ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[chaser1]

Check out the expanding outflow to the north. Compared to yesterday's sharper west to east strong upper level winds over the N. Texas coast and Northern Gulf, the flow is slowly becoming rounder and bowing more northward. Compliments of the bursting convection process occurring within the west and north side of the gyre envelope, and it's warming of the upper air, and at least temporarily shoving the upper level westerly shear further north.

https://i.imgur.com/fV4FzNs.gif

[NDG]

ASCAT pass from this morning confirms its broad circulation.
It never fails that these monsoonal type systems always seem to take a long time to tighten up.

[wxman57]

Wind shear is VERY strong to its north, from the lower TX coast northward. Any movement in that direction would result in it being ripped apart. All that will survive to reach Texas is moisture. Looks like some rain for us Wed/Thu.

[Cypresso]

Wind shear is VERY strong to its north, from the lower TX coast northward. Any movement in that direction would result in it being ripped apart. All that will survive to reach Texas is moisture. Looks like some rain for us Wed/Thu.

Rain is a concern for quite a bit of Texas at the moment. Houston had a lot of rain a few days ago. Ground is dry on top (I just watered some plants) however, any downpours will wet the top and the run off is really bad so flooding would become a concern.

[SoupBone]

Wind shear is VERY strong to its north, from the lower TX coast northward. Any movement in that direction would result in it being ripped apart. All that will survive to reach Texas is moisture. Looks like some rain for us Wed/Thu.

Rain is a concern for quite a bit of Texas at the moment. Houston had a lot of rain a few days ago. Ground is dry on top (I just watered some plants) however, any downpours will wet the top and the run off is really bad so flooding would become a concern.

The Greater Houston Area hasn't had any significant rain since the beginning of the 2nd week of May. The ground is cracking in most non-watered areas.

[chaser1]

True, still broad but even after removing potential contaminated flags, i'd say one can now make the argument for a more consolidated 2-3 degree wide COC starting to take shape. That second lobe of vorticity closer to the coast should continue to rotate south moving inland during the afternoon and evening, causing pressures to rise there, and inducing an increased pressure gradient in the west quadrant of the developing COC. Just how quickly will likely be dependent on the level of co-located convection firing close to center.

[Cypresso]

Wind shear is VERY strong to its north, from the lower TX coast northward. Any movement in that direction would result in it being ripped apart. All that will survive to reach Texas is moisture. Looks like some rain for us Wed/Thu.

Rain is a concern for quite a bit of Texas at the moment. Houston had a lot of rain a few days ago. Ground is dry on top (I just watered some plants) however, any downpours will wet the top and the run off is really bad so flooding would become a concern.

The Greater Houston Area hasn't had any significant rain since the beginning of the 2nd week of May. The ground is cracking in most non-watered areas.

I am sure the whole city has not had that kind of rain, however, we, in Southside Place, had a lot recently. If you are from the area, you know how the cells build quickly and it is nothing to receive several inches of rain. As for the ground cracking....A day after rain the ground cracks in Houston, at least in the various places I have lived. The water table is under the cracked top soil. Today, I watered what is near the surface with their roots. My deeper plants/shrubs are showing no need of water. But, that being said, I am not here to argue with anyone. I will say the rain we had the other day flooded our street for well over two hours.

[StormLogic]

Ground is no where near dry here in Southeast Texas. We had a downpour few weeks ago that flooded the entire street with 5" of rainfall. With that being said, all the rivers are full and even going over the banks here. We're fully saturated

[SoupBone]

Wind shear is VERY strong to its north, from the lower TX coast northward. Any movement in that direction would result in it being ripped apart. All that will survive to reach Texas is moisture. Looks like some rain for us Wed/Thu.

This is definitely NOT the type of system/setup we'd want to see in Texas over August or September!

[SoupBone]

Rain is a concern for quite a bit of Texas at the moment. Houston had a lot of rain a few days ago. Ground is dry on top (I just watered some plants) however, any downpours will wet the top and the run off is really bad so flooding would become a concern.

The Greater Houston Area hasn't had any significant rain since the beginning of the 2nd week of May. The ground is cracking in most non-watered areas.

I am sure the whole city has not had that kind of rain, however, we, in Southside Place, had a lot recently. If you are from the area, you know how the cells build quickly and it is nothing to receive several inches of rain. As for the ground cracking....A day after rain the ground cracks in Houston, at least in the various places I have lived. The water table is under the cracked top soil. Today, I watered what is near the surface with their roots. My deeper plants/shrubs are showing no need of water. But, that being said, I am not here to argue with anyone. I will say the rain we had the other day flooded our street for well over two hours.

Definitely not the arguing type, sorry if it came across that way. I'm only going by the records from the Harris County Flood Warning site. Maybe the're inaccurate or not fully calculating the rainfall totals. It shows .8" of rain since May 10 for your area.

[TheProfessor]

First year that my parents will have to pay close attention to hurricane season. They moved to Covington, La in February. Anyways I've been here since I graduated college and I know that the local rivers are still fairly high and my family and I encountered a flooded road on Friday when when we were driving around where the Tchefuncte river flows into Lake Pontchartrain. Not to mention the ongoing flooding in Baton Rouge right now. Anything like what the 12z GFS is predicting precipitation wise could end up being very bad down here.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1135633109381197824

[Aric Dunn]

Increased curvature on the NE to S quads. looks like some better convergence as well. may see a convective boost soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is starting to increase with our the llc.

[lrak]

Was about to leave the office and finally it looks like something for sure is beginning to happen.

I would love a nice over head high wave with some offshore winds

[Aric Dunn]

Its about to pop....

[drezee]

LLC is tighten on the vis. Love to watch these naked swirls forming. You get to see cyclogenesis...

[lrak]

Its about to pop....

I can't believe it, the thing got some super unleaded. I remember watching an invest for days and at the end it was a tiny tinny swirl over the Corpus Christi Bay

Satellite refresh time...

[Cpv17]

There’s no convection near the center of the storm.. nothing really to see here right now. It’s a sloppy disorganized mess.

[Aric Dunn]

There’s no convection near the center of the storm.. nothing really to see here right now. It’s a sloppy disorganized mess.

then your not looking in right place..