ATL: BARRY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Barry.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVING ONTO THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast
from Cameron to Sabine Pass.

The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been
discontinued.



Hurricane Barry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak
gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m. Doppler radar winds
from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as
well. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and
850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the
possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is
estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its
less than classical appearance in satellite imagery. It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of
the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in
terms of the overall impacts from Barry.

Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5.
The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few
hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through
Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness
in the mid-level ridge to the north. This general motion should
continue until the system dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial
position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance.

Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves
onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical
storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the
coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake
Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry
moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry
will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from
Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north
across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Tennessee Valley.

3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 29.6N 92.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 31.6N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 33.0N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 34.3N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 37.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND WEAKENS
TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES



Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and
Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system
has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial
intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from
Eugene Island and Cypremort Point.

The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue
north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next
30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level
ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should
encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they
dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the
previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models.

Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it
is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in
about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a
remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It
should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will
likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana
coast and the coastal waters.

Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center
definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in
post-analysis.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves
farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long
duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week,
extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Mississippi River
to east of Grand Isle has been discontinued.

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry
continues to move farther inland over Louisiana. Although the
winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds
are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. An automated station near Vermilion
Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the
basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt. Barry will continue
to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into
a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours.

Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global
models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally
northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next
day or so. After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to
turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus
models.

It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry
over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected
to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.


Key Messages:

1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern
Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal
Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and
continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches
or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier
rain that will lead to rapid water rises.

3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 31.0N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the
minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are
estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data,
but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These
lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective
band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and
southeast of the center.

The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but
smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt.
The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast
motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The
NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous
one, due to the initial position being further west than
anticipated.

Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should
become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models
suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and
become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely
shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through
the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central
Louisiana.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.
Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded
areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water
rises.

3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue
along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 93.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that the
minimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds are
estimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data,
but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. These
lingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convective
band over water and near the coast of Louisiana south and
southeast of the center.

The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, but
smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt.
The system is expected to turn northward later today toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeast
motion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. The
NHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previous
one, due to the initial position being further west than
anticipated.

Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it should
become a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF models
suggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection and
become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirely
shortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward through
the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Key Messages:

1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surge
inundation is still occurring along the coast of south-central
Louisiana.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding
are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up
through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.
Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded
areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water
rises.

3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue
along portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Barry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

...BARRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 93.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has
continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to
locate in radar imagery. Surface observations from the Shreveport,
Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position. Although
sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the
past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana
(PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds.
Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to
continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery
of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend
of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA.

Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone
continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant
low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over
the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Barry. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path
inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi,
southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday.
Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central
Louisiana.

2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into
this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana.
However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 32.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1800Z 35.3N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 16/0600Z 36.8N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 38.2N 91.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart