WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
192307Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON MI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND
PGTW). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS
02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 85NM AT TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM,
EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO JUST WEST OF GUAM,
WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITHOUT AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ECMWF AND EEMN
INDICATE A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS NORTHWEST TRACK FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM POLEWARD, AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR. TS 02W IS
FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS SOUTHWEST
OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 200405
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Wutip (02W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022019
205 PM ChST Wed Feb 20 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WUTIP MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Typhoon Warning is now in effect for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Fananu and Ulul in
Chuuk State.

A Typhoon Watch is now in effect for Faraulep in Yap State.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning is now in effect for Puluwat in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Fananu and Ulul in
Chuuk State.

A Typhoon Watch is now in effect for Faraulep in Yap State.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Satawal in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Nukuoro in Pohnpei
State and Lukunor, Losap and Chuuk in Chuuk State.

Residents of the Marianas should carefully monitor the progress
of Tropical Storm Wutip.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...4.7N 154.2E

About 65 miles south-southeast of Lukunor
About 75 miles northwest of Nukuoro
About 180 miles southeast of Losap
About 250 miles southeast of Chuuk
About 305 miles south-southeast of Fananu
About 315 miles west-southwest of Pohnpei
About 390 miles east-southeast of Puluwat
About 410 miles southeast of Ulul
About 885 miles southeast of Guam
About 920 miles southeast of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Wutip was
located near Latitude 4.7 degrees North and Longitude 154.2 degrees
East. Wutip is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected to make a slight
turn toward the west-northwest with little change in forward speed
over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph. Wutip is forecast
to intensify over the next few days, possibly becoming a typhoon
Thursday morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
165 miles north of the center and up to 140 miles south of the
center.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM this afternoon followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 800 PM this evening.

$$

Kleeschulte

[TyphoonNara]

Keeps at T3.0

TPPN10 PGTW 200615

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)

B. 20/0530Z

C. 4.89N

D. 153.78E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. VCNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0.CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[Hayabusa]

As usual the operational GFS loves recurvature but the Euro kills Wutip as it tries to track over the Philippine Sea

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm

STS 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 20 February 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 20 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°35' (4.6°)
E153°25' (153.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 390 km (210 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 20 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°35' (5.6°)
E151°25' (151.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 21 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°55' (6.9°)
E149°10' (149.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 22 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25' (9.4°)
E145°25' (145.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 23 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N11°40' (11.7°)
E142°25' (142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 742 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CORE
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 200545Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE FORMATIVE STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
PARTICULARLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 105 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD OF 125NM AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, THE SPREAD HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST DAY BUT REMAINS LARGE AT TAU 120 (340NM).
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM, EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE
SCENARIO WEST OF GUAM, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT WELL TO THE NORTH, OVER AND EAST OF
MAINLAND JAPAN). GFS AND NAVGEM CONTINUE TO ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE
SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AND THROUGH A STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER GUAM.
ECMWF REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER BUT PRESENTS A MORE REALISTIC,
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH A STAIR-STEP PATTERN AFTER TAU 120 AND
EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A
NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF
A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR. TS 02W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 100 TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 FEB 2019 Time : 104000 UTC
Lat : 5:05:42 N Lon : 152:49:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -71.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.4 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1097906139562418177

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 201139
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
939 PM CHST WED FEB 20 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (02W) PASSING SOUTH OF LOSAP...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE...CHUUK...PULUWAT...ULUL...
FANANU...LOSAP AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE...SATAWAL AND FARAULEP IN
YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR...LOSAP...
CHUUK...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR ARE OCCURRING.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR ARE OCCURRING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM...TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (02W) WAS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 153.1E.
THIS WAS ABOUT 75 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUKUNOR...135 MILES
SOUTH OF LOSAP...190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK AND 815 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CURRENT TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (02W) IS TOWARD THE
WEST...MOVING SOUTH OF LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE IN THE NEXT
6 HOURS AND CHUUK LAGOON OVER NIGHT. WUTIP IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TYPHOON AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 3 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

...NUKUORO...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AVOID ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
REMAIN IN SHELTER UNTIL GIVEN THE ALL CLEAR. ONCE THE ALL CLEAR IS
GIVEN...BE CAREFUL WHEN MOVING AROUND OUTDOORS AS DEBRIS WILL LIKELY
BE SCATTERED AROUND THE ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING... AND INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

...LUKUNOR AND NEARBY ISLANDS...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING. ALL INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
REMAIN IN A SAFE SHELTER UNTIL GIVEN THE ALL CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS COULD
FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INUNDATION OF
1 TO 3 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN.

...CHUUK...LOSAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE PREPARATIONS COMPLETE FOR THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOSAP. AVOID
ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. IF NOT
ALREADY IN A SHELTER...SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS AS FAR
INLAND AS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY. ONCE IN THE SHELTER...REMAIN THERE
UNTIL GIVEN THE ALL CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT LOSAP AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT
CHUUK WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING EAST AT
40 TO 50 KNOTS THIS NEAR MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 13 TO 15 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD REACHING UP TO
17 FEET OVERNIGHT. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE AS THE
STORM PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN...
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF MUDSLIDES ON THE LAGOON HIGH ISLANDS.

...PULUWAT...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS IMMEDIATELY FOR THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AVOID ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS AS FAR
INLAND AS POSSIBLE. ONCE IN THE SHELTER... REMAIN THERE UNTIL GIVEN
THE ALL CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT
25 TO 35 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
40 AND 60 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE STORM
APPROACHES...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 17 FEET. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.TIONS IMMEDIATELY FOR THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION AS YOU
SECURE CANOES AND PRIVATE PROPERTY AS THE STORM APPROACHES. AVOID
ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS AS FAR INLAND AS POSSIBLE. ONCE IN
THE SHELTER...REMAIN THERE UNTIL GIVEN THE ALL CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 55 KT THURSDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
TYPHOON FORCE BETWEEN 60 TO 70 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO BETWEEN 14 AND
18 FEET OVERNIGHT. INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN.

...ULUL AND FANANU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE PREPARATIONS NEARLY COMPLETE FOR THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING FOR FANANU AND BY
EARLY MORNING FOR ULUL. AVOID ANY INTER- ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS AS FAR
INLAND AS POSSIBLE. ONCE IN THE SHELTER...REMAIN THERE UNTIL GIVEN
THE ALL CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE
THURSDAY EVENING AT FANANU AND THURSDAY NIGHT AT ULUL.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET
BY THURSDAY MORNING. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE AS THE
STORM PASSES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.

...SATAWAL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS IMMEDIATELY FOR THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THURSDAY MORNING. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON HOW CLOSE THE CENTER COMES TO
THE ISLAND. AVOID ANY INTER- ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS AS FAR INLAND AS
POSSIBLE. ONCE IN THE SHELTER... REMAIN THERE UNTIL GIVEN THE ALL
CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT
25 TO 35 KNOTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
40 AND 60 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE STORM
APPROACHES...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 17 FEET. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.

...FARAULEP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS IMMEDIATELY FOR THE ONSET OF
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
DANGEROUS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION
AS YOU SECURE CANOES AND PRIVATE PROPERTY AS WUTIP APPROACHES. AVOID
ANY INTER- ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS AS FAR INLAND AS POSSIBLE. ONCE IN
THE SHELTER... REMAIN THERE UNTIL GIVEN THE ALL CLEAR.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TYPHOON FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE STORM APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET OR MORE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN.

$$

KLEESCHULTE/BAQUI/EDSON

[euro6208]

Wow just imagine if this was in the Western Hemisphere talks of a record.

But

This is the same old WPAC...

[cycloneye]

STS 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 20 February 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°00' (5.0°)
E152°35' (152.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°10' (7.2°)
E148°30' (148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N10°00' (10.0°)
E144°50' (144.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N12°20' (12.3°)
E142°20' (142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 February>
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E142°05' (142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 February>
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E142°10' (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Radius of probability circle 540 km (290 NM)

[euro6208]

Last storm to hit or pass us so early in the season of February was way back in 1953! This is something out of the extraordinaire! It was a close miss.

A direct hit would be incredible!

[euro6208]

STS 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 20 February 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°00' (5.0°)
E152°35' (152.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°10' (7.2°)
E148°30' (148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N10°00' (10.0°)
E144°50' (144.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N12°20' (12.3°)
E142°20' (142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 February>
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E142°05' (142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 25 February>
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E142°10' (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Radius of probability circle 540 km (290 NM)

Don't like that turn. Guam and the Marianas would be in for a flooding...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

As of 12:00 UTC Feb 20, 2019:

Location: 5.3°N 152.5°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb

[TyphoonNara]

TPPN10 PGTW 201233

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP)

B. 20/1200Z

C. 5.29N

D. 152.62E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.0. PT IS 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC warning at 55 kts.

[euro6208]

Sucks i have to work during it's passage. 30 floor, the tallest building on Guam. Hope i get some nice photos...

[cycloneye]

Sucks i have to work during it's passage. 30 floor, the tallest building on Guam. Hope i get some nice photos...

Yes,post how are things going there.

[euro6208]

HWRF brings it close to a Cat 4 on approach.