WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#521 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:53 pm

WAcyclone wrote:There are also reporting stations in Dinapigue, Dilasag, Dinalungan and many more further south and west:

https://weather.us/observations/1220-e-162-n/wind-average-10min/20181029-1500z.html


Ooh, didn't know that. Thanks.
Anyway Isabela coast near landfall site is empty.
WPF will probably install obs there next year and it will connect via satellite.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#522 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1057008508816777216



He stayed at the municipal hall, that is full of glass windows in all sides
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#523 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:02 pm

Latest MW.
Image
Interaction with the Sierra Madre is now starting to take its toll on the Western edge of the core.
Core appears to have tightened on approach - frictional convegence????
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#524 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:16 pm

Landfall!!!
Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#525 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:25 pm

As of 2100 UTC, the lowest pressure recorded at Dinapique has been 956.7 mb. The highest sustained winds at this site were 30 kt with a maximum gust of 87 kt.

https://weather.us/observations/1220-e-162-n/gusts/20181029-2000z.html
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#526 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:35 pm

This is probably a cat 3 at landfall instead of 2.
I could be wrong though.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#527 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:42 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A CLOUD-
FILLED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST EIR IMAGERY (29/1950Z) INDICATES THE
SYSTEM CENTER IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF LUZON WITH A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED WITH APARRI (98232), LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON, REPORTING NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 36 KNOTS AND TUGUEGARAO (98233), APPROXIMATELY 90NM NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER, REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP
OF 995.8MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MARGINAL OVERALL CONDITIONS,
PRIMARILY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 31W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII OVER
THE NORTHWEST (ANALYSIS) AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS (FORECAST) HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED TO INCORPORATE NORTHEAST SURGE WINDS ADJACENT TO THE
SYSTEM.
B. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
A 160NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TY YUTU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON BUT
IS FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 60, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST VALUES (26C) WILL
SERVE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING (HIGH) UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK WITH A 745NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120.
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE RECURVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE PRIMARY OUTLIER, COAMPS-TC (GFS), INDICATING
A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MODELS
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM, EITHER SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION
WHILE LOSING THE CIRCULATION OR EJECTING THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. STRONG VWS (30 TO 35 KNOTS), ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS),
MARGINAL SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, AND ENTRAINMENT OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO AND SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHERN SCS DUE TO THE VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#528 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:06 pm

Well, JTWC has already released their 00Z intensity estimate an hour before 00Z.

31W YUTU 181030 0000 17.0N 121.4E WPAC 80 963
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#529 Postby cebuboy » Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:48 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
cebuboy wrote:I'm currently in Baguio City right now. Tomorrow October 30, 2018, I'll be going back to Manila. Would you think Baguio City will have stormy bad weather on the October 30, 2018 morning? Thank you for any answer.


Rain will likely start to fall by morning then it will be stormy by afternoon - closing down of Naguillan Road and Marcos Highway is a possibility (Kennon has been closed for months already).


Thanks, just boarded a bus going to Manila from Baguio. Very bad weather and now raining. It's very cold and windy in Baguio as of this morning. The road visibility is very poor because of fogging. I hope there will be no more accidents like that of Ompong.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#530 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:33 pm

JMA's landfall pressure estimate seems about right

At 4:00 AM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) [ID No. 980997] based in LGU Dinapigue, Isabela reported wind gusts of 161 km/hr blowing from the WSW (301°) and a low barometric mean sea level pressure of 953.2 hPa (@ 4:50am).


https://weatherph.org/tropical_cyclone/2018-31w-11/
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#531 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:44 pm

Hayabusa wrote:JMA's landfall pressure estimate seems about right

At 4:00 AM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) [ID No. 980997] based in LGU Dinapigue, Isabela reported wind gusts of 161 km/hr blowing from the WSW (301°) and a low barometric mean sea level pressure of 953.2 hPa (@ 4:50am).



https://weatherph.org/tropical_cyclone/2018-31w-11/


Close, but I think it's a lil bit lower - more or less 945. The landfall appeared to have occurred north of the reporting station. We'll never know
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#532 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:03 pm

cebuboy wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:
cebuboy wrote:I'm currently in Baguio City right now. Tomorrow October 30, 2018, I'll be going back to Manila. Would you think Baguio City will have stormy bad weather on the October 30, 2018 morning? Thank you for any answer.


Rain will likely start to fall by morning then it will be stormy by afternoon - closing down of Naguillan Road and Marcos Highway is a possibility (Kennon has been closed for months already).


