EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

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cycloneye
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EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#281 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:34 pm

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed
the coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles
(80 km) southeast of Mazatlan. Willa made landfall as a Category 3
hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt. The hurricane
is already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring
of very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually
fade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the
initial intensity is set at 100 kt. Willa is forecast to move
farther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting
in rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone
will no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate.

Satellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the
northeast a little faster, about 15 kt. The hurricane is well
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern
should steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in
forward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts
of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should
continue within the hurricane warning area during the next several
hours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of
west-central Mexico.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#282 Postby Astromanía » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:23 pm

Is there a chance Willa reach Monterrey as a tropical depresion? Praying for all my people in sinaloa, stay safe!
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Hurricane

#283 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:53 am

Although awaiting calibration, Josh Morgerman recorded a pressure of 968 mb in the eye. That suggests it weakened very slightly coming up to landfall. With that data, 100 kt looks to be the actual landfall intensity.
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Tropical Depression

#284 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:48 am

Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is
located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state
of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations
to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation
shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking
high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast
position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects
where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the
cyclone will likely have dissipated by then.

Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up
to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will
still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms
occurring to the east and south of the center.

Key Messages:

1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of
southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Tropical Depression

#285 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:56 am

Wow, that was fast. Those mountains really did their job on Willa. :eek:
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

#286 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:36 am

Remnants Of Willa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa's
surface circulation has dissipated over northeastern Mexico, so
this is the final advisory.

It should be noted that a non-tropical cyclone that is forecast to
move from the Gulf of Mexico to the northeastern United States over
the next few days is a separate system, and not directly associated
with Willa's remnants.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 25.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF WILLA
12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

#287 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:46 am

Any word on damage?
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Re: EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

#288 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:50 am

Floods compilation video of the damages after Willa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ptmq49vvQRs
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