EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

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Ken711
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#241 Postby Ken711 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:50 pm

TorSkk wrote:
The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.


Given all the electrical monitoring equipment in addition to the plane itself, probably a wise safe move.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#242 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:51 pm

Looks like the eyewall cycle is wrapping up, but shear is definitely on the increase. Upper level clouds moving toward the center from the southwest are becoming increasingly apparent
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#243 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:43 pm

I'm not too bummed out about recon turning back (how often does everything go according to plan anyways with Epac recon?) because it was timed horribly anyways when the eye was collapsing. On the other hand if this happened for Patricia during her peak that's table flipping level stuff so better Willa than Patricia. They should do 6 hourly fixes on major hurricanes heading for land.

Yellow Evan wrote:This looks almost exactly like Rick the day before it unraveled from a Cat 5 to a TS.

Probably in for a repeat. I have a hard time picturing this making landfall as a 100+ knot hurricane, doesn't matter how powerful a hurricane is to begin with (IE Patty). Even my 85 knot landfall prediction is looking generous. Change that to 60 knots :lol: . Every frame is looking worse and the "smushing" is starting like Kenna's smush.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#244 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:57 pm

Is there a chance of this getting back into the GoM and reforming????
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#245 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:10 pm

Blinhart wrote:Is there a chance of this getting back into the GoM and reforming????


not really, but its energy will be entrained into a non-tropical low that's supposed to form in the WGOM and move across the Northern Gulf, exiting near Jacksonville and also leading to a strong Nor'easter.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#246 Postby Rail Dawg » Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:52 pm

Yeah I fly the big jets for a living now and have taken a lightning strike to the radome (radar dome).

It knocked out our weather radar and we had to divert pretty quickly as without that radar you're risking way too much in bad weather.

The recon guys are mission-focused and I'll bet hate having to turn around.

Side-note: Been hit a few times with lightning while flying but that one on the radome was the coolest. A long bright shaft of light shot out about 100 yards off our nose like a unicorn and then the lightning bolt came in and followed it right to our nose. BAM! It was loud and very bright.

Would have made a cool video lol.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#247 Postby wx98 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...POWERFUL WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 107.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected early Tuesday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias early
Tuesday and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along
the west-central coast of mainland Mexico Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is
forecast tonight and Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and
Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#248 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:24 am

How far away is this to landfall?
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#249 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:43 am

Rail Dawg wrote:Yeah I fly the big jets for a living now and have taken a lightning strike to the radome (radar dome).

It knocked out our weather radar and we had to divert pretty quickly as without that radar you're risking way too much in bad weather.

The recon guys are mission-focused and I'll bet hate having to turn around.

Side-note: Been hit a few times with lightning while flying but that one on the radome was the coolest. A long bright shaft of light shot out about 100 yards off our nose like a unicorn and then the lightning bolt came in and followed it right to our nose. BAM! It was loud and very bright.

Would have made a cool video lol.

Nice! Thanks for explaining further.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#250 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:51 am

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's overall satellite presentation has continued to slowly
degrade since the previous advisory, with the exception of a few
brief attempts at redevelopment of an inner-core ring of deep
convection. However, dry intrusions from the moat region between the
larger outer eyewall and the smaller inner core have thus far
prevented the reformation of an inner eyewall. Satellite intensity
estimates have been steadily decreasing, and the advisory intensity
is set at 115 kt, based on a average of the subjective T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and a UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate of
T6.0/115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to reconnoiter Hurricane Willa later this morning,
providing more detailed intensity information.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, but at a slower
forward speed, or 360/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the
previous track forecast or reasoning. Willa is expected to move
slowly northward this morning around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico, and then recurve
toward the north-northeast and northeast at a faster forward speed
by this afternoon ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, with
that motion continuing into this evening and Wednesday. The new NHC
track forecast is near the eastern edge of the tightly packed
guidance envelope, near the FSSE and GFS model tracks.

There has been no microwave imagery since around 0100Z to provide
information on the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However,
conventional infrared satellite imagery suggests that the ERC is
still ongoing based on the appearance of a partial moat or clear
region in the northern semicircle of the inner core. Willa is
currently moving over warmer and deeper water as indicated by
upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) values greater than 50 units. This
favorable ocean condition is expected to continue along the forecast
track for another 12 hours or so, which could help to offset the
weakening rate due to the gradual increase in the southwesterly wind
shear. By 18 h, or just before landfall, the shear is forecast to
increase to more than 20 kt and the warm water beneath the hurricane
is expected to become more shallow, a combination that could lead to
significant upwelling and weakening. However, the official intensity
forecast follows the consensus of the various intensity models,
keeping Willa's intensity near 100 kt at landfall, which is similar
to the FSSE and HCCA corrected-consensus models. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las
Islas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico
later today. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
However, deep moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to
spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected today along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#251 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:55 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#252 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:47 am

Very close to landfall

Image
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#253 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:20 am

:uarrow: The Maria Islands are going to get hit pretty bad, good thing there's not much population on them. There's actually a fairly large prison on Maria Madre on the southern tip of the Island seen on google maps.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/21%C2 ... d-106.5445

Edit: over 29K prisoners on it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islas_Mar ... ral_Prison
Last edited by NDG on Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#254 Postby Netzero9455 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:22 am

Well, so far this has been a major non-event here in Puerto Vallarta, just off and on light rain since Sunday afternoon until now. They evacuated tourists from the hotel zone to designated shelters, which is understandable just to err on the side of caution, because of the nature of the bay to amplify storm surge, but even while the hurricane is passing about a 100 miles away, there is not even a twig moving, no wind to speak of whatsoever.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#255 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:01 am

EWRC is near completion. Not much of an inner eyewall left

Image
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#256 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:58 am

Sentinel-3 captured Willa yesterday while the storm was at Category-5 strength. Although it's definitely no comparison to the incredible Sentinel-3 image of Hurricane Walaka, I still think this is worth posting since there's a nice amount of detail visible in the CDO and eyewall regions:

Image

Link to the original full resolution image (4500 x 3993 px)


Close-up with some blue ocean visible inside the eye:

Image
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#257 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:04 am

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during
the past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and
and an outer eyewall. Recent microwave data and reports from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that
concentric eyewalls are present. The reconnaissance aircraft just
completed its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane
reported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than
previously estimated. Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a
blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the
initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The plane should provide a
more accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its
mission during the new few hours.

Willa is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt. A
shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
this morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by
tonight. The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement,
and the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory.

Although Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing
southwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the
hurricane approaches the coast. Despite the forecast decrease in
the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane
through landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and
rainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central
and southwestern Mexico. After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken
over the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected
on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast
to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
and the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is
expected.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along
the coast of west- central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds will also
extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico
as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#258 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:09 am

The new eye is clearing out on satelllite. Could see some re-strengthening before landfall

Image
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#259 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:26 pm

On AVN there is a tiny pseudo-pinhole right over one of the islands amongst the large new eye forming. I need to post that when I find the host.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#260 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:40 pm

Interesting on how satellites estimates were over estimating the strength of Willa compared to what the recon found, pressure was much higher than thought.
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