Thanks, just boarded a bus going to Manila from Baguio. Very bad weather and now raining. It's very cold and windy in Baguio as of this morning. The road visibility is very poor because of fogging. I hope there will be no more accidents like that of Ompong.

Seriously?! I can't believe they still allowed travel. Rains and winds have started getting stronger just now, and this will only get worse in the afternoon.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#533 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:45 pm

Sierra Madre doing its thing.
Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#534 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:00 am

Hayabusa wrote:JMA's landfall pressure estimate seems about right

At 4:00 AM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) [ID No. 980997] based in LGU Dinapigue, Isabela reported wind gusts of 161 km/hr blowing from the WSW (301°) and a low barometric mean sea level pressure of 953.2 hPa (@ 4:50am).


https://weatherph.org/tropical_cyclone/2018-31w-11/


Based on PAGASA's position and Google maps, the station is about 16 miles SW of the landfall point, some 13 miles S from the closest point of approach and about 16 miles SE from the 5:00 AM position

Josh M's location is about 42 kms from ground zero.

This is likely the strongest landfalling typhoon in that area (15 kms radius from 16.73N 122.39E) since Typhoon Nalgae (2011)
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#535 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:56 am

Center now over the SCS. Exited Luzon via La Union province.

Image
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#536 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:24 am

mrbagyo wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:JMA's landfall pressure estimate seems about right

At 4:00 AM today, the WPF Automated Weather Station (AWS) [ID No. 980997] based in LGU Dinapigue, Isabela reported wind gusts of 161 km/hr blowing from the WSW (301°) and a low barometric mean sea level pressure of 953.2 hPa (@ 4:50am).


https://weatherph.org/tropical_cyclone/2018-31w-11/


Based on PAGASA's position and Google maps, the station is about 16 miles SW of the landfall point, some 13 miles S from the closest point of approach and about 16 miles SE from the 5:00 AM position

Josh M's location is about 42 kms from ground zero.

This is likely the strongest landfalling typhoon in that area (15 kms radius from 16.73N 122.39E) since Typhoon Nalgae (2011)


I wonder why JTWC didn't take this pressure observation into their prognostic reasoning. They won't take it as face value? They need actual weather data?
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#537 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:03 am

Here's the last clean microwave image just before its Luzon landfall.


Saw this vid in fb (probably in Saipan) - The Scream of Yutu
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#538 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:45 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STILL-
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL RAINBANDS THAT HAS RE-EMERGED OVER
WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS HEDGED BETWEEN THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND THE ESTIMATE OF
T4.0 (65 KTS). UNIMPRESSIVE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SITES 40-50 NM
AWAY INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 10-25 KTS, AND PRESSURE BETWEEN 985-993
MB, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHED OVER LAND DUE TO TERRAIN
EFFECTS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON. WHILE LAND
INTERACTION HAS LED TO WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL AS WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SSTS IN THE SCS NOW THAT TY 31W IS OVER WATER ONCE MORE,
ARE SUSTAINING CONVECTION. TY 31W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT 34
KT WIND RADIUS INCLUDES NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS FLOWING INTO THE
SCS. 34 KT WIND RADII ON THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON A 300129Z ASCAT PASS.
B. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24
AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 395NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 DUE TO THE
UKMET MODEL RECURVING 31W AND ACCELERATING IT TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLIER THAN OTHER MODELS. ECMWF AND HWRF BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TY 31W
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, TOWARDS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR, WHILE NAVGEM, JGSM, AND THE JGSM ENSEMBLE DO NOT BEGIN
THE RECURVE UNTIL AFTER TAU 72. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK OF 75 KTS AT 36 HOURS DUE TO WARM SSTS, LOW VWS SOUTH OF
THE JET, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
TRACK WITH A 873NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE RECURVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE DISSENTING AND TURNING TY 31W TO THE SOUTHWEST,
CARRIED BY LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.
HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK FAVORS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WHICH
TRACK TY 31W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH
EXTENDS DOWN TO 700MB JUST TO THE EAST OF TY 31W, AND EMBED THE
SYSTEM IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WHICH WILL CARRY IT TO THE
NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS SLOWING NORTHEASTWARD FORWARD MOTION AT LATER
TAUS. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
AND SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS AFTER TAU 72, ARE FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Typhoon

#539 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:45 am

2nd death reported on Saipan.
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Re: WPAC: YUTU - Tropical Storm

#540 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:00 pm

Recent ASCAT suggests maximum winds have decreased to near 45 knots.
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