EPAC: TARA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:An ASCAT pass a few hours ago indicated a poorly-defined LLC and no TS winds. Models predict dissipation in the next 24-48 hrs, which seems reasonable.

Image
ASCAT shows several 40-knot wind barbs.
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.



Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

A high-resolution GCOM microwave pass from 2030 UTC revealed that
Tara remains a tiny tropical cyclone, but it has also developed
tightly coiled convective bands which could not be observed in
convectional satellite imagery alone. With this improved
structure, TAFB's Dvorak estimate, the ADT estimate, and SATCON all
increased to 55 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity on
this advisory.

The GCOM pass also indicated that Tara's center has moved closer to
the coast of Mexico, albeit slowly, and the initial motion estimate
is northwestward, or 325/2 kt. Tara's future track has become less
clear, and the NHC track forecast is of very low confidence. The
most reliable global models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models)
either bring Tara inland over Mexico or have the system dissipating
just offshore during the next couple of days, and as a result, there
were very few model trackers to follow when making the forecast.
Using what little vorticity can be followed in the global model
fields, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward,
closer to the coast of Mexico. This new forecast has Tara's small
tropical-storm-force wind field grazing the coast of Colima and
Jalisco within the next 12-24 hours, and since there's also a
possibility that the center will move inland, the government of
Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Cabo
Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

Due to Tara's small size, continued intensification is possible.
However, moderate southeasterly shear is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours, and as a result, the NHC forecast holds the
intensity at 55 kt for the next day or two. After 24 hours, the
shear vector begins to turn more southerly and southwesterly, which
will likely allow drier air to entrain into the circulation. And,
that all assumes that Tara will not have moved inland by that time.
Based on these environmental factors, and the fact that the models
are now showing the circulation dissipating much sooner, the
new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast at
48 hours and beyond, showing Tara becoming a remnant low by day 4
and dissipating by day 5.

Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.1N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 18.9N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:35 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AS TARA INCHES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES




Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

An AMSU microwave overpass after the release of the previous
advisory suggests that Tara is a little less organized than before.
The image showed that the center of the small tropical cyclone was
located near the southeastern portion of a curved convective band,
but it was not as tightly coiled as before. Conventional satellite
imagery has also revealed an overall decrease in the area of deep
convection and size of the cold clouds tops overnight. Based on
these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt, which is
a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications.

The track and intensity forecasts remain quite challenging this
morning. It appears that southeasterly shear and the interaction of
the circulation with the high terrain of southwestern Mexico have
caused weakening overnight. As the system moves closer to the
coast, additional weakening is predicted, and the NHC forecast
calls for a gradual decrease in intensity over the next few days.
It is possible that Tara will weaken and dissipate much sooner than
shown below if the small tropical cyclone moves inland or is so
close to the coast that the circulation becomes disrupted by the
mountainous terrain. The latter is the scenario favored by most
of the typically reliable dynamical model guidance.

Satellite fixes indicate that Tara continues to inch closer to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, and the somewhat uncertain initial
motion estimate is north-northwest or 335 degrees at 2 kt. The
latest runs of the global models once again either bring Tara
inland over Mexico today or show it dissipating near the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the next day or so. As a
result, the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted northward and
brings the center of Tara very close to the coast within the next
12 to 24 hours. Out of respect for continuity of the previous
advisories, the new NHC forecast keeps Tara meandering near
southwestern Mexico through 72 hours, but it is possible
that the storm will weaken and dissipate much sooner. Regardless of
the exact track or intensity of Tara, heavy rainfall will continue
to be a threat along the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the
system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
possible in mountainous areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 18.7N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:43 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS WHILE MEANDERING SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A surge of moderate to strong southeasterly wind shear early this
morning decapitated Tara, with the original upper-level circulation
now displaced more than 100 nmi to the north or just east of Puerto
Vallarta. Convection waned considerably as a result of the shear and
decoupling of the low- and upper-level circulations, but
thunderstorm activity has made a little bit of comeback over the
past few hours. However, the decoupling likely resulted in
significant weakening of the tiny tropical storm, so the intensity
has been lowered to 40 kt, which is slightly higher than the 35-kt
winds noted in an earlier ScatSat scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/01 kt. Data
from a recent 1035Z SSMI/S overpass suggest that Tara hasn't moved
much, if at all, during the past 12 hours. The first few visible
satellite images also indicate this, and that Tara may just be a
small swirl embedded within a northwest-to-southeast elongated
trough. For now, the system is being maintained as a tiny tropical
cyclone that is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
aforementioned surface trough axis. Almost all of the model guidance
with the exception of the HWRF and NAVGEM models dissipate the
cyclone in 24-36 hours, so the forecast track beyond 24 hours leans
heavily on continuity with the previous advisory track, along with
some input from the HWRF model. However, it is quite possible that
Tara could dissipate sooner than indicated.

The vertical shear is forecast to weaken to less than 10 kt in 12-18
hours, but there may not be enough of a circulation remaining at
that time to take advantage of the improving environment. Intrusions
of dry mid-level air along with some interaction with the
mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico are expected to override
the favorable wind shear environment, causing Tara to weaken to a
depression within 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system by 36 hours. However, weakening could occur more
rapidly than forecast due to the recent loss of vertically
structure.

Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 18.6N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:39 am

I highly doubt Tara will break the ACE record if she keeps weakening this fast
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I'm wide awake

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Re: EPAC: TARA - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Tara Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TINY TARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Depression Tara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico,
along with some modest southeasterly wind shear and drier mid-level
air, have combined to weaken tiny Tara. The tropical cyclone still
has a tight spiral convective banding signature in recent microwave
imagery. However, the northern portion of the small circulation
is clearly interacting with the coastal mountains, and surface
observations from Manzanillo, Mexico (MMZO) since 1500Z have
indicated a veering wind from northeast to southeast at a steady 20
kt. The position and intensity were based in part on the MMZO
observations and a 1541Z ScatSat pass, but mainly on a 1630Z AMSU
microwave satellite overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 325/02 kt. Surface wind direction
data from MMZO indicate that Tara passed west of that station's
longitude around 1530Z. Visible and scatterometer satellite data
indicate that a surface/low-level trough lies northwest-to-southeast
just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the tiny
tropical cyclone is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
trough axis for the next 12-24 hours as per most of the new 12Z
global models. The HWRF hangs on to a weak low until about 48 hours
or so, with dissipation occurring quickly thereafter. The official
forecast lies between these two scenarios, keeping Tara as a remnant
low through 36 hours. However, if the small cyclone doesn't move
away from Mexico within the next 12 hours, then degeneration into a
remnant low and eventual dissipation could occur sooner than
forecast due to continued intrusions of drier mid-level air and
interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.

Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
coast of southwestern Mexico for the next day or so due to the
system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 19.0N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TARA - Remnants

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:34 pm

Remnants Of Tara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Data from several recent microwave overpasses, last-light visible
imagery, and surface observations from Mexico indicate that Tara no
longer has a well-defined surface center. The mid-level center of
the former tropical cyclone appeared to move inland earlier this
evening, though it is unclear whether the surface center made it
that far. Regardless, the high terrain of Mexico has caused the
surface circulation to open into a trough of low pressure and
dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Tara. Although the
remnant trough will likely produce intermittent convection near the
coast of Mexico tonight, continued close proximity to land should
prevent it from reorganizing into a tropical cyclone, and all of the
global models indicate that the remnants will gradual weaken over
the next 12 hours or so.

Although Tara is no longer a tropical depression, its remnants
could still cause heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA
12H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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