24 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:07 pm

Abdullah wrote:Could this be a long-tracker? Or just another Kirk


Looks like it'll be relatively short-lived and the GFS shows it'll get pulled north by Leslie.

Also somebody asked (I can't find where) if we've had three systems in October before, and I've found only three instances going back to 1960:

1990: Josephine, Klaus, and the subtropical portion of Lili (not operationally though) were active from 06-12z on Oct 6
1995: Noel, Opal, and Pablo were active from 00-18z on Oct 5 until Opal became extratropical, though Opal was a depression during the last six, and Pablo was TD18 while Opal was a storm.
2000: Isaac, Joyce, and Keith were active on Oct 1 from 0-18z when Isaac became extratropical.

So it doesn't look like it's even occurred for a full 24 hour period, which is entirely possible this year.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2722
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#25 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:11 pm

Abdullah wrote:Could this be a long-tracker? Or just another Kirk


Models either have it merge with Leslie to the north, or for upper level shear to weaken this new system later in the week as it continues to the west or WNW. Interestingly, you can follow the wave on a couple of the models nearly as far west as the southern Bahamas. It may be something that surprises folks, but NHC is treating it more like a flash in the pan.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114789
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:50 pm

70%/80%

Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within a day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward. By late this week, strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114789
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:36 pm

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT23 KNES 090030
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 09/0000Z

C. 9.5N

D. 28.5W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...0.25 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS
1.0 AND THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCLEAR BANDING
FEATURES RESULTING FROM RECENT BLOWUPS OF CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5082
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#28 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:50 pm

Looks to be Nadine.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2849
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#29 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:26 am

80/90

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 500 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, satellite wind data
indicate that the circulation of the system is still elongated.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
today or on Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward. By late this week, strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2722
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#30 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:30 am

Hammy wrote:
Abdullah wrote:Could this be a long-tracker? Or just another Kirk


Looks like it'll be relatively short-lived and the GFS shows it'll get pulled north by Leslie.

Also somebody asked (I can't find where) if we've had three systems in October before, and I've found only three instances going back to 1960:

1990: Josephine, Klaus, and the subtropical portion of Lili (not operationally though) were active from 06-12z on Oct 6
1995: Noel, Opal, and Pablo were active from 00-18z on Oct 5 until Opal became extratropical, though Opal was a depression during the last six, and Pablo was TD18 while Opal was a storm.
2000: Isaac, Joyce, and Keith were active on Oct 1 from 0-18z when Isaac became extratropical.

So it doesn't look like it's even occurred for a full 24 hour period, which is entirely possible this year.


Hey Hammy, that was me who posed that question (but I think I posted it a few hours ago over in the Michael - Discussion thread. Anyway, nice research and i'll have to check out 2000. 1995 had already been disqualified because not all three were actually named Tropical Storms on any one given day.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114789
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:09 am

We have TD 15.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 29.7W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6432
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#32 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:30 am

The way things have been for much of the summer and now going into October, Who knows?. Our strange anomolous +NAO just keeps persisting. It refuses to relinquish .

Heck, I am tempted to say because of the pesky +NAO, TD 15 stands a chance to be a long runner and potentially be around to pose a threat on this side of the Atlantic in 10 days or so. Time will tell.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018-2019 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2722
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#33 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:29 am

northjaxpro wrote:The way things have been for much of the summer and now going into October, Who knows?. Our strange anomolous +NAO just keeps persisting. It refuses to relinquish .

Heck, I am tempted to say because of the pesky +NAO, TD 15 stands a chance to be a long runner and potentially be around to pose a threat on this side of the Atlantic in 10 days or so. Time will tell.


Given the large-scale ridging that at least appears persistant over the lower latitudes and firmly in place over the Southeast Conus, I think that possibility cannot be discounted. Even if TD 15 (soon to be Nadine) opens up to a wave, eyes need to remain on it for potential reformation as it approaches 60W - 70 W in about a week.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6432
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#34 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:36 am

:uarrow: Yeah I agree chaser. The +NAO is behaving like the Eveready Battery Energizer Bunny. It just keeps on going and going.....
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018-2019 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10067
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#35 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:47 am

Yet another CV system in a year that had such a "cool" MDR during the summer.
Whoever still thinks we are not in the Active Era any more should have changed their mind by now, especially after the last couple of years.
BTW, the Atlantic broke the 100 ACE mark last night.
5 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114789
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: 12z Best Track upgrades to TS Nadine

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:54 am

Upgrade to TS Nadine at 11 AM.

AL, 15, 2018100912, , BEST, 0, 103N, 297W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31071
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: 12z Best Track upgrades to TS Nadine

#37 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:03 am

This is another Beryl and Isaac, fairly short lived but may become stronger than expected before it gets slammed.

Should absolutely guarantee an official above average season.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6432
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion: 12z Best Track upgrades to TS Nadine

#38 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:07 am

Yeah, we have Nadine!
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018-2019 Meteorological Winter Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:36 am

NDG wrote:Yet another CV system in a year that had such a "cool" MDR during the summer.
Whoever still thinks we are not in the Active Era any more should have changed their mind by now, especially after the last couple of years.
BTW, the Atlantic broke the 100 ACE mark last night.


2015 should have changed their minds! :P That season probably should have been a lot slower.

After being fooled with Kirk, I'm waiting until it's on the NHC site before calling this Nadine.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114789
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NADINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:39 am

Is oficial.

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NADINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 30.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest